Arizona megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1577863357918375936

[wbrocks67]

A hot mess. Lake clearly spiralling bc she doesn't know what answer to give on abortion.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1578049130189885441

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1578065209515823105

[Devout Centrist]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

[Calthrina950]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

You say that this townhall was a "publicity stunt" organized by the Lake campaign. What is your source for this? I've heard that the organization which organized this event was Prensa Arizona, which is a Spanish language publication. Apparently, they extended invitations to both Hobbs and Lake to attend. Lake showed up, but Hobbs did not, and apparently had her campaign manager issue a statement that she couldn't oblige due to her schedule. Is this true? Or was this a stunt?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Polling recently seems to defy the panic at every little event in being discussed in this thread. But I suppose if this race is the ultimate nail-biter of the year decided by a fraction of a percent in Lake's favor, maybe something as small as Hobbs avoiding public events with Lake could be the culprit.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

You say that this townhall was a "publicity stunt" organized by the Lake campaign. What is your source for this? I've heard that the organization which organized this event was Prensa Arizona, which is a Spanish language publication. Apparently, they extended invitations to both Hobbs and Lake to attend. Lake showed up, but Hobbs did not, and apparently had her campaign manager issue a statement that she couldn't oblige due to her schedule. Is this true? Or was this a stunt?

Because people in my party cannot accept anything other than the Rosiest possible picture of whats happening for them. It's infuriating

[Calthrina950]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

You say that this townhall was a "publicity stunt" organized by the Lake campaign. What is your source for this? I've heard that the organization which organized this event was Prensa Arizona, which is a Spanish language publication. Apparently, they extended invitations to both Hobbs and Lake to attend. Lake showed up, but Hobbs did not, and apparently had her campaign manager issue a statement that she couldn't oblige due to her schedule. Is this true? Or was this a stunt?

Because people in my party cannot accept anything other than the Rosiest possible picture of whats happening for them. It's infuriating

I'm surprised no one else responded to this, perhaps because that was what actually occurred. I've said before that I think Hispanics will swing to Lake, even if she loses. If Hobbs wins, she will win thanks to the same college-educated, suburban voters ("McCain Republicans") who helped deliver the state to Biden in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

You say that this townhall was a "publicity stunt" organized by the Lake campaign. What is your source for this? I've heard that the organization which organized this event was Prensa Arizona, which is a Spanish language publication. Apparently, they extended invitations to both Hobbs and Lake to attend. Lake showed up, but Hobbs did not, and apparently had her campaign manager issue a statement that she couldn't oblige due to her schedule. Is this true? Or was this a stunt?

Because people in my party cannot accept anything other than the Rosiest possible picture of whats happening for them. It's infuriating

I'm surprised no one else responded to this, perhaps because that was what actually occurred. I've said before that I think Hispanics will swing to Lake, even if she loses. If Hobbs wins, she will win thanks to the same college-educated, suburban voters ("McCain Republicans") who helped deliver the state to Biden in 2020.

What's interesting is that in 2020, the Hispanic swings against Biden seemed to be very mild compared to a lot of other states and I'm not exactly sure why that is. One theory is that the increase in Hispanic turnout in a place like Pheonix outpaced the rightwards swings of Hispanics making the swings less noticeable even if they were technically there.

Unsurprisingly, the worst swings for Biden were amongst border Hispanics but this is a relatively small group in AZ.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1578564844965404673

Isn't that fraud?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1578801145165725696

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

The Border and Crime Issue will drag down Kelly I think. Same will happen with CCM in Nevada. O'Rourke will lose I think because of it. Yvette Herrell will stun Democrats and get reelected in NM and the Grisham - Rochetti Race will be tighter as well because of the Border Crisis.

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

The Border and Crime Issue will drag down Kelly I think. Same will happen with CCM in Nevada. O'Rourke will lose I think because of it. Yvette Herrell will stun Democrats and get reelected in NM and the Grisham - Rochetti Race will be tighter as well because of the Border Crisis.

I sure hope Ronchetti wins, because Grisham is terrible. She was a hypocrite with regards to the pandemic and overreached in her response to that, and she's had sexual assault allegations (which she settled monetarily). O'Rourke was going to lose regardless, but as I've said, I think he'll lose by more than he did in 2018 and do worse in the Rio Grande Valley. And I do think Laxalt is going to win in Nevada at this point, although it will be close.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

The Border and Crime Issue will drag down Kelly I think. Same will happen with CCM in Nevada. O'Rourke will lose I think because of it. Yvette Herrell will stun Democrats and get reelected in NM and the Grisham - Rochetti Race will be tighter as well because of the Border Crisis.

I sure hope Ronchetti wins, because Grisham is terrible. She was a hypocrite with regards to the pandemic and overreached in her response to that, and she's had sexual assault allegations (which she settled monetarily). O'Rourke was going to lose regardless, but as I've said, I think he'll lose by more than he did in 2018 and do worse in the Rio Grande Valley. And I do think Laxalt is going to win in Nevada at this point, although it will be close.

The best way to do checks on this Administration if you don't control Congress as an opposing party is to elected Republican Governors. As you mentioned COVID we saw how crucial that was. Thank God AZ had Doug Ducey as Governor. The Biden Administration really overreached with all their Mask & Vaccine Mandates and still do. I was glad the SCOTUS struck down the OSHA Vaccine Mandate. That was the right Decision.

[Calthrina950]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

As I said, I think Kelly has the advantage, and I think he will win, but it's not going to be a runaway landslide. Kelly won't win by more than a few percentage points. It is Arizona, and the state is highly polarized.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

Don't pay much attention to 2016 and others who are deluded enough to think the debate changed anything.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

As I said, I think Kelly has the advantage, and I think he will win, but it's not going to be a runaway landslide. Kelly won't win by more than a few percentage points. It is Arizona, and the state is highly polarized.

I agree with this take. I just can't really envision Masters having a chance, he's too extreme IMO.