Iowa - first caucus state again?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

After all that fuss and utter failure at the beginning of this year, will the Democrats hold their first caucus in Iowa again?
But not only all the previous trouble speaks against it, also the demographics of that state do. Furthermore, after turning into another Arkansas, Iowa is not representative of the Democratic Party any longer.

An even more interesting question is, if the GOP will follow the Democrats in case they are going abandon their state party.
And will the Iowa Democrats switch to a primary, after they've proven that they are not capable of holding an open (!!) election?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa should not be the first democratic caucus state. If it has to stay a caucus for whatever reason that is fine, but it should be later in the calendar. Quite frankly, Iowa is too white. In an era where fewer and fewer whites will be voting Democratic each successive cycle, the Democratic Primary should start somewhere where non-whites exist in large numbers. There's several options that are small enough to allow retail politics to still work, hold a caucus if that is the best way to begin, and serve as a training ground, while also having enough not-white individuals:

Nevada
South Carolina
New Mexico
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Maryland
Colorado

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pete and his buddies who wrote the app may have ruined it.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Anywho, we may or may not, I don't know. Crossing my fingers that we do.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really? 😳

Yep.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

[Lord Halifax]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

Iowa is a swing state.

[Lord Halifax]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

Iowa is a swing state.

Keep telling yourself that.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I agree with Koopa. If only opinion of non-whites matter for Democrats, we should abandon the Democratic Party en masse (and hispanics should too).

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

Iowa is a swing state.

Keep telling yourself that.

The state has only voted Republican twice-in-a-row, preceded by two Dem victories, and a GOP victory before that. Iowa's swings are definitely slower than those of, say, Wisconsin and Florida, but it still does swing. A state voting for the Republicans in GOP-favorable years does not discount it from being swing.

And once again, what does it matter? No state will ever be on-par 1:1 with the nation in terms of demographics, whether social or political, so even if we pretend that Iowa is to the right of NE-3, who cares?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Iowa should not be the first democratic caucus state. If it has to stay a caucus for whatever reason that is fine, but it should be later in the calendar. Quite frankly, Iowa is too white. In an era where fewer and fewer whites will be voting Democratic each successive cycle, the Democratic Primary should start somewhere where non-whites exist in large numbers. There's several options that are small enough to allow retail politics to still work, hold a caucus if that is the best way to begin, and serve as a training ground, while also having enough not-white individuals:

Nevada fine
South Carolina red state, only afro-americans are D
New Mexico fine
Mississippi red state, only afro-americans are D
Alabama red state, only afro-americans are D
Louisiana red state, only afro-americans are D
Maryland only afro-americans are D
Colorado fine

Abandoning whites is a mistake, remember northern rural areas arent maxed out and suburbs could trend R back again.

[Alcibiades]

Iowa should not be the first democratic caucus state. If it has to stay a caucus for whatever reason that is fine, but it should be later in the calendar. Quite frankly, Iowa is too white. In an era where fewer and fewer whites will be voting Democratic each successive cycle, the Democratic Primary should start somewhere where non-whites exist in large numbers. There's several options that are small enough to allow retail politics to still work, hold a caucus if that is the best way to begin, and serve as a training ground, while also having enough not-white individuals:

Nevada fine
South Carolina red state, only afro-americans are D
New Mexico fine
Mississippi red state, only afro-americans are D
Alabama red state, only afro-americans are D
Louisiana red state, only afro-americans are D
Maryland only afro-americans are D
Colorado fine

Abandoning whites is a mistake, remember northern rural areas arent maxed out and suburbs could trend R back again.

I mean, Biden literally won because he swung whites.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Iowa should not be the first democratic caucus state. If it has to stay a caucus for whatever reason that is fine, but it should be later in the calendar. Quite frankly, Iowa is too white. In an era where fewer and fewer whites will be voting Democratic each successive cycle, the Democratic Primary should start somewhere where non-whites exist in large numbers. There's several options that are small enough to allow retail politics to still work, hold a caucus if that is the best way to begin, and serve as a training ground, while also having enough not-white individuals:

Nevada fine
South Carolina red state, only afro-americans are D
New Mexico fine
Mississippi red state, only afro-americans are D
Alabama red state, only afro-americans are D
Louisiana red state, only afro-americans are D
Maryland only afro-americans are D
Colorado fine

Abandoning whites is a mistake, remember northern rural areas arent maxed out and suburbs could trend R back again.

I mean, Biden literally won because he swung whites.

Yes but don't take them for granted, like he does

In an era where fewer and fewer whites will be voting Democratic each successive cycle, the Democratic Primary should start somewhere where non-whites exist in large numbers

[WD]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

[LAKISYLVANIA]

and NV and SC are early. Many southern states are on super tuesday, so it's fine as it is.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The 2020 primary mess was not explicitly our fault, plenty of states have had similar problems, especially because the app was made by the national DNC and was set to be used in Nevada and other states. Also, take note that the trouble was actually the fault of the Democrats and their app, not of the state of Iowa, as the GOP caucuses ran smoothly. Sure, we could definitely reform our caucus a little bit, but I see no reason why any other state should go before us. Either keep the status quo with minor reform, or hold one same-day national primary.

Really?

Yep.

What about the non-representative demographics?
What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

> What about the non-representative demographics?

So? Good luck finding a state that is both demographically AND politically in sync with the nation at large 100% of the time.

> What about about Iowa having turned into a deep-red state?

Uhh...what? We had a competitive Senate race, and elected a 75% Democratic House delegation in 2018. That, and these trends aren't permanent.

However, let's pretend that Iowa is among the likes of Oklahoma and Idaho like you say it is: isn't that a good thing? The Democrats need to tune into how swing voters and whatnot think in order to...I don't know...win? A first-in-the-nation in California or Massachusetts would be a massive echo chamber that only proves how demographics that were gonna vote D anyways think.

The alternative wouldn't be CA or MA, but an actual swing state like Wisconsin.

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

“Swing state”

[WD]

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

Iowa’s past voting history is irrelevant. By that logic, Colorado is a swing state because it voted for Obama twice, Bush twice, once for Clinton, and once for Dole. It isn’t, Biden won it by 13 points and it will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future.

A state that votes 5 points to the right of the nation, like Iowa did this year, isn’t a swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP nominee in 2024 carries it by double digits.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

Iowa’s past voting history is irrelevant. By that logic, Colorado is a swing state because it voted for Obama twice, Bush twice, once for Clinton, and once for Dole. It isn’t, Biden won it by 13 points and it will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future.

A state that votes 5 points to the right of the nation, like Iowa did this year, isn’t a swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP nominee in 2024 carries it by double digits.

Iowa is still winnable for D's.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Iowa’s past voting history is irrelevant. By that logic, Colorado is a swing state because it voted for Obama twice, Bush twice, once for Clinton, and once for Dole. It isn’t, Biden won it by 13 points and it will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future.

A state that votes 5 points to the right of the nation, like Iowa did this year, isn’t a swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP nominee in 2024 carries it by double digits.

Yes, because past voting history is irrelevant when the topic at hand is literally state electoral trends. Wake me up when Iowa votes the same way for over a decade, then it's not a swing state.

[Blair]

I don't think the argument should be over whether Iowa is a swing state (South Carolina clearly isn't but it gets no.3)

The argument is frankly what order of states best suits the parties ability to win 270 electoral votes & how it best stress tests those running.

Iowa was fine in 2008 because it allowled Obama a chance to show the national party & the press that he could win in a white state (ofc it helped it was a mid-western state right next to Illinois)

I think there's a pretty good argument that Iowa followled by New Hampshire does not work; because winning both states doesn't prove you can turnout the democratic voters needed to win in the General.  In fact voters in the rest of the country looked at who New Hampshire & Iowa picked in the top 2-3 & said 'I'll pass'. So the system actually corrected itself.

I'd favour replacing Iowa with Wisconsin; the democratic party there much like Neveda have a very strong state party now & could do with the focus.

[WD]

Iowa’s past voting history is irrelevant. By that logic, Colorado is a swing state because it voted for Obama twice, Bush twice, once for Clinton, and once for Dole. It isn’t, Biden won it by 13 points and it will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future.

A state that votes 5 points to the right of the nation, like Iowa did this year, isn’t a swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP nominee in 2024 carries it by double digits.

Yes, because past voting history is irrelevant when the topic at hand is literally state electoral trends. Wake me up when Iowa votes the same way for over a decade, then it's not a swing state.

Well, Democrats haven’t won Iowa on the presidential level since 2012. Given that current trends are likely to only accelerate and show no signs of stopping, I have a feeling Iowa will be voting the same way for more than just a decade.

And yes, how a state voted in the past is for the most part irrelevant. When a state changes you can’t use how it voted in the past because those past voting patterns are obsolete. Saying Iowa is a swing state because of how Obama did in 2008, is like saying back in 2004, West Virginia will flip back because Clinton won it easily in 1996. 2008/2012 is an entirely different political world than 2020. It will be a long, long time before Democrats are competitive in places that Obama won by massive margins like Howard County or Worth County again. The Iowa of the late 90s/early 2000s is gone.

Iowa just voted for the loser of this election by 8 points, it is not a swing state nor a bellwether.