Arizona megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593096137069989889?s=20&t=RmyIerR...

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.

Yes my bad for messing up the numbering. It seems like the GOP have too many potential liabilities to be able to hold the state legislature. The only remotely competitive seat that seems to be shifting their way is heavily Hispanic district 23 which takes in Yuma and some exurban Hispanic parts of Tucson and Pheonix. It voted for Clinton by 19, Biden by 13 but Dems only held it by 7 this cycle. It's yet to be seen how much of that was due to low Hispanic turnout and how much was due to fundamental shifts.

Ds losing a house seat in 23 is shameful. House would be tied right now. Ducey lost it twice.

Dems had a lot of narrow wins and narrow losses at the state legislative level nationally. For now though Hobbs has the veto pineapple which is what matters. Rmbr in AZ everything will be up in 2024 in terms of the state legislature, whereas if we lost say the MI state senate, we wouldn’t get another shot until 2026.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/drmiller166/status/1593049875738169345

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

It's not looking good. She's down by about 8K votes. It would take a miracle for her to pull ahead.

It sucks because not only does her losing bode ill for public education in Arizona, but she was the best performing statewide Democrat in 2018 and for her to go from that to outright losing reelection just sucks. I feel bad for her.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

It's not looking good. She's down by about 8K votes. It would take a miracle for her to pull ahead.

It sucks because not only does her losing bode ill for public education in Arizona, but she was the best performing statewide Democrat in 2018 and for her to go from that to outright losing reelection just sucks. I feel bad for her.

Lingering resentment for school closings during the pandemic, perhaps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593058711630598145

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593058711630598145

How soon are they going to try and pass something to force Californians to move back?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

It's not looking good. She's down by about 8K votes. It would take a miracle for her to pull ahead.

It sucks because not only does her losing bode ill for public education in Arizona, but she was the best performing statewide Democrat in 2018 and for her to go from that to outright losing reelection just sucks. I feel bad for her.

Lingering resentment for school closings during the pandemic, perhaps?

Horne used to be in the position. He has name recognition + parental choice argument young kin used maybe

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593098578960211968

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593058711630598145

people leave California

Republicans: HAHAHAHAHA

they move to Arizona and vote Democrat

Republicans: WAIT NO!

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593058711630598145

LOL, sore losers.

This is like Dems blaming the influx of older, conservative whites from the Midwest into FL on their losses there. Own the loss, do some autopsy and move on.

[prag_prog]

she is not conceding

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1593251949201084423

[GeorgiaModerate]

she is not conceding

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1593251949201084423

Situations like this always remind me of this exchange from near the end of the (wonderful) 1973 movie version of The Three Musketeers:

Milady de Winter: Your Eminence is a great player -- great enough to lose. I do not like to lose.

Cardinal Richelieu: You must suit yourself, Milady. But if in the end you should, do it with a becoming grace.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593279195110522880?s=20&t=Be6FgXZ...

Recount is guaranteed, but the gap is unlikely to change.

[wbrocks67]

That's really depressing that she's the only incumbent among them, and she lost too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lake tries her own "stop the steal" type rally outside th state capitol and gets less than 20 people to show up. LOL.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-elections-2022/kari-lake-election-deniers-protest-arizona-b2226290.html

[Podgy the Bear]

Obviously a woman with serious mental issues.  She and her MAGA brethren need help.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593340658281947136?s=20&t=Be6FgXZ...

Most of the small remainder is Maricopa and Blue counties.

[Utah Neolib]

Do we have any idea what the remaining Maricopa ballots look like? I really hope Mayes wins.

[Spectator]

Anyone have Hobbs-Lake by legislative district? Hobbs probably won a majority since she dominated among swing white moderates. Lake seems to have retained most of the Trump 2020 hispanic shift. Kelly did noticeably better than Biden in hispanic precincts.

[prag_prog]

Hobbs's margin in AZ is almost same as Biden's margin in 2020..I initially was wondering if there were some change in coalitions but when I looked at how Hobbs performance compares against Biden's 2020 performance county wise, it's crazy how similar both the performances are. Except couple of counties, Hobbs margin in every county is almost exactly same as Biden's margin (+/- 2).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-arizona-governor.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone have Hobbs-Lake by legislative district? Hobbs probably won a majority since she dominated among swing white moderates. Lake seems to have retained most of the Trump 2020 hispanic shift. Kelly did noticeably better than Biden in hispanic precincts.

Probably not going to be released until counting is completely done.

[Alben Barkley]

Hoffman losing prevented this from being a Democratic sweep of the statewide offices, right?

Also the GOP has majorities of just 1 in both the state House and Senate... damn, so close to a blue wave completely overtaking the state!

As for this nonsense about Californians turning AZ blue, doesn't even make sense considering most of the Californians leaving the state actually lean right and are trying to escape liberal policies. Many retirees move to AZ too, just like Florida. No, the GOP just needs to accept that they have turned off a ton of independents and moderate Rs in the state. In part by being one of the craziest state parties and in part by tying themselves to a man who vocally hated John McCain.

[prag_prog]

I saw an interview of Hobbs which I think she gave yesterday..she definitely isn't the most comfortable when it comes to public speaking...was stumbling a bit here and there.

I really wonder how effective Hobbs can be considering GOP still has majority in state house & senate. As an outsider, it looks like there are some issues with public schools with regards to funding, teachers pay, facilities..based on the interview, this does seem to be Hobbs primary issue but wonder if the legislature is gonna work with her on this. It also looks like AZ state legislature slashed state income tax rates last year (was progressive tax rates from 2.5% to 4.5% and instead now became flat 2.5%) and Hobbs can't do anything repealing the tax cuts of top bracket.

One of the reasons I have been following this race bit closely is also because I have been planning to move to West but haven't decided which state...mostly planning to move to WA or AZ