Arizona megathread

[xavier110]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

IIRC, R+4 electorate is worse than 2018/2020 for the GOP. Lol. In that model, the Ds sweep most races, hold AZ-06, maybe Schweikert falls…

It will be higher than that.

[2016]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

IIRC, R+4 electorate is worse than 2018/2020 for the GOP. Lol. In that model, the Ds sweep most races, hold AZ-06, maybe Schweikert falls…

It will be higher than that.

You are probably right. 2018 & 2020 were sort of Democratic Years so yeah AZ Electorate could look more like 2014.

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

IIRC, R+4 electorate is worse than 2018/2020 for the GOP. Lol. In that model, the Ds sweep most races, hold AZ-06, maybe Schweikert falls…

It will be higher than that.

You are probably right. 2018 & 2020 were sort of Democratic Years so yeah AZ Electorate could look more like 2014.

I think it's pretty much impossible for AZ to return to a 2014 type electorate - the states status as a key swing state prevents that low of turnout, especially amongst Hispanics. And either way, Dems have been chipping away at R's registration advantage since then. In 2014 for instance, heavily Dem AZ-07 only cast 70k votes total. I would be suprised if it's successor (AZ-03) didn't case at least double this cycle.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

For all the criticisim Hobbs has got, she's kept it a close race until the very end and given the Fetterman debacle I do think her choice to skip the debate was the right one.

[wbrocks67]

Once again, Lake is actually running a horrific race. She is appealing to no one but strong Republicans/Trump voters.

If she loses, her undoing will likely be among Independent voters (which polls generally show her and Masters losing)

https://twitter.com/tcani/status/1588801720918085636

[South Dakota Democrat]

For all the criticisim Hobbs has got, she's kept it a close race until the very end and given the Fetterman debacle I do think her choice to skip the debate was the right one.

This is 100% wrong. Hobbs did not have a stroke, and it would have helped her for so many more people to witness how crazy Kari Lake is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

For all the criticisim Hobbs has got, she's kept it a close race until the very end and given the Fetterman debacle I do think her choice to skip the debate was the right one.

This is 100% wrong. Hobbs did not have a stroke, and it would have helped her for so many more people to witness how crazy Kari Lake is.

Lake is a charismatic and telegenic TV host. She would have absoutley destroyed Hobbs in the debate through superior media training alone.

[wbrocks67]

For all the criticisim Hobbs has got, she's kept it a close race until the very end and given the Fetterman debacle I do think her choice to skip the debate was the right one.

This is 100% wrong. Hobbs did not have a stroke, and it would have helped her for so many more people to witness how crazy Kari Lake is.

Lake has done numerous TV hits and has had numerous press conferences and appearances covered by the media. If people do not know how crazy she is by now, they simply don't care. This talking point makes no sense.

[South Dakota Democrat]

For all the criticisim Hobbs has got, she's kept it a close race until the very end and given the Fetterman debacle I do think her choice to skip the debate was the right one.

This is 100% wrong. Hobbs did not have a stroke, and it would have helped her for so many more people to witness how crazy Kari Lake is.

Lake has done numerous TV hits and has had numerous press conferences and appearances covered by the media. If people do not know how crazy she is by now, they simply don't care. This talking point makes no sense.

It would be an hour long debate, though, with more opportunity for her to say crazy things.  I wouldn't say it makes no sense.

[AnOdyssey]

The fact that Kari Lake is probably going to win is ...Really sad. I hope I am wrong and that not only Hobbs pulls through, but so does Kelly.

[LostInOhio]

Katie Hobbs is a horrific candidate to put up against someone like Kari Lake. She has been asleep at the wheel this entire campaign and honestly kind of deserves to lose. Lake, despite being a complete lunatic, is one of the most naturally talented politicians I’ve seen in a while. She has a ton of media training and is very skilled at controlling the narrative in TV interviews and getting voters excited. Democrats really need to do better at recruiting candidates to run for office even if that means choosing people who are more telegenic than they are experienced.

I realize not everyone can be Barack Obama but sheesh.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Katie Hobbs is a horrific candidate to put up against someone like Kari Lake. She has been asleep at the wheel this entire campaign and honestly kind of deserves to lose. Lake, despite being a complete lunatic, is one of the most naturally talented politicians I’ve seen in a while. She has a ton of media training and is very skilled at controlling the narrative in TV interviews and getting voters excited. Democrats really need to do better at recruiting candidates to run for office even if that means choosing people who are more telegenic than they are experienced.

I realize not everyone can be Barack Obama but sheesh.

Hobbs is a horrible candidate because she wasn't able to win against "one of the most naturally talented politicans"? In a republican national environment and in a mostly republican downballot state ?

Hobbs has done an admirable job keeping the race close. And even if she losses narrowly she deserves credit for having run a strong campagin keeping her in the running.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1589671642846072832

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1589989438213754880

I'd hate to be a poll worker. This guy looks like the line of voters will draw and quarter him.

[xavier110]

I told myself to write my predictions down and, I swear, went down a rabbit hole. It’s hard to make them “consistent” (e.g., how does Fontes win without Hobbs). But I’m going with my gut here!

My expectation: the initial drop will be favorable to Dems. They need double digit leads to have any shot. If Kelly is not +10 out of Maricopa initially, he’s probably screwed.

My other expectation is that Kelly and Hobbs will be more tightly connected than you’d expect from most polls. HOWEVER, I do not know what that means downballot. The Sinema/Kelly/Biden voters have shown enormous willingness to vote Ds for a couple races at the top and then bleed red. That is the true mystery of this year.

—————

Senate: Kelly (D) 50 / Masters (R) 48.5 / Victor (L) 1.5

AZ-01: Schweikert (R) 52.5 / Hodge (D)  47.5
AZ-02: Crane (R)  54 / O’Halleran (D) 46 FLIP
AZ-06: Ciscomani (R)  51 / Engel (D) 49 FLIP

Gov: Lake (R) 50.3 / Hobbs (D) 49.7

Secretary of State: Fontes (D) 50.8 / Finchem (R) 49.2

Attorney General: Hamadeh (R) 52.5 / Mayes (D) 47.5

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Horne (R) 52 / Hoffman (D) 48

Treasurer: Yee (R) 56 / Quezada (D)  44

AZ House: 33 R / 27 D
AZ Senate: 17 R / 13 D

Proposition “Yes” wins: 128, 129, 130, 209, 211, 309
Proposition “No” wins: 131, 132, 308, 310

My prop results are as illogical as Kelly/Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Horne…

[GeorgiaModerate]

(tweet)
I'd hate to be a poll worker. This guy looks like the line of voters will draw and quarter him.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1589995424701886466

[US Politics Fanatic]

I've changed my prediction : Katie Hobbs is going to win and become the new govenor of Arizona.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1590010785283313665?s=20

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I've changed my prediction : Katie Hobbs is going to win and become the new govenor of Arizona.

Why's that, Gecko? What changed?

[Ferguson97]

Republicans are already crying about fraud so I assume this means turnout for Rs is bad?

[HillGoose]

i sure hope Lake loses

she is a damn commie

[Devout Centrist]

How we feelin folks...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

How we feelin folks...

I’m feelin great

[MillennialModerate]

How we feelin folks...

In this race? Not good

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How we feelin folks...

In this race? Not good

Wow, that means a lot coming from you.