Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Matty]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm officially back in my election week state of being unable to do or think about anything except the runoffs. It's officially time to go outside lol. Come on GA, you can save the 2020s.

The idea that a 50-50 senate will “save” the 2020s opposed to a 52-48 R is rather silly.

Fine. It'll allow Biden to accomplish literally anything and shore up the integrity of our democracy again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dem estimated margin continues to shrink; now down to D+8.1. Despite this, Republicans aren't doing a very good job at making up their defecit.



Today is the last day or early voting; I suspect it'll bump D's margin down to +8 or so, but then late arriving mail ballot bumps it up to +9 or even +10 before election day.

The GOP seems on track to need to net about 300k votes on e-day

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

You hope

The filibuster may well be abolished and certainly will be for adding new states.

[prag_prog]

The first thing that needs to happen if Dems win both GA races is Breyer to retire...you don't want another RBG scenario

[KaiserDave]

We now must divide the runoff and the Ossoff Perdue race into two eras. The Pre YK Era and the Post YK Era.

As you can see below



David Perdue has irrevocably associated himself with Notorious Homophobe Young Kim. Therefore he can no longer be considered a strong candidate. Once Ossoff airs ads with this photo, his favorables will collapse, and become even lower than Weak Candidate Kelly LOLffler.

Western Dem's Uncle, a Obama-Obama-Clinton-Abrams-McBath-Biden-McBath voter, but also a loyal Perdue supporter, has already torn up his Perdue mail in ballot, and plans to vote on Election Day for Jon Ossoff.

Perdue no longer bounces to the beat of Buckhead. He no longer fingers the pulse of Forsyth. He is no longer the champ of Cobb. Post YK Perdue is just another weak candidate.

I suspect these will be the results (non Atlas colors).

Jon Ossoff: 59.3%
David Perdue: 40.7%

Note that Perdue will still have some residual support in the Atlanta metro, but his support for YK homophobia will hurt him there and everywhere else. This election is over.

Bye bye David Perdue. RIP Former King of the Suburbs.

[Adam Griffin]

Why are Hispanic registered voters in GA such lazy-ass voters ?

Their turnout so far is 20%, compared to 40% each for Whites and Blacks and 35% for Asians.

Latinos are disproportionately young and young people disproportionately vote on Election Day. Still, being somebody who organizes in the most-Latino county in the state, a great deal of it comes down to a lack of concern/attention paid when it's not a presidential contest (again, young people). We saw huge drop-offs in the 2018 runoff and the broader trend appears nationally in every contest.

[VAR]

imo it'll be an ar-sen 2010 redux



Also my friend Jennifer in Cobb County (whom I mentioned before), is certainly not going to vote for Perdue (if he somehow wins) in 2026 even if it's a BIDEN MIDTERM.

Sad, yet another titan slayed.

[KaiserDave]

imo it'll be an ar-sen 2008 redux

Maybe if Blanche Lincoln ran ads on radio host Young Kim homophobia she would have won.

[Bootes Void]

imo it'll be an ar-sen 2008 redux

2010*.

In 2008 Pryor was unopposed

[Matty]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

You hope

The filibuster may well be abolished and certainly will be for adding new states.

Where will the votes be to abolish it? Manchin says no. Sinema as well.

A 50-50 senate will maybe increase chances of judges getting confirmed, but those chances were already high. Collins, murkowski, etc will be voting for any qualified judge.

It’s going to be Trump and Obama era 2.0.

Filibuster will prevent any big legislation. Tax reform done through reconciliation

[prag_prog]

Some people have talked about possibility of Dems cannibalizing their EDay vote by voting early...but data doesn't support that argument.

So far, around 96,000 people who voted on EDay in Nov have voted early in the runoff. This group isn't overhwhelmingly Black. Breakdown of this group is 56% White, 30% Black (which is fairly close to actual electorate so far). Another data point being, around 19,000 of this group voted in R primaries and 17,000 voted in Dem primaries. So, it's not like the group is Dem leaning either.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

You hope

The filibuster may well be abolished and certainly will be for adding new states.

Where will the votes be to abolish it? Manchin says no. Sinema as well.

We'll see. At the very least, rules around the filibuster could change to force an actual filibuster every time. Or the Dems put up reasonable legislation, the GOP blocks everything, and Manchin and Sinema get to say the Republicans left us with no other choice.

[xavier110]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

Manchin and Sinema are lockstep D rubberstamp votes when it matters. To think otherwise is nuts. Manchin is calling it quits in 2024 & sees the writing on the wall. Sinema is riding a demographic wave in the hopes her record doesn't matter, and is really (obviously) a blue-to-the-bone lib.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's are going full in on a Fillibuster repeal, Van HOLLEN, Hoyer, Eleanor Holmes Norton are going all in for DC Statehood and said that at the beginning of the 117th Congress that they are going for 51st DC Statehood and force Majority Leader Schumer hand on MAnchin

The House already passed DC Statehood on 4th of July, that's why the Rs keep saying Perdue and Loeffler are gonna win on this forum, they know DC Statehood and PR statehood are yo fir grabs

Biden vows to sign it, the D's were tricked into not going for DC Statehood in 2009/ and they want Election day a Holiday to replace Columbus Day and they want Eleanor Holmes Norton a Rep with voting power

French Republican especially has been a Doomer on D's chances

[prag_prog]

I think Ossoff has ran the best possible campaign he could in the last 3 months...idk whether that's enough for him to win but I don't really have much complaints regarding him or his campaign(*cough* Gideon & Cal *cough*). He has also gotten better at this with more experience in campaigning.

On the GOP side, these two must be some of the weakest GOP candidates. Loeffler is so fake and robotic. I expected Perdue to be much stronger but he just seems so generic or maybe even worse. I still think these races are pretty much tossups but I'm bit more optimistic on Dems now when compared to a month ago

Yeah, I feel like objectively Dems have run the way better campaign, and if they lose, not sure there was much more they could've done. Given what has happened in the campaign so far, it has all the makings of a Dem win, giving Trumps antics, The Dem energy, Loeffler/Perdue having more "gaffes"..

Warnock seems to have had some controversial stuff (atleast for some people) he said in the past which GOP has been using in their ads but since Ossoff is so young, it's probably been hard for GOP to find any dirt on him.

[WD]

Today the beginning of the end for the Republican Party. Young Kim will be their undoing.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't know man, I think Perdue loses by a margin that makes Blanche's loss look like a nailbiter.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Perdue no longer bounces to the beat of Buckhead. He no longer fingers the pulse of Forsyth. He is no longer the champ of Cobb. Post YK Perdue is just another weak candidate.

Alpharetta has a new alpha male.

[WD]

Just look at this, guys.




It’s over, Perdue might as well start writing his concession speech. It’s not even going to be close, and don’t even get me started on LOLffler, who was DOA from the start. If Chuck Schumer is Majority Leader in January, he has no one but Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) to thank.

[KaiserDave]

In the Post YK era, Democrats only win.

[VAR]

Gideon should've tied Collins to Young Kim instead

[KaiserDave]

Whoever reported my post is probably a Young Kim sock

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

You hope

The filibuster may well be abolished and certainly will be for adding new states.

Where will the votes be to abolish it? Manchin says no. Sinema as well.

A 50-50 senate will maybe increase chances of judges getting confirmed, but those chances were already high. Collins, murkowski, etc will be voting for any qualified judge.

It’s going to be Trump and Obama era 2.0.

Filibuster will prevent any big legislation. Tax reform done through reconciliation

We’ve never lost a major vote where it all came down to Manchin.  He’s with us whenever we need him, especially since he really wants to chair the Senate Energy Committee.  Sinema is in a Democratic-trending state and is about as principled as Lindsay Graham, she’ll flip flop on this so fast it’ll make your head spin.

[Brittain33]

This is now the megathread for:

• Discussion of Georgia senate seats runoff(s)
• Comments about Young Kim campaigning with David Perdue

Feel free to post the latter in this thread instead of starting new threads.