Arizona megathread

[Person Man]

So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Isn't that for taxes only though? If so, it will probably pass and there's not much we can do about it I don't think.

[xavier110]

So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Prop 309 affects VBM! It will make us write our DL or SS # on our ballot sleeves, which will only add processing time to counting mail ballots. It’s very convenient that the same people who say counting takes too long are adding hurdles that will elongate the process. Easy no from me.

I think all the initiative-related ones pass unfortunately, and so does 309. The one bright spot will be dark money passing. Who knows about the property tax or Lt Gov, but I’m voting no for both.

308 seems like a no brainer yes to me. Keep students in state, get them reinvesting in AZ.

310 is the difficult one, the only one I’m undecided about. Why am I paying a sales tax to fund rural fire districts?? At the same time, we live in a failed state when we can’t operate basic public safety and emergency services. That one probably fails anyway, since no one wants a new tax in this environment.

[wbrocks67]

So Hobbs is now doing some town hall with PBS next week and now Lake is having an absolute melt down over it

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1580342007024611329

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1580257293093912577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1580257293093912577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

I saw one of these videos the other day, and now this one. Mind you, the reputation of Project Veritas, especially on this forum. But aside from that, Hobbs doesn't come across well in this at all. I'll admit that I laughed when she accidentally knocked her drink across the table.

[Skill and Chance]

So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Prop 309 affects VBM! It will make us write our DL or SS # on our ballot sleeves, which will only add processing time to counting mail ballots. It’s very convenient that the same people who say counting takes too long are adding hurdles that will elongate the process. Easy no from me.

I think all the initiative-related ones pass unfortunately, and so does 309. The one bright spot will be dark money passing. Who knows about the property tax or Lt Gov, but I’m voting no for both.

308 seems like a no brainer yes to me. Keep students in state, get them reinvesting in AZ.

310 is the difficult one, the only one I’m undecided about. Why am I paying a sales tax to fund rural fire districts?? At the same time, we live in a failed state when we can’t operate basic public safety and emergency services. That one probably fails anyway, since no one wants a new tax in this environment.

You think the 60% threshold for taxes will pass in AZ?  A similar 60% threshold initiative got absolutely destroyed in SD this spring, and that was with the primary electorate.

[DaleCooper]

Refusing to debate is pathetic.

[xavier110]

So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Prop 309 affects VBM! It will make us write our DL or SS # on our ballot sleeves, which will only add processing time to counting mail ballots. It’s very convenient that the same people who say counting takes too long are adding hurdles that will elongate the process. Easy no from me.

I think all the initiative-related ones pass unfortunately, and so does 309. The one bright spot will be dark money passing. Who knows about the property tax or Lt Gov, but I’m voting no for both.

308 seems like a no brainer yes to me. Keep students in state, get them reinvesting in AZ.

310 is the difficult one, the only one I’m undecided about. Why am I paying a sales tax to fund rural fire districts?? At the same time, we live in a failed state when we can’t operate basic public safety and emergency services. That one probably fails anyway, since no one wants a new tax in this environment.

You think the 60% threshold for taxes will pass in AZ?  A similar 60% threshold initiative got absolutely destroyed in SD this spring, and that was with the primary electorate.

I do. It reminds me of Prop 126 from 2018, which passed with almost 65 percent of the vote.

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's a bit funny how there was an uproar when Sinema was followed into a bathroom (rightfully so) but this sh*t is okay?

Not to mention, Lake having to be reduced to using *Project Veritas* doesn't really speak highly of her campaign/herself or that she thinks she's winning.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

[wbrocks67]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

[wbrocks67]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

I don't necessarily buy the Lake monopolizing the media - because every one of her TV hits or press conferences - like the one she did yesterday - come off unhinged. I would say that the article is right that she's clearly not going after any swing voters at all. Hobbs also appears to be going across the state and doing her own campaigning.

I think this all comes down to demeanor. People assume because Lake is a more brash personality that she's everywhere, while Hobbs, because she's quieter and unassuming, gets the narrative that she's not doing anything because she's not raising as much hell as Lake is. Lake may get more headlines, but I wouldn't assume that that is doing her a lot of favors, either. You could argue just like Trump - he was in the news all the time, but when he's in the news, it's not a great day for him or Team R.

Not to mention, the whole debate thing remains a very beltway-type issue imo. Look at recent debates, with Johnson, Masters, Vance, etc. Ryan, Barnes, and Kelly are all good debaters - and their opponents to varying degrees. But most people still ended up calling all of them a draw or people just stuck to their sides. If Ryan didn't "win" that debate against Vance, then Hobbs won't "win" it against Lake. I'm all for debates and believe you should do at least one, but at the end of the day, it's not like it's going to do much.

[xavier110]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

Oh wow, this article is same old, same old, but some nuggets are wild.

I was not expecting one of the few statewide elected Ds (Sandra Kennedy), who’s on the same ballot as freaking Hobbs, to be on the record shading her like this. I can see why they led with her quotes.

Bowers will vote Fontes but not Hobbs? This is a guy who understands the threat and still won’t vote to stop Lake…….?

I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

I don't necessarily buy the Lake monopolizing the media - because every one of her TV hits or press conferences - like the one she did yesterday - come off unhinged. I would say that the article is right that she's clearly not going after any swing voters at all. Hobbs also appears to be going across the state and doing her own campaigning.

I think this all comes down to demeanor. People assume because Lake is a more brash personality that she's everywhere, while Hobbs, because she's quieter and unassuming, gets the narrative that she's not doing anything because she's not raising as much hell as Lake is. Lake may get more headlines, but I wouldn't assume that that is doing her a lot of favors, either. You could argue just like Trump - he was in the news all the time, but when he's in the news, it's not a great day for him or Team R.

Not to mention, the whole debate thing remains a very beltway-type issue imo. Look at recent debates, with Johnson, Masters, Vance, etc. Ryan, Barnes, and Kelly are all good debaters - and their opponents to varying degrees. But most people still ended up calling all of them a draw or people just stuck to their sides. If Ryan didn't "win" that debate against Vance, then Hobbs won't "win" it against Lake. I'm all for debates and believe you should do at least one, but at the end of the day, it's not like it's going to do much.

Of course, one can plausibly say that a debate won't have a significant impact on the election results. Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, I can easily see the validity of this argument. But I think the larger issue is that Hobbs' unwillingness to debate Lake at all is the more significant problem here. Just look at that Prensa Arizona townhall that she was a no-show to. And look at that Univision forum where Lake was kicked out for sitting in the audience when Hobbs was on the stage.

By refusing to directly confront Lake head on and defend her own beliefs, Hobbs is giving Lake more credibility than she otherwise would have. And it has given Lake a good attack strategy to utilize against Hobbs. She can claim that she's putting in the work and reaching out to voters, and that Hobbs is hiding from them. What would be said if the situation was reversed, and Lake was the one refusing to debate Hobbs? There would surely be condemnation, and it would be justified.

[Devout Centrist]

I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

Peak banter result would be Lake as Gov, but with Fontes as the SOS…feels like we’re headed here.

[xavier110]

I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

Peak banter result would be Lake as Gov, but with Fontes as the SOS…feels like we’re headed here.

I think I prefer that outcome to Hobbs/Finchem, though Hobbs would put a check on the cuckoo legislature.

[wbrocks67]

I was told Lake was running the superior campaign though?

Not sure why people on here are obsessed with Lake allegedly running some grand campaign when every stop along the way has been a total hot mess.

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1580655469713977345

[Devout Centrist]

I was told Lake was running the superior campaign though?

Not sure why people on here are obsessed with Lake allegedly running some grand campaign when every stop along the way has been a total hot mess.

I wouldn't say she's running a good campaign, it's more like Hobbs has a steeper hill to climb than she does. Though stuff like this may come back to hurt Lake.

[jamestroll]

I was told Lake was running the superior campaign though?

Not sure why people on here are obsessed with Lake allegedly running some grand campaign when every stop along the way has been a total hot mess.

I wouldn't say she's running a good campaign, it's more like Hobbs has a steeper hill to climb than she does. Though stuff like this may come back to hurt Lake.

Hobbs should take power irrespective of actual results!!!! It is not like Lake would certify a Biden victory in Arizona in 2024 even if Biden won the state.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1581064083280826370

Think we may have pushed her too hard. Get ready for Dark Katie, folks.

[Senator Incitatus]

[tweet "Live footage of Kari Lake's meltdown"]

What is this tweet? Is she just trying to call attention to the video of herself spilling soda and hiding in the bathroom? Did her campaign vandalize the sign? Did it melt? I have so many questions for this woman.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1581064918643580929

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think if Hobbs loses this, it will 100% be due to the Hispanic vote either not going for her by the margin she needs or just not showing up. I've seen little on her part to appeal to this really critical voting block in the state, and it's not like Kelly is Hispanic either.

Most persuadable people know Lake is crazy and Hobbs in all honesty probably has as many of those voters in places like Scottsdale locked down as she can.

Lake's problem is that her campaign just seems generally exclusive towards anyone who's not hard MAGA and I think she really hopes her status as a news anchor gives her wider appeal she wouldn't otherwise have.

Honestly, neither candidate has done a good job so far at addressing the areas where they seem to lack and time is running out.

[MillennialModerate]

From what I’ve seen it’s been borderline electoral malpractice by Hobbs. Really a horrific effort.

She needs to step it up