Arizona megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who else thinks Liz Cheney's endorsement was really helpful? I do

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1664674226450857994

[President Johnson]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Fiscal responsibility at its finest!

[wbrocks67]

Who else thinks Liz Cheney's endorsement was really helpful? I do

Agreed. A place like AZ with many "McCain Republicans" is honestly the best place for her endorsement to be worthwhile, especially against a kook like Lake

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has 40/57 Approvals no way Rs gonna win AZ

[Spectator]

Katie Hobbs is getting harassed at her own gym by a “reporter”. sh**t like this makes me hope she wins again. The GOP doesn’t seem to have learned a lesson on why we lost 2022 in the first place.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMajorityReport/comments/14ufeg0/arizona_governor_katie_hobbs_harassed_at_her_gym/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

[wbrocks67]

Katie Hobbs is getting harassed at her own gym by a “reporter”. sh**t like this makes me hope she wins again. The GOP doesn’t seem to have learned a lesson on why we lost 2022 in the first place.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMajorityReport/comments/14ufeg0/arizona_governor_katie_hobbs_harassed_at_her_gym/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

Hobbs' response was incredible:

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1677437702801616897

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/TucsonStar/status/1686553161404682240

When even FINCHEM gives up, it just makes K**i L**e look even more pathetic.

[robocop]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

Lake was a terrible enough candidate that Hobbs could beat her without campaigning. Robson would've probably won.

The AZ SOS needs to reform the counting process though - the vote margin changing by that much for several days after the election doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the system.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

Lake was a terrible enough candidate that Hobbs could beat her without campaigning. Robson would've probably won.

The AZ SOS needs to reform the counting process though - the vote margin changing by that much for several days after the election doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the system.

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was. 

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

Lake was a terrible enough candidate that Hobbs could beat her without campaigning. Robson would've probably won.

The AZ SOS needs to reform the counting process though - the vote margin changing by that much for several days after the election doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the system.

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was.  

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

Yeah, Lake seems strong because she didn't Mastriano herself, but Arizona had a much more favorable Republican turnout than Pennsylvania, and she managed to outrun Blake which is not a good yardstick of a generic candidate. The only reason Lake outran Masters is because Masters was even worse (he had the same vibes as what DeSantis right now - a nazi incel, a socially awkward creep, focusing excessively on culture wars instead of the economy, etc.) The 2022 results should not be a baseline suggesting that Arizona is now a blue state; it's still purple and I fear the left might soon make the same mistake (I've seen rhetoric like "Arizona is blue enough to elect a progressive; we don't need a moderate". This rhetoric might work against a retread Lake but they would lose as soon as the GOP put up someone like Yee).

Regarding the counting process, one reform I would make is to make the deadline for mailing in ballots the weekend before the election, and any absentees past that need to be dropped off at a vote center. Since a majority of absentees are ie mailed from Maricopa to Maricopa, most should be counted within 12 hours of polls closing. There will be small amount of provisionals and postmarked absentees arriving after that, but that would only be a trickle, and not cause a sudden large shift. I would aim to get at least 95% of the ballots in by the day after the election (and ideally, 99%), not 80% like before.

[Canis]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

This is historical revisionism. Hobbs did campaign across the state she just refused to debate Kari Lake because Lake would have made a spectacle out of it. Elections are not won with "promo videos". Their won by voter outreach, media coverage etc. Lake lost because she scared the crap out of AZ voters by constantly talking about the 2020 election with no vision of what her four years as governor would be. Constantly bashing AZ's vote by mail system which even prior to covid AZ was one of the states with the highest vote vote by mail rate due to the number of retirees. As well as constantly bashing the late John McCain and "McCain Republicans" which were a significant portion of the electorate. Hobbs won because she ran a far less divisive campaign and actually had a vision for what shed do as governor of Arizona.

[wbrocks67]

It's weird to me that people are still doing the "Hobbs didn't campaign" thing. Yes, she did. She campaigned, she did events, she aired ads (more than Lake did!)... people think simply because Hobbs wasn't a bombastic character that she didn't do anything. It's childish and immature analysis.

[Roll Roons]

Regarding the counting process, one reform I would make is to make the deadline for mailing in ballots the weekend before the election, and any absentees past that need to be dropped off at a vote center. Since a majority of absentees are ie mailed from Maricopa to Maricopa, most should be counted within 12 hours of polls closing. There will be small amount of provisionals and postmarked absentees arriving after that, but that would only be a trickle, and not cause a sudden large shift. I would aim to get at least 95% of the ballots in by the day after the election (and ideally, 99%), not 80% like before.

Just follow Florida's lead.
-Mail ballots have to be received by poll closing.
-In-person early votes have to be counted by the day before election day.
-Allow early and mail ballots to be processed ahead of time. Even if it's the Republican legislature that's blocking this, there's a very real chance that Democrats get a trifecta in 2024 and can immediately implement this for 2026 and beyond.

[MargieCat]

Regarding the counting process, one reform I would make is to make the deadline for mailing in ballots the weekend before the election, and any absentees past that need to be dropped off at a vote center. Since a majority of absentees are ie mailed from Maricopa to Maricopa, most should be counted within 12 hours of polls closing. There will be small amount of provisionals and postmarked absentees arriving after that, but that would only be a trickle, and not cause a sudden large shift. I would aim to get at least 95% of the ballots in by the day after the election (and ideally, 99%), not 80% like before.

Just follow Florida's lead.
-Mail ballots have to be received by poll closing.
-In-person early votes have to be counted by the day before election day.
-Allow early and mail ballots to be processed ahead of time. Even if it's the Republican legislature that's blocking this, there's a very real chance that Democrats get a trifecta in 2024 and can immediately implement this for 2026 and beyond.

Arizona is pretty quick at counting the mail-in ballots (received before election day) and in-person votes and usually that's all dumped on election night. It typically comes down to Maricopa County.

The backlog comes due to people handing in their mail ballots on election day or using dropboxes at the last possible moment. And some of the later dumps have USPS mail delivered right on election day, which need to go through the canvas process.

Arizona is a little different from other states in that they allow you to hand in your mail ballots at the polls on e-day. This allows voters to go to the polling place and get their sticker, while bypassing the lines. But unlike the e-day votes which are tabulated immediately, they still go through the canvas process at central count. I refer to this process as "hybrid voting," a term you will not hear anywhere else because I coined it.

Not to sound like a vote suppressor, but they probably need to quit allowing voters to hand in their ballots to polling places on election day. They could give directions to a ballot drop box (which a lot of voters might not trust) or spoil their mail ballot and make them get in the line just like everyone else. The act of handing in a mail ballot on election day really should be discouraged.

In addition, due to First-in-first-out (FIFO) of tabulation of these ballots, the precincts near central count tend to be very blue (Downtown and South Phoenix) as are the ballots. The later batches tend to get redder as the distance to central count gets larger. Ballots from exurban Maricopa County tend to be pretty red.

[robocop]

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was. 

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

You could also accuse Donald Trump of similar you know

[GeorgiaModerate]

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was. 

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

You could also accuse Donald Trump of similar you know

I would say only the first two elements (huge ego and zero political experience) were true of Trump in 2016.  He did have enough political skill to bring out and motivate his base while still remaining palatable to some swing voters. That was just enough for him to squeak by Hillary -- although he would likely have lost to a candidate who had less baggage and was better liked.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1708971618821882349

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs has been so incredibly based. One of the best 2022 outcomes on so many levels.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LukeTVNews/status/1711799341558727114?t=4ZcuvLrfAbfYupysqOSv...

The craziest people just don't understand the electorate doesn't want them. Losing again and again has its own value after all.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/LukeTVNews/status/1711799341558727114?t=4ZcuvLrfAbfYupysqOSv...

The craziest people just don't understand the electorate doesn't want them. Losing again and again has its own value after all.

Why do the worst people always live for so long?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/LukeTVNews/status/1711799341558727114?t=4ZcuvLrfAbfYupysqOSv...

The craziest people just don't understand the electorate doesn't want them. Losing again and again has its own value after all.

Why do the worst people always live for so long?

Cant die if you don’t have a soul

[Epaminondas]

Why do the worst people always live for so long?

The good die young.