Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[redjohn]

Y'all. US exit polls are always inaccurate, especially before polls have even closed. They adjust it as votes come in, literally every single time. I wouldn't make a single prediction based on these. Remember the exit polls in November that showed like 80% of Americans wanting to restrict gun access? Didn't mean anything then and these don't mean much now.

[musicblind]

Ok at this point this thread is full of people either setting their expectations way too low or high based on nothing of substance. This will remain a tossup till polls close at 7:00, though I personally believe the GOP are slight favorites

I agree with this, and I'm guilty as charged, but I can't help it. I'm not doing it on purpose.

[EastwoodS]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

[pppolitics]

The exit poll is consistent with a 50.5% - 49.5% Republican victory, according to my calculation, based on November results.
The result is close and the remaining 2 hours of voting could change things.

CNN exit polls are junk.

Hmm...

[Horus]

The exit poll is consistent with a 50.5% - 49.5% Republican victory, according to my calculation, based on November results.
The result is close and the remaining 2 hours of voting could change things.

CNN exit polls are junk.

Hmm...

A poll can get an accurate result and still have junky methodology.

[DrScholl]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

No.

[pantsaregood]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

There's nothing to run off. Unless the vote is tied (in which case I have no idea what happens), one of the candidates is guaranteed to get 50% + 1 votes or more.

[redjohn]

The exit poll is consistent with a 50.5% - 49.5% Republican victory, according to my calculation, based on November results.
The result is close and the remaining 2 hours of voting could change things.

I hope this is a joke, because it's hilarious that you're predicting results *to the decimal point* because of exit polls that will be off (we don't know in which direction)

[Stuart98]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

You got pranked my dude.

[SCNCmod]

Does anyone remember if the 1st exit polls in November also seemed very positive for Republicans?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I get the exit polls have issues but can anyone with a straight face say that Dems are going to win with an exit poll that has a 13 point GOP advantage? And Black voters only 20%? And young voters being 13%?.... try not to let your feelings on me distract you from the blatant facts and

What, those aren’t even the numbers the exit polls said. I personally think Rs are the slightest of favorites, but at this point you’re just spewing out things that are untrue. You can argue Republicans are solid favorites if you want but at least use real data points

[BudgieForce]

Does anyone remember if the 1st exit polls in November also seemed very positive for Republicans?

Yes. The one part I remember offhand is that the Economy was ahead of Coronavirus in terms of issues important to voters.

[musicblind]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

You got pranked my dude.

And thank Gosh... I don't think I could take six more months of this crap.

[musicblind]

Does anyone remember if the 1st exit polls in November also seemed very positive for Republicans?

Yes, they were. The FIRST exit polls were way out there.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1346588703804817411

If anyone wants to extrapolate the topline, its 50/50. So enjoy that.

[wbrocks67]

I get the exit polls have issues but can anyone with a straight face say that Dems are going to win with an exit poll that has a 13 point GOP advantage? And Black voters only 20%? And young voters being 13%?.... try not to let your feelings on me distract you from the blatant facts and

what are you smoking? STOP.

[Horus]

Yep, we aren't gonna know who won until at least tomorrow night.

[wbrocks67]

The exit poll is consistent with a 50.5% - 49.5% Republican victory, according to my calculation, based on November results.
The result is close and the remaining 2 hours of voting could change things.

Can't really compare though, we don't know if per say, the White electorate is the same white electorate as Nov. (could be more college+ white, less college+ white, etc)

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why but betting markets have swung wildly in Perdue's favor (57-43)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Can we all just put MillennialModerate on ignore and stop clogging up the thread with his quotes

[Horus]

Not sure why but betting markets have swung wildly in Perdue's favor (57-43)

Probably because political betting markets have almost no basis in reality.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1346591543558369282

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1346588703804817411
If anyone wants to extrapolate the topline, its 50/50. So enjoy that.

I still think Perdue will outrun Loeffler so to me 50/50 for Loeffler/Warnock is not a good sign for Ossoff.

[musicblind]

Not sure why but betting markets have swung wildly in Perdue's favor (57-43)

Wow, they really have, but Warnock is leading in his? How can the markets think Perdue is so heavily favored (now at 61 percent), but Warnock wins his race?

[Illini Moderate]

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1346591543558369282

Yikes