Arizona megathread

[xavier110]

I told myself to write my predictions down and, I swear, went down a rabbit hole. It’s hard to make them “consistent” (e.g., how does Fontes win without Hobbs). But I’m going with my gut here!

My expectation: the initial drop will be favorable to Dems. They need double digit leads to have any shot. If Kelly is not +10 out of Maricopa initially, he’s probably screwed.

My other expectation is that Kelly and Hobbs will be more tightly connected than you’d expect from most polls. HOWEVER, I do not know what that means downballot. The Sinema/Kelly/Biden voters have shown enormous willingness to vote Ds for a couple races at the top and then bleed red. That is the true mystery of this year.

—————

Senate: Kelly (D) 50 / Masters (R) 48.5 / Victor (L) 1.5

AZ-01: Schweikert (R) 52.5 / Hodge (D)  47.5
AZ-02: Crane (R)  54 / O’Halleran (D) 46 FLIP
AZ-06: Ciscomani (R)  51 / Engel (D) 49 FLIP

Gov: Lake (R) 50.3 / Hobbs (D) 49.7

Secretary of State: Fontes (D) 50.8 / Finchem (R) 49.2

Attorney General: Hamadeh (R) 52.5 / Mayes (D) 47.5

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Horne (R) 52 / Hoffman (D) 48

Treasurer: Yee (R) 56 / Quezada (D)  44

AZ House: 33 R / 27 D
AZ Senate: 17 R / 13 D

Proposition “Yes” wins: 128, 129, 130, 209, 211, 309
Proposition “No” wins: 131, 132, 308, 310

My prop results are as illogical as Kelly/Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Horne…

My predictions are basically going to pan out. Except for 128 landslide No …

[President Johnson]

Lake calling out the guy who won six Arizona races in a row fair and square is... something.

[2016]

Katie Hobbs is DONE FOR if you believe Data Orbital
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590401917372764160

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think you'd rather be Lake here, but it's certainly not over.

[wbrocks67]

Katie Hobbs is DONE FOR if you believe Data Orbital
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590401917372764160

good thing we don't

[S019]

Does anyone know how the remaining votes will break?

[Sir Mohamed]

Does anyone know how the remaining votes will break?

I feel like nobody can seriously answer that question.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly has this there are more Kelly/Lake voters than Hobbs/Masters voters

[Ogre Mage]

Lake worries me as her candidate skills are formidable.  She certainly is a considerably better candidate than Blake Master race, who is a Peter Thiel propped up sham. 

Who would Hobbs/Master race voters be?  Frankly, both have weak candidate skills.

[Ferguson97]

Who would Hobbs/Master race voters be?  Frankly, both have weak candidate skills.

Single-issue anti-charisma voters.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does anyone know how the remaining votes will break?

Hold on let me get my magic eight ball

[2016]

Tom Horne pulled ahead in Superintendent Race against Kathy Hoffmann

While Lake is likely on track to lose it is pivotal, vitally important that Hamadeh wins in the Attorney Generals Race bcuz if we win that Race we then can put a check on Hobbs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Katie Hobbs is DONE FOR if you believe Data Orbital
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590401917372764160

Narrator: never believe Data Orbital.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1592333778042486784

[Ferguson97]

Hobbs refusing to debate has to be one of the biggest campaign own-goals this cycle.

Lake hasn't been "begging" for a debate. She's been using Hobbs' refusal to debate as an attack against her, and if the polls are any indication, it has been an effective one.

Debates don't change anything unless someone makes a big gaffe. But refusing to debate does. It looks cowardly and weak even to the vast majority who don't watch debates.

The debate itself changes nothing; but you still have to agree to do it lest you look like you're a chicken.

Your belief is that Hobbs will still win because of how extreme Lake is? That the campaign which she's run matters little?

[kyc0705]

The victory of the Hobbs campaign really gives hope to serial underachievers like me.

[Suburbia]

You haven't seen the end of Kari Lake, I am warning you right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You haven't seen the end of Kari Lake, I am warning you right now.

Maybe she'll go on Fox News or something. Who cares?

[The Dowager Mod]

Liz throwing bombs. lol
https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1592340964982808576

[Alben Barkley]

Liz throwing bombs. lol
https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1592340964982808576

So stupid on Lake's part because AZ is exactly the kind of state where an old school Republican like Liz Cheney might actually carry weight.

[Devout Centrist]

Liz throwing bombs. lol
https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1592340964982808576

[Suburbia]

You haven't seen the end of Kari Lake, I am warning you right now.

Maybe she'll go on Fox News or something. Who cares?

You'll be singing a different tune when if she is Senator in 2025, Governor in 2027 or President in 2033

[Ogre Mage]

I thought Lake was going to win for the large majority of this race.  I am glad I was wrong.  The reason I thought Lake would win was because she has superior campaigning skills to Hobbs.  We must be very grateful that Arizona voters saw through Lake's polished style to the election denier that she is.  Hobbs had already served as SoS, so perhaps people knew she was competent.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

You haven't seen the end of Kari Lake, I am warning you right now.

Maybe she'll go on Fox News or something. Who cares?

You'll be singing a different tune when if she is Senator in 2025, Governor in 2027 or President in 2033

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Seeing Kari Lake go down brings me right back to the elation and joy of election night and the day after. MAGA is done for.