Arizona megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lake as nominee definitely makes a Democratic flip more likely, though I'm still somewhat worried over 2024 to be honest. It's kind of a high risk-high reward for Democrats.

Personally I'd rate this as Tossup or Tilt Republican now, down from Lean Republican.

I don’t think Hobbs has what it takes to flip the seat in this environment, but it’ll be close.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

Yes and no.  Kelly is clearly in the driver's seat in his race and will likely lead the AZ Democratic ticket this year, but I think Fontes will probably outrun Hobbs by a few points.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).

I mean, not to Hobbs's fault, she probably would still lose the debate even if she was a great debater. Lake is insane but she has decades of media training. Even if Hobbs was fantastic in a debate, it wouldn't be easy to just "expose Lake as a fraud"

No, it's her fault.  She's run a horrible campaign and likely blown a very winnable race.  The debate issue is just a symptom of widespread dysfunction throughout Hobbs' campaign.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

By July, over two-thirds of her total campaign staff had quit due to a toxic work environment, so there's that

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trying to pull a fast one like Masters did. Must not like the polling.

https://twitter.com/LaurieRoberts/status/1577439123261992960

WOW!

That really tells you everything you need to know about how salient and widespread the backlash against Dobbs remains.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Lake and especially Masters have fallen flat on their faces every time they attempted to do this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The mistake you’re all making is assuming she believes any of this.  Lake very clearly doesn’t actually believe most of the nonsense she spews and is just desperately trying to keep the grift going as long as possible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The mistake you’re all making is assuming she believes any of this.  Lake very clearly doesn’t actually believe most of the nonsense she spews and is just desperately trying to keep the grift going as long as possible.

Ι don't know about that. According to reports she was one of the few true believers of Trump's "stolen election" BS.

From what I’ve read, it’s a bit of an open secret that she didn’t become a Republican until 2012 (and still donated to some Democrats after that) and was basically a generic center-right establishment-friendly Republican until she realized she could make money/potentially acquire power by going all in on the Trump crazy train.  Now that she’s gone all in and burned all her non-Trumpy bridges in the process, she can’t acknowledge that the jig is up (I.e. that she blew it by losing the Governor’s race) because she has nothing to fallback on, especially since she wants to remain politically relevant.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The mistake you’re all making is assuming she believes any of this.  Lake very clearly doesn’t actually believe most of the nonsense she spews and is just desperately trying to keep the grift going as long as possible.

Contrary to popular belief, it is much easier to pull off a grift if you believe in it. That way you feel much less guilt

I doubt sociopaths feel much guilt, regardless of what they believe