My view on why Trump did so well

[Benjamin Frank]

I posted this previously in the election result thread, but I think it's an important point that isn't being recognized.

This is based on an analysis I heard from Canadian pollster Michael Adams (of the polling firm Environics.)  

This was admittedly from polling that is now as much as 20 years old, but anyway.  His polling in the U.S on this started after the 1996 election when turnout was under 50% of registered voters.  

Even though Clinton won (the Republicans held the House though), liberals had long believed that the non-voters would heavily favor them if they could just be brought to the polls. That the non-voters were disproportionately poorer and marginalized in society and were, therefore, heavily persuadable voters.

Michael Adams polling suggested the non voters were far more complex than that.  From his polling after the 2004 election in which George W Bush was reelected he said in his analysis "if you think the religious right voters who reelected Bush are bad, you should be aware that millions of non-voters would be far worse in your mind.  These are people with extremist reactionary conspiratorial views, but, fortunately for you, due to their conspiratorial views, they don't trust voting so they don't vote."

For many of these people, Trump was the first President they voted for back in 2016 or the first person they had voted for in years.  Much of what he did as President, his stating conspiratorial views, his constantly claiming on behalf of himself and of them to be a victim, was to convince these extremists that he is one of them, and that they should trust him to vote for him.

For many of his additional voters, they weren't convinced Trump was the real deal in 2016, but by 2020 they were true believers.  

That's the main reason why there were still millions more who voted for Trump in 2020 over 2016.

[Kuumo]

There is probably some truth to this theory since Trump increased his raw vote totals in so many places. It also explains why a noticeable amount of Trump's support was not picked up by the polls in both 2016 and 2020. The big question is what happens with these low-propensity voters in 2022 and 2024. Will they continue leaning Republican, stay home, or trend Democratic? Hopefully, the post-election analysis will give us some answers.

[Benjamin Frank]

There is probably some truth to this theory since Trump increased his raw vote totals in so many places. It also explains why a noticeable amount of Trump's support was not picked up by the polls in both 2016 and 2020. The big question is what happens with these low-propensity voters in 2022 and 2024. Will they continue leaning Republican, stay home, or trend Democratic? Hopefully, the post-election analysis will give us some answers.

Based on this analysis, the 2018 midterms suggest many of them are supporters of Trump but not supporters of the Republican Party.

[BlueSwan]

There is definitely something to this theory. Trump brought out nutcases who’d never ordinarily vote.

[Kuumo]

There is probably some truth to this theory since Trump increased his raw vote totals in so many places. It also explains why a noticeable amount of Trump's support was not picked up by the polls in both 2016 and 2020. The big question is what happens with these low-propensity voters in 2022 and 2024. Will they continue leaning Republican, stay home, or trend Democratic? Hopefully, the post-election analysis will give us some answers.

Based on this analysis, the 2018 midterms suggest many of them are supporters of Trump but not supporters of the Republican Party.

That's why I'm wondering what will happen with a Democrat instead of Trump in the White House and whether there are any 2024 Republican (or even Democratic) candidates that could garner their support. I could see some of them being anti-Biden enough to vote Republican in 2022, but on the other hand, I don't think there will be very many super "Trumpy" Republican congressional candidates running. For 2024, we don't have a clear picture of the likely candidates yet, so it's also hard to make any predictions there.

[2016]

There is probably some truth to this theory since Trump increased his raw vote totals in so many places. It also explains why a noticeable amount of Trump's support was not picked up by the polls in both 2016 and 2020. The big question is what happens with these low-propensity voters in 2022 and 2024. Will they continue leaning Republican, stay home, or trend Democratic? Hopefully, the post-election analysis will give us some answers.

They will sit out 2022 & 2024 if the Republican Party goes back to Pre-Trump. That's why Romney could not win in 2012!

[GeneralMacArthur]

This is definitely true.  I have some absolute nuts in my family who were never involved in politics before Trump.  Now they have someone who puts a voice to their inane Facebook-meme conspiracy theories.

One of them texted me a month ago saying she thought Dr. Fauci should be executed for what he's done to this country.  Just two days ago, Steve Bannon was cancelled from social media for saying the same thing.  People were shocked, but I wasn't.

They like Tucker Carlson, and they like Ted Cruz.  They don't trust any other Republican politicians.  And they hate the Republican Party.  They don't actually know anything about politics and they don't understand how the government works.  All they know is that they read stuff on Facebook that's absolutely terrifying, and they adopt their opposition to that stuff as part of their personality.  Since "all politicians lie and do nothing and both sides are equally bad, full of liars and crooks" they weren't involved in politics and paid no attention.  But Trump/Cruz/Carlson embody their opposition to that terrifying nonsense they saw on Facebook.

And this isn't the typical MAGA or even QAnon nonsense that you may be thinking of.  This is crazy stuff you're probably not familiar with unless you live and breathe these circles.  Did you know that Dr. Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum give secret presentations about creating a global government where they mind-control everyone with secret computer programs hidden in vaccines?  This is the kind of stuff they actually believe.  Trump dog-whistles to them, so they love him.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

There was always way more to the claim that Trump dogwhistles to conspiracy theorists like Alex Jones than to racists like Richard Spencer. It definitely isn't the only factor unless conspiracy theorists are disproportionately from rural Obama Democrat counties but I wouldn't be surprised if the support of Alex Jones gave Trump as many new voters as any major network's endorsement.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Amma-Campa Najjar isn't doing too badly, is he? If this theory is correct, maybe the hour of the Q dog Democrat really is at hand.

[Asta]

Some suggested that Trump is the symptom and not the cause of disseminating such misinformation, but my anecdotal experience suggests that it may be a bit of both. He certainly seems to have accelerated penchant for absurd conspiratorial views.

My parents did not use to spew outrageous, even debunkable theories, but the number of times they have told me these have skyrocketed in the last 4 years. Here are some of what they said.

- Meghan Markle is a man
- Obama is a Muslim
- Trump was anointed by God to punish America for Obergefell v. Hodges (I am an evangelical but even I laugh at this)
- Biden killed his first wife because he cheated on her and covered it up
- Biden has negotiated with China to steal the election

Those are actually not even the worst ones. I'm embarrassed beyond words that these kinds of views have permeated even those around me.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I think it's telling that in both 2016 and 2020, Trump himself and his campaign staff genuinely believed they were going to lose in the run-up to the election. And then both times, he surprised even himself.

This dude just breaks politics and electrifies people, both for and against him. He really speaks to a lot of people and can drive them to the polls. Turnout blew up over the past 5 years. In 2016 it was enough with a fractured opposition, but fell short in 2020. There are plenty of these kinds of politicians around the world, but they are all unique in their own way.

Which then leads to my question: can anyone other than Trump really channel Trump? I actually question whether a "nicer Trump" can actually repeat his successes in the future with the same positions but toning it down. Trump's personality is a massive part of his appeal, and it's a totally unique thing. Genuine and unreplicable. So much of his appeal was not stated positions, it was his personality and rhetoric. Yes, he stated positions that separated him from traditional Republicans definitely helped him and appealed to many, but that's not enough.

[DrScholl]

I've suspected that there were a number of off the grid people who turned out for Trump.

[Ljube]

Amma-Campa Najjar isn't doing too badly, is he? If this theory is correct, maybe the hour of the Q dog Democrat really is at hand.

I like him a lot. I believe he is presidential material.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

There are many reasons but the biggest one is probably that the economy improved under Trump before COVID, including for people at the bottom, and people remembered that - a majority of people just a couple months ago said they were better off than they were 4 yrs ago.  Plus people like a fighter: Trump survived COVID and to a lot of people the approach of the public health establishment and the Democrats seems like surrender.

[xavier110]

There is enormous distrust in institutions in our country. You can argue why (I’d point to Reagan being the little engine that could who started the disaster we are in) but all polls indicate that is the case.

It makes sense that the first real candidate to question or outright disparage all of our institutions brought a lot of people out of the woodwork who otherwise never vote.

[GALeftist]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There are probably a litany of reasons why some, of all different backgrounds, ended up being converted into voting for Trump, but for me the simplest answer is that Trump was given the benefit of the doubt on a lot throughout his tenure as President. This specifically applies to low information, low propensity voters who may not have ever followed Trump's presidency very closely. Regardless of their background they were probably able to examine specifically how they were affected by Trump's presidency and if unaffected by whatever negative things they are hearing about Trump, out of osmosis, could forgive all that since he is the President in a period for them when they're doing well or approving of something he did or represents. It follows the theme of Trump and the GOP in tending to have their moral compass point inward. They don't really care about how Trump has affected others or the very fabric of the country.

Whether it's Jews brushing aside Charlottesville because Trump moved the embassy to Jerusalem, a Cuban who fears the boogeyman of Socialism more than Trump's ironically Castro-like autocratic tendencies, a black voter who can forgive Trump's casual racism since he pardoned criminals and signed the First Step Act, a Kenosha senior who would otherwise be concerned about Trump's downplaying of the cornavirus but is more concerned about the racial unrest, or a voter of any background who quite simply thinks that Trump was solely responsible for the stable economy in his first three years and bears little to no responsibility for the coronavirus economic downturn. To me this explains the shy Trump effect happening again and how it's managed to unexpectedly transcend the divides that we all thought were clear distinctions of Trump voters and Trump opponents. His deflections, excuses, obfuscation, persecution complex, and water-muddying may have actually been more effective than we realize. And to be clear, I wouldn't refer to these voters as "Trump supporters" as much as Trump voters. I don't know that they necessarily buy into the ideology of Trumpism or will continue supporting Republicans in the future. These are probably the types of voters who may personally dislike Trump but approve of his job as President and vote for him in turn. They were Trump's new soft support as he lost the kind you found in the Wisconsin WOW counties, or places like it.

[Hope For A New Era]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Incumbent Presidents do well.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

The only way I can see Biden and the Democrats spinning s*** into gold with the midterms is if Biden oversees the pandemic's end and a massive economic recovery and be able to boast about them to an effect that he becomes popular like Bush in 2002. It could happen, but I am not holding my breath for it, we might be too polarized still by that point.

[Red Velvet]

Because Trump, for better or worse, represents a lot of the idea of the US as a whole. The “American entrepreneur” and the “American showman” combined into one person, both common archetypes in the construction of American identity, which helps give him trust and a sense of charisma. People just really like the guy, or really hate him.

Put a bit of political incorrectness and populism in him and you also have the first figure trashing the system from the inside, which creates deep bonds with people who just feel they’re invisible or that the system is rigged and all sides are horrible after years of lack of representation, simply switching between two sides that they think are too similar.

In that sense, Trump represents hope to his voters. Hope that the system can be destroyed and something can grow to substitute. It’s a giant representation crisis that is affecting not just the US, but the whole world. Internet gives average people a voice no matter who they are and once they emotionally connected with each other, they became organized.

In the end, I believe most know how Trump and other populists are a complete joke. They even know they constantly lie, but will still support them conscious of that. That’s actually why they like them, they represent the middle finger they want to give to all society. There’s an intrinsic element of nihilism in these voters behavior, they are against the system and a lot of things but there’s nothing they are actually for.

That’s why a populist movement on the opposite direction is necessary, one that gives reason to believe in a future and proposes to construct stuff instead of destroying. If there isn’t this movement, people will just keep adopting negative leaderships that at the very least speak their language.

[Hope For A New Era]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

The only way I can see Biden and the Democrats spinning s*** into gold with the midterms is if Biden oversees the pandemic's end and a massive economic recovery and be able to boast about them to an effect that he becomes popular like Bush in 2002. It could happen, but I am not holding my breath for it, we might be too polarized still by that point.

It would require threading the needle, but it's possible. As in my signature - if the Republicans keep the Senate, the optimal strategy would be to campaign against the Senate itself. Very intensely, aggressively. Turnout is how you win elections under polarization. Overwhelm the other side (see: Georgia).

[MATTROSE94]

Some suggested that Trump is the symptom and not the cause of disseminating such misinformation, but my anecdotal experience suggests that it may be a bit of both. He certainly seems to have accelerated penchant for absurd conspiratorial views.

My parents did not use to spew outrageous, even debunkable theories, but the number of times they have told me these have skyrocketed in the last 4 years. Here are some of what they said.

- Meghan Markle is a man
- Obama is a Muslim
- Trump was anointed by God to punish America for Obergefell v. Hodges (I am an evangelical but even I laugh at this)
- Biden killed his first wife because he cheated on her and covered it up
- Biden has negotiated with China to steal the election

Those are actually not even the worst ones. I'm embarrassed beyond words that these kinds of views have permeated even those around me.

I agree. For a short while in May of this year, my mom bought into some of the QAnon stuff after watching the film “Plandemic,” but quickly came back to reality in a few days.

[It’s so Joever]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

The only way I can see Biden and the Democrats spinning s*** into gold with the midterms is if Biden oversees the pandemic's end and a massive economic recovery and be able to boast about them to an effect that he becomes popular like Bush in 2002. It could happen, but I am not holding my breath for it, we might be too polarized still by that point.

It would require threading the needle, but it's possible. As in my signature - if the Republicans keep the Senate, the optimal strategy would be to campaign against the Senate itself. Very intensely, aggressively. Turnout is how you win elections under polarization. Overwhelm the other side (see: Georgia).

Ah yes the Harry Truman strategy of demonizing the Do-Nothing Congress, only replace it with senate.