Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be diverging

[LiberalDem19]

Minnesota will probably be voting about 7 points to the left of Wisconsin this year, and the Twin Cities suburbs are only getting more populous and significantly different culturally than the Milwaukee suburbs (which despite their blue trend are pretty red for the foreseeable future). Maybe there was some Republican crossing over for Biden, but I'm just not sure the GOP will go back to how they were pre-Trump with the results.

The trends were definitely there in the midterms in 2018, with Minnesota averaging D+11 and Wisconsin averaging D+6 between the senate and gov races, and it seems like this was just a matter of time with college educated whites getting more liberal and non-college educated whites getting more conservative.

[charcuterie]

The midwest four (MN, MI, WI, PA) are really interesting in the ways they seem to be breaking apart. Minnesota might maintain itself as a blue island for a cycle or two down the line, as WI seems to be trending right and who knows with MI and PA (actually, MI seems like a wash this year and PA might also trend right). I would be shocked if Minnesota jumped further left of the nation again in 2024 compared to the other three, but crazier things can happen.

[LiberalDem19]

The midwest four (MN, MI, WI, PA) are really interesting in the ways they seem to be breaking apart. Minnesota might maintain itself as a blue island for a cycle or two down the line, as WI seems to be trending right and who knows with MI and PA (actually, MI seems like a wash this year and PA might also trend right). I would be shocked if Minnesota jumped further left of the nation again in 2024 compared to the other three, but crazier things can happen.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that MN was diversifying faster than the country, so it could happen. It just feels right that Minnesota's to the left of the popular vote again

[charcuterie]

The midwest four (MN, MI, WI, PA) are really interesting in the ways they seem to be breaking apart. Minnesota might maintain itself as a blue island for a cycle or two down the line, as WI seems to be trending right and who knows with MI and PA (actually, MI seems like a wash this year and PA might also trend right). I would be shocked if Minnesota jumped further left of the nation again in 2024 compared to the other three, but crazier things can happen.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that MN was diversifying faster than the country, so it could happen. It just feels right that Minnesota's to the left of the popular vote again

It does feel right for me, too, but I am sad that it looks like MI won't be joining it.

[2952-0-0]

Maybe Minnesota is becoming like Illinois where the dominant and thriving metropolitan area alone makes the state solid (or at least lean) D, even when the rest of the state is seemingly a different country?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Maybe the aberration is when they tracked each other very closely. Remember that even when MN Dems were winning statewide in national R blowouts that Wisconsin was still typically voting to its right.

Some differences between the states:

- Ethnic makeup: Minnesota is more Scandanavian (traditionally liberal) and Wisconsin is more Germanic (traditionally conservative). You can see some deviation from this in Driftless Wisconsin which is more Scandanavian and therefore used to (and still does on occasion) vote for Dems
- Population density: outstate Wisconsin (south of highway 27) is on average a little more densely populated than outstate Minnesota. The corollary of this is that the Twin Cities dominates Minnesota more than Milwaukee + Madison does.
- Party strength: DFL is a much stronger party with more rural strength than the Wisconsin Democratic party. One example of this is that the DFL has been able to make much better inroads in suburbs than the Wisconsin Democratic party. It's worth noting that this is somewhat self-reinforcing: Wisconsin GOP was able to entrench itself after 2010 and retain its power and build a lot of strength through Walker whereas the MN GOP lost a close gov race and never was able to truly gain any foothold in the state executive. Who knows how these states look if MN GOP notches that 2010 win and Emmer has 4-8 years to build support.

These all interact and reinforce each other, e.g., party strength is created in part by the demography, and the geography is part of what dictates the demography.

[blacknwhiterose]

Simple: Minneapolis-St Paul counts for a bigger % of MN's population than Milwaukee and Madison do in Wisconsin.  The TCs have been growing steadily while Milwaukee's population has been almost stagnant for years.

[Not Me, Us]

It's also worth stating that the DFL is one of the best state parties in the country and is a big reason Democrats are so strong in MN.

[Minnesota Mike]

Simple: Minneapolis-St Paul counts for a bigger % of MN's population than Milwaukee and Madison do in Wisconsin.  The TCs have been growing steadily while Milwaukee's population has been almost stagnant for years.

Minneapolis/St Paul pop 733,000
Milwaukee/Madison pop 850,000

Minnesota is trending further left than Wisconsin because it's suburbs are more diverse.

[Minnesota Mike]

Maybe Minnesota is becoming like Illinois where the dominant and thriving metropolitan area alone makes the state solid (or at least lean) D, even when the rest of the state is seemingly a different country?

As I and many other Minnesota posters have been saying for years in the endless "Minnesota is trending Republican" threads.

[King of Kensington]

Minnesota is not a rust belt state.

[ilikeverin]

Maybe Minnesota is becoming like Illinois where the dominant and thriving metropolitan area alone makes the state solid (or at least lean) D, even when the rest of the state is seemingly a different country?

But it isn't entirely, either - Rochester and Bemidji swung left almost as much as some of the suburbs of the Cities.

Minnesota is not a rust belt state.

This, I think, is the biggest difference. There's not endless discussion of whether the best days of the Twin Cities are behind them; the good life in Minnesota has been the name of the game for decades.

[Agonized-Statism]

It makes sense in hindsight. The Twin Cities area is unique for the Midwest in successfully making the transition to a post-industrial economy. I don't agree with the notion that the state of Derek Chauvin and Bob Kroll is more progressive than the country at large- Minneapolis-Saint Paul built its suburbia on white flight in recent memory- but there seems to be a broader range of political discussion with police abolition not getting immediately shot down as it would in neighboring states. That, and suburban backlash, took the state strongly away from Trump this time.

Another difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin is that the former isn't a right-to-work state, and probably has had the strongest historical organized labor presence of any state in the country. The Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party was so strong, they forced a merger with the state Democratic Party that lasts to this day. I don't know how much that had to do with the 2020 results, but it's a difference nevertheless.

[King of Kensington]

It makes sense in hindsight. The Twin Cities area is unique for the Midwest in successfully making the transition to a post-industrial economy.

But it was always rather different from the rust belt.  Minnesota was barely touched by the Great Migration.

[Agonized-Statism]

It makes sense in hindsight. The Twin Cities area is unique for the Midwest in successfully making the transition to a post-industrial economy.

But it was always rather different from the rust belt.  Minnesota was barely touched by the Great Migration.

Right. Like the Northwest, less diversity has made for less white resentment. Key word being less. We'll see if that holds now that the state's demographics are comparable to Wisconsin and the Internet is eroding those kinds of regionalisms. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Minnesotan youth, exposed to the alt-right online, are more consciously racist than the older generations.

[neostassenite31]

Rural MN is significantly redder than rural WI and perhaps even slightly redder than rural MI and IA. Western and Central MN votes more like the Dakotas than the rural Rust Belt.

As mentioned in a previous post, if one is to detach the seven county metro area and cede it to Wisconsin, Minnesota becomes a safe red state and votes like MO and NE.  

[Frenchrepublican]

An interesting fact about MN is that the congressional vote was only 48.5/46 D.

[Del Tachi]

The key difference is how Minneapolis and Milwaukee are completely different types of cities.  Firstly, their sizes are not even remotely comparable (3.3M in MSP, only 1.5M in MKE).  MSP is home to eighteen F500 HQs (many of them tech/health) while MKE only has 7 (mostly retail/insurance).  MSP airport is a hub for Delta, and it has direct flights to international financial centers like LHR, CDG, and NRT.  MKE airport has a single international destination: an AirCanada connection flight to Toronto.  Minneapolis also has a more "international grade" restaurant, retail, entertainment scene.   

In short, Minneapolis is more in league with metroes like Dallas or Atlanta, while Milwaukee's peers are smaller, less "international" cities like Cleveland or Memphis.  Milwaukee never really had a chance to be anything greater (because of its proximity to "first mover" Chicago), but if UW was in Milwaukee instead of Madison it may have developed a bigger tech/science industry.  As it stands now, I'd imagine more UW grads end up in MSP than MKE.   

[lfromnj]

An interesting fact about MN is that the congressional vote was only 48.5/46 D.

Just like Iowa in 2018 was +3 D

Its Omar and King.

[King of Kensington]

The Black % may be similar in both states but the city of Milwaukee is 40% Black and the metro is 17% - and it's much more segregated (79.6 index of dissimilarity) - reflecting the rust belt typology.  The Twin Cities are less than 20% (and many are East African immigrants) and the metro is 8% (index of dissimilarity is 50.2).

[Minnesota Mike]

An interesting fact about MN is that the congressional vote was only 48.5/46 D.

Just like Iowa in 2018 was +3 D

Its Omar and King.

Yep. Biden won MN-05 80-18, Omar won it 64-26.

[prag_prog]

An interesting fact about MN is that the congressional vote was only 48.5/46 D.

The Legalize Weed parties are hurting Dems badly in MN...they again have played spoiler in some local races

[King of Kensington]

Which as I said puts it more in line with Colorado or Washington state than Michigan or Wisconsin.

Minnesota seems to have a rather unique political culture.

[Figueira]

I don't know much about Minnesota, but it seems like the Twin Cities trended left (moreso than any other metro area in the Upper Midwest) and the rural areas were a bit of a wash.

Did Minnesota have a high third-party vote in 2016?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The key difference is how Minneapolis and Milwaukee are completely different types of cities.  Firstly, their sizes are not even remotely comparable (3.3M in MSP, only 1.5M in MKE).  MSP is home to eighteen F500 HQs (many of them tech/health) while MKE only has 7 (mostly retail/insurance).  MSP airport is a hub for Delta, and it has direct flights to international financial centers like LHR, CDG, and NRT.  MKE airport has a single international destination: an AirCanada connection flight to Toronto.  Minneapolis also has a more "international grade" restaurant, retail, entertainment scene.  

In short, Minneapolis is more in league with metroes like Dallas or Atlanta, while Milwaukee's peers are smaller, less "international" cities like Cleveland or Memphis.  Milwaukee never really had a chance to be anything greater (because of its proximity to "first mover" Chicago), but if UW was in Milwaukee instead of Madison it may have developed a bigger tech/science industry.  As it stands now, I'd imagine more UW grads end up in MSP than MKE.    

Not related to political leanings, but something weird about the Rust Belt is that, as part I suppose of the legacy has the heart of American industry, there are allot of really good STEM schools in the Midwest, U of I, Purdue, Michigan, Wash U, Iowa State, Missouri S&T, etc. are basically assembly lines for bright young engineers (plus Washington University’s med school, it’s basically John’s Hopkins west and four T-14 law schools, Michigan, Northwestern, Chicago, and Wash U again), and they tend to just get sucked up into Chicago. This is one of the reasons I’m skeptical of education as a solution to de-industrialization.