Arizona megathread

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

As I said, I think Kelly has the advantage, and I think he will win, but it's not going to be a runaway landslide. Kelly won't win by more than a few percentage points. It is Arizona, and the state is highly polarized.

I agree with this take. I just can't really envision Masters having a chance, he's too extreme IMO.

I've said before that Kelly has a "personality" advantage, given that he's a former astronaut and Gabby Giffords' husband. This is also why Lake has been doing well, and why there could be a split outcome. She's a former local news anchor who knows how to work the media and apparently has good will from her career.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

Candidate quality matters, which is why Kelly is very likely to win. Biden's approval rating doesn't mean anything. If it did, then the GOP is going to have a clean sweep and win some surprise races. Yeah, not happening.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

Don't pay much attention to 2016 and others who are deluded enough to think the debate changed anything.

If you think Kelly will overperform Bidens Job Number by 10 Points you are living in Fantasyland. Kelly won by less than 100K Votes in 2020 against washed-up Martha McSally. If Kelly wins it will be 51-49, 50-48 or something like that.

I would put McSally in the same Position Charlie Crist is in FL this year.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

Don't pay much attention to 2016 and others who are deluded enough to think the debate changed anything.

If you think Kelly will overperform Bidens Job Number by 10 Points you are living in Fantasyland. Kelly won by less than 100K Votes in 2020 against washed-up Martha McSally. If Kelly wins it will be 51-49, 50-48 or something like that.

I would put McSally in the same Position Charlie Crist is in FL this year.

I live in reality, where candidate quality matters, and can overcome a president's approval ratings. A good candidate can overcome this when the opposite party has nominated a bad candidate. 51-49 or 50-48 could happen if Masters manages to overperform.

Bidens Approval will matter as we get closer to E-Day. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always and have been for the last 3 Decades a Referendum on the Incumbent President and 2022 ain't going to change that.

His approval ratings have been better recently, and as for the bolded, explain 2002 and 2018 Senate.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

Candidate quality matters, which is why Kelly is very likely to win. Biden's approval rating doesn't mean anything. If it did, then the GOP is going to have a clean sweep and win some surprise races. Yeah, not happening.

Bidens Approval will matter as we get closer to E-Day. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always and have been for the last 3 Decades a Referendum on the Incumbent President and 2022 ain't going to change that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"A candidate can't outperform approvals by 10%' is very much a braindead take. Brandon is at like -10 in Georgia and yet Warnock is expected to win.

Also, debate viewership was 49,000 both live and streamed since. It was on PBS, as well. This won't have any effect. Jesus Horatio Christ.

[Senator Incitatus]

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

The wish-casting smuggled into threads under the guise of "candidate quality" is getting absurd.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

The wish-casting smuggled into threads under the guise of "candidate quality" is getting absurd.

Former Astronaut married to a beloved figure in the state and served 25 years in the military in a state full of veterans who has net positive job approvals and is perceived by most to be moderate vs. Crypto-bro creep with Roy Moore tier likability scores and literal internet edgelord who has admitted a dislike for the military.

Obviously the latter would appeal more to swing voters.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans made it seem like the country was hell on earth specifically in the summer of 2020; a lot of rewriting history here

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1579232455210733570

[xavier110]

The latest pull from the oppo file is that where Katie Hobbs went to high school held a slave day and that Hobbs may have helped organize it.

This one sounds like a school sanctioned event that went on for decades, beyond just Hobbs, where freshmen were “slaves” matched to their senior “masters.” Still, sigh.

Where is the Kari dirty laundry? I’m sure her finances are interesting…

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

Yeah he brought it up in the debate.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

Yeah he brought it up in the debate.

Yes but is he doing any concerted media effort like Lake?

[Senator Incitatus]

The latest pull from the oppo file is that where Katie Hobbs went to high school held a slave day and that Hobbs may have helped organize it.

This one sounds like a school sanctioned event that went on for decades, beyond just Hobbs, where freshmen were “slaves” matched to their senior “masters.” Still, sigh.

Where is the Kari dirty laundry? I’m sure her finances are interesting…

This seems like a complete non-story to me, since it was so long ago and Hobbs's connection is limited, but I clicked on the article just to get a sense of what was happening here and...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Except that's clearly not where Hobbs stands and that's not what she said, either.

Republicans trying to do this whole "abortion after birth" thing is just stupid, and it's clearly b/c they're flailing on abortion themselves. In Lake's own interview, she wouldn't even answer the question straight - because she knows her position is toxic in a GE.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Lake and especially Masters have fallen flat on their faces every time they attempted to do this.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

I perfectly understand what she is saying, but why is it that abortion is the one particular issue where Democrats believe that the government should take a completely hands off approach? I don't understand that. But as to whether or not "reasonable people" view this as persuasive, we'll have to see what happens next month. I'll just say that Democrats could have nominated someone more disciplined and formidable than Hobbs, who is very much in jeopardy of losing this particular election.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

I perfectly understand what she is saying, but why is it that abortion is the one particular issue where Democrats believe that the government should take a completely hands off approach? I don't understand that. But as to whether or not "reasonable people" view this as persuasive, we'll have to see what happens next month. I'll just say that Democrats could have nominated someone more disciplined and formidable than Hobbs, who is very much in jeopardy of losing this particular election.

Well it's Arizona in a Biden midterm, so I don't really think anyone else would've been doing much better

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

I perfectly understand what she is saying, but why is it that abortion is the one particular issue where Democrats believe that the government should take a completely hands off approach? I don't understand that. But as to whether or not "reasonable people" view this as persuasive, we'll have to see what happens next month. I'll just say that Democrats could have nominated someone more disciplined and formidable than Hobbs, who is very much in jeopardy of losing this particular election.

Well it's Arizona in a Biden midterm, so I don't really think anyone else would've been doing much better

I would disagree with that. But at any rate, abortion has always been a policy where I've had considerable disagreement with the Democratic platform, and one where I think the Democrats could adopt a more moderate, pragmatic approach than the one which they currently take.