Suburbs in 2024

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It seems like the GOP really overperformed Trump (and in some cases even overperformed Trump 2016) in the suburbs.  I think that the downballot results really suggest that the suburbs might trend somewhat Republican in 2024.  While there probably is some level of real Democratic trends in the suburbs, I think that they kind of got ahead of themselves during the Trump era and could snap back a bit in 2024.  For instance, had Hillary Clinton won, I think that suburbs would have voted closer to 2016 downballot races to the Trump-Clinton race this year.

[Hope For A New Era]

This is what the beginning of a realignment looks like. People change their Presidential voting habits first, and then the party-shift slowly creeps down the ballot. We should not be surprised that there were Biden + Downballot R voters. They will be full Democrats soon enough (just as Ohio's Trump-Brown voters will be full Republicans soon enough).

What's interesting is that the previous realignment occurred under very unpolarized conditions, and was preceded by somewhat of a dealignment. This realignment is taking place in an era of extreme polarization and partisanship, which makes me wonder - will it happen faster?

Edit: It seems that during the 1968-1980 period we transitioned from a regional alignment to a race and religion alignment. We seem to be currently transitioning into an education and gender alignment.

[Xing]

It's hard to say for sure, since this doesn't only depend on which voters currently live in the suburbs, but which will in 2024. For example, counties like Collin and Denton have already changed quite a bit from 2016, so it wasn't just a matter of Trump 2016 voters switching to Biden. The suburbs which continue to grow are probably more likely to continue trending at least somewhat Democratic, barring a pretty substantial change in the platforms of both parties.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the suburbs are headed towards something between 2016 and 2018. Even with house undererformance, most downballot candidates are beating what Clinton pulled in their districts in 2016.

[SnowLabrador]

Unless Donald Trump is the candidate again, the suburbs will go back to pre-2016 numbers. Those voters don't realize that the whole GOP is the biggest threat to what remains of US democracy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It was the violence surrounding the protests + defund the police that made them switch back to republican. Scared suburbanites to death and what taking the d out of drifters said, these things don't happen overnight

[Tekken_Guy]

The suburbs can definitely regain their pre-Trump strength. But these voters are not reactionaries like the rurals are. Their support for the GOP is largely for economic reasons.