Who will be the 'Biden 2020' of the 2024 primaries - on either side?

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

That is to say, someone for whom their candidacy and eventual nomination will seem obvious in hindsight, but almost *too* obvious to be mentioned in a thread three years before campaigning starts.

Go look at Democratic primary discussions on this site from around 2017 to late 2018, and you'll be shocked at the names that come up way more than Biden.

Was it because he was 'too old; won't run'? Too many 'skeletons'? Or just... boring to speculate on? "Yeah - Biden *would* win. He was Obama's Vice President. Duh."

Are there similar obvious picks for '24 that we might be disregarding for similar reasons?

Will Donald Trump (Sr.)'s eventual '24 campaign be seen, in hindsight, as inevitable? Will Bernie Sanders' third consecutive Presidential campaign make us wonder why we ever thought his age would actually stop him?

Or might Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton see a national comeback that, yeah, you know what, that kinda makes sense, they both aged really well, actually, sure, why not?

[Agonized-Statism]

Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton

Probably a little too old.

Someone logical that no one would suspect on the Republicans' side would be a pre-Trump rising star, like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, or Rand Paul. For the Democrats, anyone who would take down the probable incumbent president or vice president would not be obvious in hindsight.

[clever but short]

The "duh" candidate on the Republican side is definitely Pence, maybe Cruz. The "duh" candidate on the Democrat's side is Harris.

[Medal506]

Probably Mitt Romney but I don’t think he’ll get the nomination again

[rhg2052]

Dem: If it's not Biden, it's Kamala.

GOP: Mitt Romney will try to be the Biden of the next cycle, but it won't work for the Trumpers that hate him now.

[brucejoel99]

I mean, I personally think President Biden's re-election campaign will seem obvious in hindsight, but pretty much everybody seems to be writing this pretty obvious possibility off 3 years out, again because he'll - at 81 - be "too old; won't run."

As for the GOP, I think Pence's campaign & eventual nomination will be seen as inevitable* in hindsight, because "of course Pence would win the nomination, he was Trump's loyal 2nd-in-command after all."


*(This presumes Trump himself doesn't run again, which - y'know - of course he won't: the guy who never wanted to be President in the 1st place & then hated being President everyday of his term but only stuck around because being an incumbent offered him temporary immunity isn't gonna run again, especially if he's under indictment, if not already stuck in a NY state prison).

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats: Biden, Kamala, Yang (he's running, even if Biden does)

Republicans: Pence, Rubio, Cruz, Haley.

[Former President tack50]

Donald Trump (Sr.) for Republicans. Or if he does not run, Mike Pence.
Kamala Harris for Democrats (assuming Biden does not run for reelection)

[Former President tack50]

*(This presumes Trump himself doesn't run again, which - y'know - of course he won't: the guy who never wanted to be President in the 1st place & then hated being President everyday of his term but only stuck around because being an incumbent offered him temporary immunity isn't gonna run again, especially if he's under indictment, if not already stuck in a NY state prison).

Worth noting Trump could theoretically run from prison.

Didn't someone in the 1910s do that? Or alternatively, Obama came close to losing one of his 2012 primaries to someone in prison as well.

I don't think Trump would be very successful doing that (unless he somehow manages to sell himself as a "political prisoner") but it wouldn't be 100% unprecedented.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

*(This presumes Trump himself doesn't run again, which - y'know - of course he won't: the guy who never wanted to be President in the 1st place & then hated being President everyday of his term but only stuck around because being an incumbent offered him temporary immunity isn't gonna run again, especially if he's under indictment, if not already stuck in a NY state prison).

Worth noting Trump could theoretically run from prison.

Didn't someone in the 1910s do that? Or alternatively, Obama came close to losing one of his 2012 primaries to someone in prison as well.

I don't think Trump would be very successful doing that (unless he somehow manages to sell himself as a "political prisoner") but it wouldn't be 100% unprecedented.

It was Socialist hero Eugene Debs in 1920. His sentence was later commuted by President Harding in 1921.

[Ferguson97]

Mike Pence for the Republicans. Kamala Harris for the Democrats.

[Samof94]

Mike Pence 2024 = Biden 2020
Ted Cruz 2024 = Sanders 2020
Niki Haley 2024 = Elizabeth Warren 2020
Thats how I think they'll be perceived and Pence Cruz and Haley will be the three frontrunners unless Trump runs again then he's definitely the favorite and everyone else would be second-tier candidates.

Ted sounds like someone who might not run for Senate then.

[dw93]

Pence or Haley and that's if Cotton, Hawley, Pompeo, and/or one of the Trump kids split the cultist vote.

[LabourJersey]

I think a huge part of the Biden 2020 phenomenon is that he had the highest name recognition of anyone in the field by a decent margin.

Same with Trump; he jumped in and instantly had great name recognition.

In huge fields and in the balkanized media world we live in, the person with the greatest or second-greatest name recognition has a much greater advantage than before.

So the "well, obviously" candidates on the GOP side can really only be Donald Sr, Don Jr or maybe Pence. Cruz and Haley just don't have the name recognition. For the Democrats it's really just Harris.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Donald Trump

[here2view]

Romney or Pence

[Xing]

Democrats: Harris
Republicans: Pence