Why did Biden win GA but not NC?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

One somewhat unintuitive explanation that I haven't seen mentioned yet: It looks like rural and black counties in North Carolina swung significantly towards Trump.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1324783880902234113

Incidentally, going by the NYT swing map it looks like this same phenomena occurred across the South, with Trump seeing consistent improvements across rural black ridings in both Alabama and Mississippi.

In Georgia the same thing happened, but the black vote in Georgia is far more urban and suburban than it is in North Carolina. As far as I can tell the urban black vote has generally but not universally swung slightly (1-5% typically) towards Trump and had comparatively low turnout, but the suburban black vote (and especially the educated suburban black vote) appears to have moved towards Biden by at least as much as the white suburban vote. Fortunately for Democrats in Georgia, there are way more new black and white suburbanites in Atlanta showing up for Biden than black farmers in Macon County going over to Trump.

[One Term Floridian]

African-Americans, Stacy Abrams, and the three major Biden campaign figures (Joe, Kamala, and Barack) here in GA last week.

Yeah GA was heavily targeted by national Dems, especially in the last week. Meanwhile NC seemed basically kinda taken for granted. Maybe they thought the garbage polls were actually accurate lol

[TDAS04]

I’m actually not really surprised.  I thought that NC was slightly more likely to flip, but that both would be close and that any combination was plausible.  GA is less white, more urban, and somewhat more affluent.

[Mr. Smith]

2012 NC: +2 R  [+6 R]
2016 NC: +4 R [ +6 R]

RESULT: +2 R Swing...despite Hillary's investments.



2012 GA: +8 R [+12 R]
2016 GA: +5 R [+ 7 R]

RESULT: + 3 D Swing, no investment.


So tell me again, why is 2020 supposed to be surprising here?

[S019ian Liberal]

Why did Biden win in Georgia but not North Carolina? All conventional wisdom pointed to the opposite, kind of like IN/MO 2008.

No I've had GA to the left of NC for months and both were tossup in my final map which ended up getting vindicated! I only left 3 states as tossup and called all the rest (47 states) correctly

[Skill and Chance]

Somehow, his campaign thought Georgia was a better opportunity and devoted far more resources there in the final week of the race.  They've ended up being vindicated, although we'll always have to wonder whether they would have won NC instead if they had moved their resources there -- possibly pulling Cal on their coattails.

I would be careful using this line of reasoning.  Yes, Biden campaigned aggressively in Georgia in the final weeks, but he also went to Ohio the day before the election and sent Kamala on a tour of the RGV in Texas the week before. That strongly suggests his internal polling was off just like the public polling. 

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

NC won't be called until next week. Wait until then.

[S019ian Liberal]

One somewhat unintuitive explanation that I haven't seen mentioned yet: It looks like rural and black counties in North Carolina swung significantly towards Trump.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1324783880902234113
Incidentally, going by the NYT swing map it looks like this same phenomena occurred across the South, with Trump seeing consistent improvements across rural black ridings in both Alabama and Mississippi.

In Georgia the same thing happened, but the black vote in Georgia is far more urban and suburban than it is in North Carolina. As far as I can tell the urban black vote has generally but not universally swung slightly (1-5% typically) towards Trump and had comparatively low turnout, but the suburban black vote (and especially the educated suburban black vote) appears to have moved towards Biden by at least as much as the white suburban vote. Fortunately for Democrats in Georgia, there are way more new black and white suburbanites in Atlanta showing up for Biden than black farmers in Macon County going over to Trump.

how is that unintuitive.

rural blacks have been trending r all over the country for many cycles now

[S019ian Liberal]

lol. you guys still spouting the same nonsense as 1 week ago.

before, stacey abrams was the boogey man and scape goated for all of dems' problems, now suddenly she is the state savior for entire national party and georgia? gimme a break here.

[S019ian Liberal]

obviously ga flipped before nc, demographics are destiny guys! i called it right.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I anticipated this, actually.  Everyone saying it couldn't happen ignored the fact that GA only voted 1.5% more R in 2016 than NC, and that GA was trending faster.

[prag_prog]

Aren't Rs already maxed out in Rural GA? I remember reading few months back about how Rs still have room to grow in rural NC.

[King of Kensington]

Georgia is the only state that Trump received 50%+ of the vote in last time, and (insert most likely qualifier here) lost.