Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Earthling]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

[Hammy]

Counterpoint: 90% of Twitter progressives political twitter are dumb as rocks, and I say this as a socialist myself.

FTFY. I've been blocking people ever since the primary who so much as even mention the election or politics.

[Alben Barkley]

Question for the '2022 is an inevitable red wave' people; Will people really be eager to punish Dems if the economy is booming, they got the vaccine and life is back to normal? Who will seriously want to return to the sh*tshow of 2020? Republicans will need something fresh and exciting, maybe taking parts of Trump's appeal but not just going all in on Trump. Maybe classic midterm dynamics enable them to win a sufficiently gerrymandered House and Senate seats that are to the right of the nation, but if Democrats get the country back on track they aren't inevitably going to be swept out.

Also I honestly think Democratic voter habits may have been permanently changed by the events of the past four years. Seems people FINALLY understand you can’t just show up once every four years and call it a day. This is the first real evidence of that, but if it continues it’s very good for us. Also if the trends we see here (suburban gains holding for Dems, rural turnout dropping without Trump on the ballot, Latino vote swinging back to Dems) continue, that is very VERY good for us. All of a sudden the Senate and the Electoral College may not even be so R-leaning by default anymore. Especially if the big one (Texas) finally falls... Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but I really am feeling a hell of a lot better about the state of the party and the country than I did in November. Trump’s overperformance may well have been an anomaly, and it still wasn’t enough, and it still dragged Rs down in states like AZ and GA.

[musicblind]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

The reason Trumpism doesn't work without Trump is it pretends to be a populist movement, but it's really demagoguery wearing the mask of populism.

[Alben Barkley]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

Iowa and Oho are gonna be tough to win back regardless but maybe Trump did better there than most Rs would. Florida is a very... special state that does its own thing and I’ve given up trying to predict it. But there is some reason to think Trump may have been particularly well-suited for it in a way future Rs won’t be, and if the state Dems can get their s—t together, it may not be gone for good.

[Non Swing Voter]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

Yes.  But I don't necessarily think Iowa and Ohio are winnable going forward.  Florida is.  Georgia clearly is.  North Carolina and Texas are definitely in play.  I think we need to also remember that Biden won Georgia.  There is also an element of Georgia fundamentally transitioning to a blue state regardless of Trump.  It is likely the next Virginia.  Georgia is Virginia in 2008.

[Anna Komnene]

Warnock and Ossoff were a great pairing for this race imo. They each had their own style and appeal that complemented each candidate's weak points and put together a coalition strong enough to win both races. Warnock mobilizes the black churches, brings the Christian Left, progressives, and African Americans. Jon Ossoff mobilizes suburbia and Jewish people and has the appeal for people more into moderates campaigns (and also nerds?).

Of course, Trump helped both by maximizing terror among Biden voters for the past two months, so that literally anyone who might be interested in their message was tuned in. Still, I think the dynamic of the two candidates helped a lot, especially with them embracing one another the way they did. I'm not sure it would have been the same had only one been running at a time. Thankfully that scenario is only a what-if!

[Alben Barkley]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

Yes.  But I don't necessarily think Iowa and Ohio are winnable going forward.  Florida is.  Georgia clearly is.  North Carolina and Texas are definitely in play.  I think we need to also remember that Biden won Georgia.  There is also an element of Georgia fundamentally transitioning to a blue state regardless of Trump.  It is likely the next Virginia.  Georgia is Virginia in 2008.

True but looks like these senate candidates are gonna do better than Biden did against Trump, largely because of lower R turnout without Trump while D turnout was still robust and the suburbs didn’t budge at all back towards Rs without Trump. So seems like the low propensity rural WWC voters only show up in droves for Trump, while the high propensity suburbanites show up and vote for Dems now regardless of Trump being on the ballot (also seen in 2018). If anything like that holds across the nation, very good for us.

[LimoLiberal]

Webster County with a legendary fake, the first county fully reporting and the county with the largest swing towards Republicans from November.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346734313367359489?s=20

[gf20202]

Does anybody have an estimate of how much vote is left to count in GA? Nate Cohn on twitter was seemingly suggesting that he doesn't have much faith in the model's guess there of 76k, which would have gotten get Ossoff to a 1.1% margin of victory or so.

CNN went through the following, which are mostly day of absentee votes--
3k Chatham
3.5k DeKalb county
4k absentee + some other kinds of ballots from Fulton
? Cobb County
4,800 Gwinett County

And then 17k overseas and military ballots are outstanding, not all of which will be received or counted.

Anyone having anything else to add? It seems likely Ossoff gets to above .5 but perhaps not as high as the needle currently indicates.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346735555183140864

[NOVA Green]

Pretty clear now that most of the ballots are in, looking clearly like a 2-0 DEM Sweep.

What we got left?

Fulton--- 7.5k Mail-in-ballots
DeKalb--- ~12k Ballots
Chatham-- (7k ballots    )

Overseas Ballots- 17k   (Many of which might not be received by Friday).

Provisional Ballots-  8k (Likely accepted out of some 12k received).

Am I missing something?

Pretty clear not only did Warnock win, but also appears that Ossoff won as well.

Anybody doubting this needs to watch the Harold & Kumar Movie where they go down and smoke some high quality Bud with Bush Sr.  "Alabama Hooch"

PUB Atlas / Talk Election Posters wanna cry and shed tears, fine... got an old buddy of mine Hank Williams Sr. who had something to say on the topic...

[VAR]

All of this is Young Kim's fault.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I’ve just changed my avatar to I-GA out of respect for what GA did today. Very cool, not gonna lie.

As for Rs, you should actually be happy. You got rid of Trump, and now McConnell. Not to mention the two despicable human beings that were the GOP Senators from GA. You now have  the unexpected chance to replace all of them (or at least some of them) with some worthy conservatives.

[Oryxslayer]

Are the results in Georgia a sign that Trumpism without Trump isn't going anywhere? That it's more about him and any real movement at all.

In 2018 the Democrats picked up a lot of seats, like in Iowa, that voted for Trump twice. In 2020 he was on the ticket and the Republicans win. But now, he is not on the ballot and again they lose.

Should that give Democrats hope that states like Iowa, Ohio and Florida are not really gone but that something special about Trump appealed to the voters in these states?

Or its a case that Trump has done damage to the GOP over the past two months that they may not be able to repair. These states appear to have been moving towards the GOP or stable which it comes to partisan bias (except maybe for unique cases like Cubans), and 2020 was simply the affirmation to any uncertainties in loyalties between 2016 and 2018. However, Trump's decision to challenge the results and the GOP's decision to keep indulging him may have led to some of their most loyal voters believing that there is no point participating in the electoral process since it obviously rigged. The data certainly suggests something like this: 2021 runoff turnout as a percentage of 2020 Presidential turnout is comparatively worse in the most GOP rural areas. In other rural areas, the raw vote dropoff is almost always worse for the GOP than Dems. In suburban and urban areas, the dropoffs are closer to equivalent between the two parties. I spotted this trend when the first counties began finalizing their totals, and I have been running with it all night cause it's so glairing and the above explanation is potentially the most logical conclusion.

[soundchaser]

As a side note: I don’t understand why Feinstein hasn’t retired yet. She’s going to be a mess as Judiciary Committee chair. (That said, there are some other ranking members to be excited about.)

[gf20202]

As a side note: I don’t understand why Feinstein hasn’t retired yet. She’s going to be a mess as Judiciary Committee chair. (That said, there are some other ranking members to be excited about.)

She announced in late November that she was stepping down as judiciary chair.

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue, expectedly, seems to have overperformed the most in the counties with the most white college grads (Oconee, Cobb, Hall). Loeffler overperformed the most in the far NW corner (Chatt media market/MTG land) and the extremely old school interior SE parts of the state around Waycross. Maybe 7-8 years back this is where the counties were that had still had segregated proms.

I actually wrote a piece on segregated proms in HS for our school paper (circa 2004). Nothing of the sort existed in Northwest GA in my lifetime (probably in large part because of a lack of black residents), but the SE interior definitely still had plenty of them throughout the early 2000s. Places like Toombs and Montgomery were infamous for them.

The high school I went to had "segregated" proms back in the early 1980s, but it was more because as non-official private parties, it was possible, tho obviously not legal, to have alcohol at them than any strong desire to keep them segregated.

Yes, this was the case for many of the schools in GA that still had them in the 21st century as well: they were "private" affairs held off-campus (that just so happened to also be promoted on campus by staff).

[soundchaser]

As a side note: I don’t understand why Feinstein hasn’t retired yet. She’s going to be a mess as Judiciary Committee chair. (That said, there are some other ranking members to be excited about.)

She announced in late November that she was stepping down as judiciary chair.

Oh right, whoops. I assume Durbin will be chair, then?

[Alcibiades]

Just waking up now to the news of the Dem victory. This is hilarious. Couldn’t have happened to two worse GOPers.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anybody have an estimate of how much vote is left to count in GA? Nate Cohn on twitter was seemingly suggesting that he doesn't have much faith in the model's guess there of 76k, which would have gotten get Ossoff to a 1.1% margin of victory or so.

CNN went through the following, which are mostly day of absentee votes--
3k Chatham
3.5k DeKalb county
4k absentee + some other kinds of ballots from Fulton
? Cobb County
4,800 Gwinett County

And then 17k overseas and military ballots are outstanding, not all of which will be received or counted.

Anyone having anything else to add? It seems likely Ossoff gets to above .5 but perhaps not as high as the needle currently indicates.

There's still got to be at least a couple thousand votes out in Gilmer County (probably mail, given that it currently has Perdue 88-12 and it was Trump 81-18).

Trends would suggest there could be around 10k left in Henry County as well.

[Tender Branson]

Question so I get the German Wiki entries right:

Is Warnock the first African-American ever to win a statewide race in GA ? Or only statewide for a federal race (excl. Governor, statewide dog-catcher etc.) ?

And I guess he's the first Black Senator from GA ever, right ?

[Adam Griffin]

Question so I get the German Wiki entries right:

Is Warnock the first African-American ever to win a statewide race in GA ? Or only statewide for a federal race (excl. Governor, statewide dog-catcher etc.) ?

And I guess he's the first Black Senator from GA ever, right ?

First black federal candidate to win statewide in GA; first black Democratic Senator elected in the South.

(Both Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond won statewide elections as black men in the past for Attorney General and Labor Commissioner, respectively)

[gf20202]

Asked and answered. SOS says about 25k left:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346745600159707136