What states fell off the battleground Tuesday night?

[Tekken_Guy]

What competitive swing states fell off the battleground Tuesday night?

[Crumpets]

Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, and maybe Ohio. Virginia and Colorado to the extent that they even were swing states anymore.

[Roll Roons]

Ohio, Iowa and arguably Florida. Though Georgia joined it, and Arizona and North Carolina cemented their statuses as battleground states. Texas inched closer, but probably isn't quite there yet.

[VAR]

IOWA

[Benjamin Frank]

Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, and maybe Ohio. Virginia and Colorado to the extent that they even were swing states anymore.

Maybe Minnesota as well.

Not sure about New Hampshire. It's voted Democratic in every election at the Presidential level since 2004, but at the state level it's something of a whiplash state.  Not sure that can't happen at the Federal level as well.

[Benjamin Frank]

Ohio, Iowa and arguably Florida. Though Georgia joined it, and Arizona and North Carolina cemented their statuses as battleground states. Texas inched closer, but probably isn't quite there yet.

Florida is interesting because while it's very close, the Republicans appear to have a durable 51% of the vote.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

New Hampshire, Maine

Will almost certainly vote for the next Republican candidate to win the popular vote.

A semi-trollish answer would be Texas. To win the state Democrats have to thread the needle with their coalition much more carefully than has been assumed.

[Roll Roons]

Ohio, Iowa and arguably Florida. Though Georgia joined it, and Arizona and North Carolina cemented their statuses as battleground states. Texas inched closer, but probably isn't quite there yet.

Florida is interesting because while it's very close, the Republicans appear to have a durable 51% of the vote.

Yeah. It seems like Democrats just can't get over the hump there. It really does look like AZ, GA and NC are better targets going forward.

[Red Wall]

In the Republican column Iowa, Ohio, Florida, inelastic and Republicans have a reliable majority, it was R+6 this election, as Republican as Virginia was Democrat.

In the dem column Virginia and Colorado. Republicans could still win Virginia last cycle with an Obama 2012 pv win but it was D+6 this election. Colorado was D+10 so scrap it. Republicans can't win it if they are only winning Douglas by  single digits, El Paso by low double and losing Jefferson by 20.

As for other states NH and MN were D+4 so still winnable for Republicans and Maine was slightly to the right of Virginia, republicans are closer there than Democrats in Texas but it's a fringe battleground trending on their direction. Biden was a good fit for New England and Trump probably disappointed the more secular WWC of the region by being too close to the evangelical wing of the GOP. And Minnesota also has the secular Scandinavian vote.

One state that has rejoined the battleground field: New Mexico. Dems are playing with fire there if latinos keep trending R. Whites there are more rural than Arizona too so they are more Republican, same for Latinos which makes them more prone to swing R. NM latinos vote like RGV latinos (plenty of rural mexicans at both) instead of Arizona latinos, where Biden didn't lose much.

[wbrocks67]

Iowa, Ohio, and FL are out.  FL could debate I guess if Dems can get a better grasp on Hispanics again, but it seems in general meh.

Arizona, Georgia in.

Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada remain. (NV only bc it still has a small margin, but obv very tough to crack for Rs still)

Wouldn't really call NH, ME, or MN battlegrounds anymore.

Texas will still end up shifting nearly ~3.5% to the left from 2016, so it's still worth paying attention to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX, FL, OH and IA, Dems got slaughtered in all the state legislaturs in those states.

Beto has egg on his face due to fact HEGAR lost and all the polls showed HEGAR within the margin of error especially PPP. She lost by 10, and PPP hasn't learned anything from R2K polls that were banned in 2010 after the R2K polls showed Strickland beating Kasich and he lost

TX even among AA and Latinos are pro guns

[Figueira]

Under the broadest definition: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico if it still counted. Expect Iowa and Ohio to still show up as tossups in the polls in 2024 though, only to ultimately vote Republican by a similar margin to 2020. Arizona an Georgia were already battlegrounds. New Hampshire, Maine, Texas, and Minnesota were and still are, but flipping them is a tall order.

[win win]

Florida is the Republican's Nevada

[SWE]

Colorado is the only one I think you can reasonably say, maybe Iowa

[Benjamin Frank]

TX, FL, OH and IA, Dems got slaughtered in all the state legislaturs in those states.

Beto has egg on his face due to fact HEGAR lost and all the polls showed HEGAR within the margin of error especially PPP. She lost by 10, and PPP hasn't learned anything from R2K polls that were banned in 2010 after the R2K polls showed Strickland beating Kasich and he lost

TX even among AA and Latinos are pro guns

Why would anybody use Y2K polls?  They can only count two digits.

[SInNYC]

Really only CO fell off. For all the other states, we dont know whether its just that Biden is a bad fit or Trump is a good fit or that they really fell off.

But GA and AZ can now be added to battleground states. And the blue wall isnt a blue wall, its a blue wall with 40% of the bricks missing.

[DabbingSanta]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

[charcuterie]

It's looking rough for Dems in IA (probably +12R relative to the nation), OH (+12 or so R), FL (+8ish R) more than before. They got hurt in TX, which is still +10R.

On the other hand, the GOP should be worried that AZ and GA are trending left, but they're still battlegrounds. Maine, NH, and Minnesota swung a little left too.

[Calthrina950]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

I agree with this. But Georgia voting for Biden, while Florida and Texas are sticking with Trump, is an astonishing, but not unprecedented result. In 1992, H.W. Bush held Florida and Texas while Georgia narrowly went for Clinton. In 1980, Carter easily held his home state but lost Florida and Texas by double digits to Reagan. And the reverse occurred in 1964-Johnson won Florida and Texas, while Goldwater carried Georgia.

[DabbingSanta]

Realistic competitive 2024 map:

[DabbingSanta]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

I agree with this. But Georgia voting for Biden, while Florida and Texas are sticking with Trump, is an astonishing, but not unprecedented result. In 1992, H.W. Bush held Florida and Texas while Georgia narrowly went for Clinton. In 1980, Carter easily held his home state but lost Florida and Texas by double digits to Reagan. And the reverse occurred in 1964-Johnson won Florida and Texas, while Goldwater carried Georgia.

This is something DTC was right on. Georgia voted to the left of Florida and Texas.

This is probably a result of three factors:

1) Hispanics, especially Cuban Americans, swinging to the GOP
2) Increased growth of Atlanta metro
3) Americans living in suburban areas swinging to the Democrats

[NCJeff]

At the presidential level, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, NC, Texas, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan,Pennsylvania, and Maine were all close enough to warrant being contested in the future.  The only states that I can imagine being declared out of contention are states that I do not believe were heavily contested already (Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia).

Sure, Florida and North Carolina continue to stymy the Democrats - but if their floor is ~46-47%, why would the Democrats stop contesting these states unless they were in full triage mode?

So, essentially, no change.

[Red Wall]

Realistic competitive 2024 map:

If Texas is lean R then New Mexico is lean D, both are fringe battlegrounds trending against their respective parties who voted around 9 points more favorably to their party than the nation. That's a heavier lift than Trump winning Michigan (D+5.5 in 2012) or even Biden winning Georgia (R+7 in 2016) but if there is a shocking result to either side in 2024 as a result of a massive shift it'll come from them. Also NM is small so you need fewer voter switches to produce a large shift, in Texas you need a ton.

[Del Tachi]

Ohio and Iowa cemented themselves as Republican states.  Colorado and Virginia really cemented themselves as Democratic states

Georgia moved from Tilt/Lean R to pure tossup

[vileplume]

New Hampshire, Maine

Will almost certainly vote for the next Republican candidate to win the popular vote.

A semi-trollish answer would be Texas. To win the state Democrats have to thread the needle with their coalition much more carefully than has been assumed.

I generally agree. New Hampshire and Maine are very idiosyncratic and are far, far less divided than the rest of the country. If a GOP candidate is actually popular they'll be among the first places to snap back in a rightward direction.

I don't think that Texas is unwinnable for the Dems though I suspect it will remain a lean Republican state going forward (ditto Florida).  

Ohio and Iowa have definitely fallen off the battleground, going the way of Missouri a decade before it. I also think now Georgia's flipped it won't go back, the senate run offs may prove to be the last gasp of the GOP there (assuming of course that they actually win). Colorado and Virginia are obviously well and truly gone for the GOP. Honestly it would probably be a far better use of the GOP's money and time investing in New Mexico rather than Colorado.