What states fell off the battleground Tuesday night?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think that we need to wait to see the overall NPV before deciding this entirely, but I would broadly agree with Ohio and Iowa now being red states and Virginia and Colorado blue states.

[Frenchrepublican]

Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio (if there was any doubt left)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Barring some large swing, VA, CO, MN, NH, ME-AL, TX, OH, and IA aren't looking very decisive.

The core swing states are NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, ME-02, NE-02, NC, GA, and FL.

[MATTROSE94]

Florida.

[Figueira]

Just Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico (if it was on the battleground to begin with). Iowa and Ohio are about where Virginia and Colorado were before; we'll see how they hold up in 2024.

[Frenchrepublican]

Just Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico (if it was on the battleground to begin with). Iowa and Ohio are about where Virginia and Colorado were before; we'll see how they hold up in 2024.

So OH which votes 12 or 13 points to the right of the country is still competitive but VA which is 5 or 6 points to the left of the country is Safe D ?

[Kalimantan]

That 150,000 vote lead in Michigan is pretty big, way bigger than in WI or PA. I have to wonder how competitive this state will be in future without Trump on the ballot. He seems to be about as good a republican fit for the state as you can get.

[Figueira]

Just Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico (if it was on the battleground to begin with). Iowa and Ohio are about where Virginia and Colorado were before; we'll see how they hold up in 2024.

So OH which votes 12 or 13 points to the right of the country is still competitive but VA which is 5 or 6 points to the left of the country is Safe D ?

How far to the left or right of "the country" a state is is irrelevant if Democrats win the popular vote every time. And Virginia has a clear trend whereas Ohio does not.

[Dr. Arch]

Realistic competitive 2024 map:

MN has dashed away from Republicans. It's looking more like IL than WI or MI. MN should start at LEAST as lean D, but it can go as far as starting as Likely D. Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in Anoka, Carver, and Scott counties.

[dspNY]