Why did Biden win GA but not NC?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why did Biden win in Georgia but not North Carolina? All conventional wisdom pointed to the opposite, kind of like IN/MO 2008.

[Woody]

Biden is not winning Georgia, especially not when the provisionals and the military ballots are coming in.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden is not winning Georgia, especially not when the provisionals and the military ballots are coming in.

Have some Copium!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because both D's advanced to the runoffs and Perdue didn't do himself any good by skipping the last debate

Tillis isn't Elizabeth Dole, Dole was weaker than Tillis was that's why Kay Hagan lost to him the next election cycle

[Bootes Void]

They haven't counted NC

[Vern]

There is still a lot of ballots out in NC

[Podgy the Bear]

African-Americans, Stacy Abrams, and the three major Biden campaign figures (Joe, Kamala, and Barack) here in GA last week.

[Kuumo]

Georgia is trending Democratic faster and more consistently than North Carolina, and they didn't vote that far apart in 2016, so here we are.

[Frenchrepublican]

There is still a lot of ballots out in NC

Not enough

https://twitter.com/tmillsNC/status/1324825998219726849?s=20

[bagelman]

Atlanta is becoming a city in line with Chicago. North Carolina doesn't really compete in that regard and has conservative small metros.

[Nyvin]

Probably influx of retirees in North Carolina.

Also one bigger metro will have a stronger D trend statewide than two smaller metros of equal size to the one.

[forsythvoter]

GA has a larger black voting base than NC and Dems really took advantage of the opportunity to flip a significant bloc suburban whites, without an offsetting decline in the rural whites. Also, metro ATL is 60% of the statewide vote - no metro area in NC even comes close.

Obama's last minute rally in GA may have also tipped the state. AA turnout was up sharply in the core metro counties, and Biden got a 560K vote margin out of Fulton, Clayton and Dekalb counties alone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

African-Americans, Stacy Abrams, and the three major Biden campaign figures (Joe, Kamala, and Barack) here in GA last week.

Could John Lewis' death have had anything to do with it?

Regardless, I hope they can make the magic happen again in January with the run-offs.

[Tekken_Guy]

African-Americans, Stacy Abrams, and the three major Biden campaign figures (Joe, Kamala, and Barack) here in GA last week.

Could John Lewis' death have had anything to do with it?

Regardless, I hope they can make the magic happen again in January with the run-offs.oP

It’s very much a long shot. Perdue will do considerably better than Trump with white suburbanites. Loeffler might not, though. Also, GOP turnout will be through the roof regardless of how Dem turnout is, so there’s no real way for a turnout advantage.

[Adam Griffin]

Demographics and AVR.

NC always had more room to fall with rural whites, and from the looks of it, plenty of room to fall with black voters, too.

African-Americans, Stacy Abrams, and the three major Biden campaign figures (Joe, Kamala, and Barack) here in GA last week.

Could John Lewis' death have had anything to do with it?

Literally none of this. The Twitterati is really out in full force pushing these kinds of narratives, trying to credit GA flipping to one person (or even a handful of people). It's just so dumb. GA flipped because of the countless local organizers, party people and volunteers grinding out victory (and to a somewhat overlapping degree, the fact that Biden was able to do notably better in rural Georgia than either Clinton or Abrams).

[Cunningham Blew It]

Both NC and GA added about 500k in population since 2016. I know Atlanta probably got a lot of that, along with some in state migration. I'd also imagine that both Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham combined added about the same amount though.

Maybe GA just did a crazy good job of Democratic turnout in Atlanta?

[pantsaregood]

NC didn't have Stacey Abrams organizing in Charlotte, the Triad, and Raleigh-Durham.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tbh the actual difference in margin is obscenely close. While they may cast their electoral votes for different candidates, we shouldn't view the results in each state as meaningfully different.

[MATTROSE94]

Cal Cunningham’s sex scandal probably hurt Joe Biden in North Carolina.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Somehow, his campaign thought Georgia was a better opportunity and devoted far more resources there in the final week of the race.  They've ended up being vindicated, although we'll always have to wonder whether they would have won NC instead if they had moved their resources there -- possibly pulling Cal on their coattails.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Wasn't the saying that NC is the closest but trending the slowest, TX is the furthest but trending the fastest, and Georgia was inside the middle? I guess it was at the right temperature to flip this time.

Although I do think NC would have flipped by a larger margin than GA had the Trump campaign not took it seriously. NC was highly contested by the Trump campaign and he visited the state almost every week after labor day. Georgia was not taking seriously enough and honestly, the GAGOP were too overconfident themselves.

[GP270watch]

Georgia's Black population is 32% of voters, North Carolina is 22%.

 Biden is pulling margins of 80-90% in chunks of votes to fuel his comeback in Georgia because of mainly black voters in and around Atlanta metro.

[It’s so Joever]

Wasn't the saying that NC is the closest but trending the slowest, TX is the furthest but trending the fastest, and Georgia was inside the middle? I guess it was at the right temperature to flip this time.

Although I do think NC would have flipped by a larger margin than GA had the Trump campaign not took it seriously. NC was highly contested by the Trump campaign and he visited the state almost every week after labor day. Georgia was not taking seriously enough and honestly, the GAGOP were too overconfident themselves.

Oof unless Democrats improve with Tejanos next time, Texas certainly won’t be the fastest anymore.

[TomC]

Georgia's Black population is 32% of voters, North Carolina is 22%.

 Biden is pulling margins of 80-90% in chunks of votes to fuel his comeback in Georgia because of mainly black voters in and around Atlanta metro.

This, and Ga is about 10% more urban, 10% less rural.

[Hope For A New Era]

Turnout. The Abrams machine. I have to say, I've become quite the believer in negative partisanship now.

Sometimes everything just lines up perfectly. Indiana 2008, Michigan 2016....Georgia 2020.