Will Georgia become a North Carolina or Virginia?

[ajc0918]

How will Georgia trend in the future? Was this year's result the result of a massive investment in voter registration that's unlikely to continue in the future or will the state go hard left like Virginia / Colorado?

[forsythvoter]

How will Georgia trend in the future? Was this year's result the result of a massive investment in voter registration that's unlikely to continue in the future or will the state go hard left like Virginia / Colorado?

It seems to be more like Virginia in the sense that the rural areas here are already so maxed out that the Rs simply have no place where they are gaining a lot of new voters while the Dem party is still on a steep growth trajectory.

Rs used to be able to offset Democratic votes from Fulton and Dekalb with R votes from Cobb and Gwinnett. Now Cobb and Gwinnett are giving D's 100k+ leads that even R exurbs like Forsyth and Cherokee can't offset. All while Dekalb and Fulton give 500K leads to Dems.

And speaking of Forsyth and Cherokee, they are both trending massively Dem so their R margins are actually declining too. On top of that the rural areas are stagnant or losing population while mid-sized cities are seeing moderate D trends.

[Del Tachi]

One pothole for Democrats going forward in GA is that their base is still (sub)urban Blacks in Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton.  Decreased margins/turnout here can put the GOP back on top.   

In a future where the trends of 2020 accelerate, it's not unreasonable to think that SWATS or Clayton County go from 90-10 Dem to something more like 80-20 Dem, which could make a difference.

There's also still room for Dems to fall further in North GA, since Biden's #s there represent a marginal improvement over Clinton.  In 2024, I could see Harris falling behind even Clinton somewhere like Floyd County (Rome), while GOP nominee Ron DeSantis or Josh Hawley improves on Trump's numbers in Cobb/Gwinnett/Fulton. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Long-term, Georgia is more of a Virginia (unless it becomes a more popular retirement location like NC/SC/FL), but I think it might take a bit longer for it to become apparent.  The reason for that is that I think suburban trends got a little ahead of themselves during the Trump era and will snap back a bit before continuing to trend slowly Democratic.  But that snap back might buy the Republicans a couple elections in Georgia first.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's likely to just keep swinging Democratic. The potholes mentioned are a good case for that not happening in a few imminent election cycles, but it will almost certainly trend Democratic in these - even if it swings Republican, it will do so to a far smaller extent than most other states.

The electorate's probably more polarised and less persuadable than VA's so the GOP future may be bleaker here in the long term.

[lfromnj]

It's likely to just keep swinging Democratic. The potholes mentioned are a good case for that not happening in a few imminent election cycles, but it will almost certainly trend Democratic in these - even if it swings Republican, it will do so to a far smaller extent than most other states.

The electorate's probably more polarised and less persuadable than VA's so the GOP future may be bleaker here in the long term.

Yup the GOP basically has until 2032 or so to figure out a plan in Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

Virginia. 2022 is the GOP's last potential hurrah (and only likely then due to possible general/runoff vote variance if Ds fail to clear 50).

2020 should have answered this question easily in comparison to the rest of Swing State America's behavior.

[lfromnj]

Virginia. 2022 is the GOP's last potential hurrah (and only likely then due to possible general/runoff vote variance if Ds fail to clear 50).

2020 should have answered this question easily in comparison to the rest of Swing State America's behavior.

The GOP can still hold the legislature as I doubt they go for extreme super majorities like the VA GOP did in the state house.