What states fell off the battleground Tuesday night?

[Real Texan Politics]

All republicans have to do is call the opposing candidate a radical socialist and they win Florida.

As for no-longer-battleground states, I would say Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia.

[Astatine]

All republicans have to do is call the opposing candidate a radical socialist and they win Florida.

As for no-longer-battleground states, I would say Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia.

NM wasn't really a battleground in the 2012 and 2016 elections, and considering that the Democrats' winning margin in the Senate race was relatively poor (the GOP didn't really target it, the consensus was that NM Sen is somewhere between Likely and Safe D), I would be cautious to write it off completely. Definitely more likely to flip than CO or VA.

[Real Texan Politics]

All republicans have to do is call the opposing candidate a radical socialist and they win Florida.

As for no-longer-battleground states, I would say Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia.

NM wasn't really a battleground in the 2012 and 2016 elections, and considering that the Democrats' winning margin in the Senate race was relatively poor (the GOP didn't really target it, the consensus was that NM Sen is somewhere between Likely and Safe D), I would be cautious to write it off completely. Definitely more likely to flip than CO or VA.

Yea I'd probably agree, especially if the republicans continue to improve with latinos. Colorado may be a done deal due to Denver and its suburbs, but New Mexico is more rural with the sole exception of Albuquerque.

[GALeftist]

I am now an unironic believer in Titanium Tilt R Florida. I am also a believer in Titanium Tilt D Minnesota and, to a lesser extent, Nevada.

Anyways, Iowa is off the table, as is Ohio for anyone not named Sherrod Brown, and even for him I'm skeptical. Arizona is officially a swing state, and Colorado is officially Virginia 2.0. I sort of don't think New Mexico has been competitive for a while now. In the South, Georgia and North Carolina should clearly be top priorities for both parties. Not willing to say that New Hampshire and Maine are gone for the GOP, but they're probably no less gone than Florida is for Democrats. Texas is lurching leftwards, but not fast enough to quite get it for Democrats yet; maybe by 2030.

The battlefield for the foreseeable future is very narrow. Probably literally six states, give or take a few.

[pbrower2a]

Another way of saying it: the battleground states are now (6% or less one way or the other in a nearly 50-50 election)

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
ME-02 (I guess)
NE-02 (I guess)
 

[Frenchrepublican]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

[Roronoa D. Law]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

AZ might follow as well.

[forsythvoter]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

AZ might follow as well.

The thing is the same trends in GA are also evident in NC with the difference being Ds still have room to fall with rural whites in NC. If GA becomes like VA, wouldn't be surprised if NC does too one or two cycles later.

[Frenchrepublican]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

AZ might follow as well.

The thing is the same trends in GA are also evident in NC with the difference being Ds still have room to fall with rural whites in NC. If GA becomes like VA, wouldn't be surprised if NC does too one or two cycles later.

The problem with this theory is that in NC conservative trending areas are growing too, that's why democrats are not able to make significant gains in the state, NC is more like FL on this aspect.

[MATTROSE94]

Definitely Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, and Florida. Texas is probably where Georgia was in 2012 or where Virginia was in 2004, but could trend more Republican if the Republican Party continues to make gains with African American and Hispanic voters. New Mexico might be back to its 2004 status as a battleground state as well.

[Ferguson97]

Iowa and Ohio are now basically likely Republican. Not winnable for the Democrats except in a landslide.

Colorado and Virginia are out of reach for the GOP (and have been for years if we're honest).

Minnesota and Nevada are Titanium Tilt D and Florida and Texas are Titanium Tilt R.

Georgia and Arizona are now true battleground states.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have cemented their status as battleground states are weren't just one-off's in 2016.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New Hampshire, Maine.

I'd be very careful about that if I were you.

[forsythvoter]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

AZ might follow as well.

The thing is the same trends in GA are also evident in NC with the difference being Ds still have room to fall with rural whites in NC. If GA becomes like VA, wouldn't be surprised if NC does too one or two cycles later.

The problem with this theory is that in NC conservative trending areas are growing too, that's why democrats are not able to make significant gains in the state, NC is more like FL on this aspect.

That's a good point but this was true in GA too up until fairly recently. Rs for a while were able to offset D margins out of Cobb and Gwinnett until the exurban vote started trending D too. I think there's room for Rs to fall though in some of these R voting NC counties around Charlotte and Wake. Union, Cabarrus and even Gaston showed some significant leftward trends this cycle.

[Kuumo]

Iowa and Ohio are gone for Democrats; Colorado and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Florida and Texas look tougher for Democrats than before the election, and Minnesota looks tougher for Republicans.

Way too early 2024 ratings (assuming ~2-4 point D advantage in NPV):
Safe R: IA, OH
Likely R: ME-02
Lean R: FL, TX
Tilt R: NC, WI
Tossup: GA, MI, PA
Tilt D: AZ
Lean D: MN, ME-AL, NH
Likely D: NE-02, NV
Safe D: CO, VA

[Catalyst138]

I’m not sure about New Mexico flipping on the presidential level any time soon. Biden won it by double digits, which is still around 6 points above the PV just like in 2016. It’s more that Ray Lujan underperformed, though he still won it by a “likely” margin.

Hispanic voters in NM are much more liberal than in a state like Florida or even Nevada.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Virginia and Colorado for the Democrats.

Iowa and Ohio for the Republicans.

Florida and Texas now lean Republican.

New battleground: Georgia

The thing is that GA could very well be a battleground state for only one or two cycles before falling off the map (like VA)

AZ might follow as well.

The thing is the same trends in GA are also evident in NC with the difference being Ds still have room to fall with rural whites in NC. If GA becomes like VA, wouldn't be surprised if NC does too one or two cycles later.

The problem with this theory is that in NC conservative trending areas are growing too, that's why democrats are not able to make significant gains in the state, NC is more like FL on this aspect.

That's a good point but this was true in GA too up until fairly recently. Rs for a while were able to offset D margins out of Cobb and Gwinnett until the exurban vote started trending D too. I think there's room for Rs to fall though in some of these R voting NC counties around Charlotte and Wake. Union, Cabarrus and even Gaston showed some significant leftward trends this cycle.

Was about to say the same thing. Forsyth, Cherokee, and Fayette did that same march to 70% territory and then freefall. Looks like it might be happening in Greater Nashville right now too. 

[It’s so Joever]

Just Iowa and Ohio.
Also people, please remember trends aren’t permanent.
While Democrats should abandon these two states (except for Sherrod Brown lol) for now...I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they became competitive again by the 2030s.

[Alcibiades]

Minnesota perhaps looks to have more in common politically with VA and CO than its Midwestern neighbours after the convincing Biden win. It is fundamentally not a Rust Belt state, being anchored by a growing, educated metro, which really has no comparison in the Midwest apart from Chicago.

Worrying signs for Republicans include the extremely narrow victory in Anoka County (not exactly the typical upscale suburb one would expect of a place which swung almost 10 points D), and the continued inability to clear 45%.

Not saying it’s completely fallen off the battleground map, but the near-consensus on Atlas before the election that the next Republican path to 270 will have to go through MN looks doubtful.

[neostassenite31]

Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio are definitively off the map. Virginia is also borderline finished for the GOP in presidential elections.

Maine (AL), Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are tilt/lean D for now. Florida and Texas tilt/lean R.

[neostassenite31]

Minnesota perhaps looks to have more in common politically with VA and CO than its Midwestern neighbours after the convincing Biden win. It is fundamentally not a Rust Belt state, being anchored by a growing, educated metro, which really has no comparison in the Midwest apart from Chicago.

Worrying signs for Republicans include the extremely narrow victory in Anoka County (not exactly the typical upscale suburb one would expect of a place which swung almost 10 points D), and the continued inability to clear 45%.

Not saying it’s completely fallen off the battleground map, but the near-consensus on Atlas before the election that the next Republican path to 270 will have to go through MN looks doubtful.

The results of this election cements MN as a sort of hybrid/intermediate between the "Rust Belt" states of WI, MI, and PA (the term "Rust Belt" itself was coined by a Minnesotan) and the leftward trending states of CO, VA and possibly other sunbelt states in the future. MN is much more religious than NH or ME for effective comparison.

MN still has large swabs of rural territory and exurban small towns packed with an electorate that is effectively a gold mine for the modern-day GOP, but substantial population growth in the main urban center (as others stated previously) has caused a moderate divergence from WI, MI, and PA.

Regardless of education levels and urbanicity, a key feature of our state is that our electorate is still significantly whiter than the nation at-large. So, if a Republican presidential nominee is able to: 1). claw back white college voters to their 2012/2016 margins while maintaining Trump's margins among the WWC; or 2). win or come within a point of winning the NPV, he/she would be in very good shape to take the state.

There is no inherent geographical separation in voting patterns here that cannot be explained by education levels or race, with the exception of a few residual areas in the Arrowhead region that make up <5% of the state's population.

I agree that MN is rather unlikely to be the tipping point state in 2024 at this point.

[libertpaulian]

Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia.

Ohio...more likely than not.

Florida is still a swing state, but Leans R.

[lfromnj]

Add one future one?
Delaware ?
Good trends for the GOP here imo

[kwabbit]

VA and CO have gone from lean D to basically safe at this point. FL is now a lean R instead of a tossup and GA is now a tossup instead of a lean R. NC remains a Lean R. IA and OH are now just less than safe R. WI, MI, and PA remain tossups. I think WI and MI are more fruitful for Republicans in the future than PA is. PA has the PHI suburbs to offset rural/exurban R gains, but WI and MI don't. WI in particular seems like Republicans could put together a consistent winning coalition if they can find someone who appeals to WOW and the Driftless area. Trump doing so well in WI despite tanking in WOW and an ongoing COVID surge in the state bodes well for future success for the GOP in WI. In MI it looks better for Democrats, but an R who appeals more to Oakland and Grand Rapids could be a winner. PA looks best for Democrats; the rurals seem pretty maxed out there at this point for the GOP, but improvement in the suburbs provides a realistic path to victory. AZ and NV seem like tossups, with NV providing a better opportunity for GOP if they can continue their growing success with Hispanics and AZ better for Dems if they can continue their success in the suburbs. TX is still stronger than lean for the GOP, especially if Dems are losing some Hispanics now. NH and ME could be in play with the right Republican, but for now they are lean Dem, with ME being lean R.

[Crumpets]

New Hampshire, Maine.

I'd be very careful about that if I were you.

I don't think a Republican couldn't win them under the right circumstances, but it's pretty clear they won't be part of a Republican's path to 270 any time soon. I doubt they'll put much money or resources into them or lots of campaign stops there unless there's some favorite son effect at play that might make them more competitive than usual.

[GALeftist]

I would caution my Republican friends not to get cocky about Wississippi. Democrats showing signs of life in WOW isn't good for statewide elections. There's still a lot of room for Democrats to claw their way up here, and that might offset continued gains by the GOP in rural areas, even if they can keep those margins up without Trump.

With that caveat, I do think that we've learned that Wisconsin is the furthest right of the Blue Wall; it seems as though Trump might have maxed out the WWC margins in PA and MI in 2016, although I should also not get cocky.