Arizona megathread

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I've heard rumblings that Phoenix mayor Kate Gallego wants to be Governor, though 2022 is a bit early in her term.

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As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

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Unrelated but how is a 31-year old going to run a state's DOJ? 25 is virtually the youngest you can be out of law school alone and even that is assuming you went directly from undergrad and are young for your grade level.

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One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

I think Kari Lake is a good example of someone who is a flawed candidate but a good campaigner. She's scandal ridden, says lots of outrageous things and is generally crazy but she knows how to turn all that off when she has to.

Lake's core strength is that she has immense experience on camera and delivering lines to an audience in clear, concise, and compelling ways (Mark Ronchetti, Maria Elvira Salazar, Ashley Hinson, etc. are the same way) - a good speaker can make anything sound good.

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I think it also confirms the theory that "Most Insane=/=Most un-Electable". It of course can (Mastriano, etc) but those candidates have their own problems along with it.

Most "insane" candidates live and operate in echo chambers with no self-awareness or handlers around them pushing them in better strategic directions. Lake notably does not do this, and her long pre-political career (in media no less) is likely a key reason.

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Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

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Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

By July, over two-thirds of her total campaign staff had quit due to a toxic work environment, so there's that

That is interesting, I hadn’t heard this. Can you link to the story (preferably from a local outlet if possible)?

[Pollster]

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

By July, over two-thirds of her total campaign staff had quit due to a toxic work environment, so there's that

That is interesting, I hadn’t heard this. Can you link to the story (preferably from a local outlet if possible)?

Here: https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/i-cant-believe-i-even-survived-that

Arizona Agenda is the best local pub for political coverage. Also broke Marco Lopez $$$ scandal and the “audit” report that said Biden won (again, with more votes this time).

Interesting. I'm surprised this is the only outlet that's said anything about this (not dismissing or questioning it - this sort of "behind the curtain" stuff is often like catnip for local papers, so it's strange).

Also notable here that all of the complaints are directed at the CM and virtually everybody interviewed spoke very positively of Hobbs - doesn't really have to do with the "inept campaign" narrative but is a nuance that you don't normally see in stories like this.