Could the GOP win Loudoun County VA in 2024

[jamestroll]

rmember it is only gop due to donald trump. a neo con or a bush type goper would instantly flip it.

if sanders wa sthe nominee he would have been blown the big time out there due to socialism and wealthy something something

[MT Treasurer]

Post-Trump, Democrats will win IA but lose Loudoun County, VA. VA-GOV 2021 is Lean R, IA-SEN 2022 Lean D.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Loudoun County, famous county that is only GOP due to Trump, that's why it voted for Obama both in 2008 and in 2012.

[jamestroll]

Post-Trump, Democrats will win IA but lose Loudoun County, VA. VA-GOV 2021 is Lean R, IA-SEN 2022 Lean D.

hahaha.

VA-Gov would only "lean R" in a Lee Carter vs Kirk Cox situation and that may be a little generous to the GOP.

IA-Sen is not winnable for Dems in 2022. Rob Sands will have a hard enough time being re-elected auditor or being elected governor. But as we both know every election has different dynamics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, D's are favored to keep Gov chair and Kaine is up for reelection I'm 2024, VA is safe D

[Crumpets]

Hot take: Loudoun will swing more Democratic than it did in this election in 2024 because the Washington Metro will extend into the county for the first time and you'll get a higher proportion of commuters who use public transit and not their own cars moving to the area.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Hot take: Loudoun will swing more Democratic than it did in this election in 2024 because the Washington Metro will extend into the county for the first time and you'll get a higher proportion of commuters who use public transit and not their own cars moving to the area.

This may actually be better electoral analysis than 90% of what psephologists on Twitter spout, lol.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There are some suburbs, even some in Virginia (like Chesterfield and Stafford) that I can see the GOP flipping back in 2024.  Loudoun is absolutely not one of those.  It's 61.5% Biden and is probably one of the least likely suburbs to have significant Republican trends.

[hyouzel the predictor]

As someone who lives in Loudoun County and has lived here my entire life, this county is moving further and further left. The NOVA Blue Wall will not fall for anyone even remotely Trump-like, meaning anyone associated with him or his administration.

[Chips]

No. Could the GOP make inroads in VA and potentially maybe win it? Maybe but it takes a very specific type of Republican to do well. (Moderate, non populist) But not even that type of Republican can win Loudoun.

[AGA]

Absolutely not.

[iceman]

Probably not anymore.

[Andy Hine]

Loudoun is trending D. People on this forum continue to prove their ignorance.

[rhg2052]

Hot take: Loudoun will swing more Democratic than it did in this election in 2024 because the Washington Metro will extend into the county for the first time and you'll get a higher proportion of commuters who use public transit and not their own cars moving to the area.

This is absolutely right. The already blue suburban areas are beginning to densify around where the Metro is coming in, the suburbs are continuing to expand into the rural parts of Loudoun, and some of the rural Loudoun Valley towns are not very Trumpy areas to begin with. Loudoun is gone for the GOP.

If anything, Stafford 2020 is Loudoun 2008.

[jamestroll]

This thread is the counter to the inevitable daily Iowa threads this forum will have.

Despite the fact that the Democrats could have an actually not so bad night in 2022 if they do not spend any money in Iowa. like ZERO money. They may win a single house seat from there though.

[vileplume]

Possibly in a AOC vs. Charlie Baker match up. Otherwise no.

[It’s so Joever]

This thread is the counter to the inevitable daily Iowa threads this forum will have.

Despite the fact that the Democrats could have an actually not so bad night in 2022 if they do not spend any money in Iowa. like ZERO money. They may win a single house seat from there though.

If Cindy Axne has a roughly similar district as now, they have a shot there because of Des Moines. Otherwise, it’s time to abandon Iowa.

[jamestroll]

This thread is the counter to the inevitable daily Iowa threads this forum will have.

Despite the fact that the Democrats could have an actually not so bad night in 2022 if they do not spend any money in Iowa. like ZERO money. They may win a single house seat from there though.

If Cindy Axne has a roughly similar district as now, they have a shot there because of Des Moines. Otherwise, it’s time to abandon Iowa.

I am fairly certain they will carry one Iowa seat in 2022. But the point for the 2022 to mitigate losses or perhaps even gain is to focus on the states of least resistance. Iowa is NOT one of them while Pennsylvania is.