Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[seb_pard]

Due to my job I have not been able to participate in this thread as much as I would love to, but this weekend will dedicate all my free time to the election.

As a Chilean living abroad, I can't vote in this election, but based the commune I voted before, my choices would be the following:

Governor: Karina Oliva (Comunes - Broad Front)
Mayor: Nicolas Preuss (Christian Democrat - United for Dignity)
Counselor: Fabian Salas (Convergencia Social - Broad Front)
Constitutional Convention: Constanza Schonhaut (Convergencia Social - Apruebo Dignidad)

I'm particularly excited about Schonhaut and hope she can be elected, but her chances are not that high (although I would say that within my circles a lot of people will vote for her, including my mom).


Regarding predictions, I really don't know, but from what I'm reading and listening, Chile Vamos is going to do poorly (although being united help them, their own people are very dissatisfied). Hope the Broad Front performs well and that Patricio Zapata (DC), Guillermo Larrain (DC) and Agustin Squella (independent supported by the Liberal Party) can get elected, as they are people that I deeply admire and respect.

[seb_pard]

On the PH, I would say that they are a cult, I still remember a friend from high school that studied before my school at a very hippy school in Chile, and he had a friend that her mother was a member of the party (and was a perennial candidate in many elections) and she was very weird and was part of new age groups with other people that also were members of the party. I don't know if they are a cult, but they are weird people that do weird stuffs together.

[seb_pard]

I would say that in the case of Chile, my generation (from the 90s) was kind of a "baby boom" generation (see the population pyramid from 2017). During the 90s the country experienced high economic growth that translated in the expansion of the middle class in the country, of which a relatively important share hired cable TV.



In those times many public TV channels (like Chilevision and la Red) started to broadcast many Japanese cartoons, such as Saint Seiya, Dragon Ball, Slam Dunk, Detective Conan, Pokemon, etc.), in addition, a Chilean pay television channel (called Boomerang) was created and broadcasted Japanese cartoons all day. So basically all kids in those times watched those shows, because everyone did it (I wasn't that fan of anime, but watched nevertheless). Anime was the tv shows for kids. You need to mix that with internet arrival so many people started to discover animes that wasn't on public TV, such as Naruto.

Otakus are are niche but big culture, but most of the people of my age have a higher than usual knowledge on Anime. Still remember an ex-girlfriend, very preppy in a Chilean way, loved an obscure anime called Elfen Lied and had to watch with her (great show btw). And my best friend loves Shingeki no Kyiojin.


The same can be said abot the WWE, which was very popular in the 90s/2000 in Chile.

I think the situation would be similar in other latin american countries.

[seb_pard]

They are the most disciplined electorate, but they are now in total disarray (that is why you have Henry Boys, Gonzalo de la Carrera, Rojo Edwards, etc etc).

Just sent this image to some friends that were supposed to vote for La Lista del Pueblo because they think the right will take all seats of the district (despite that is nearly impossible due to La Reina and Penalolen)

[seb_pard]

Just listened a short interview with Axel Callis (sociologist and electoral analyst) on what to expect this weekend. Key takeaways:
-Despite that there are some uncertainties regarding the logistics of a 2-day election (particularly due to lack of infrastructure in some places of the country), we can expect a relatively smooth process
-High probability of lower participation than the previous referendum (7.5m voters), but he thinks interest have increased in the last days and there is a feeling among the population that this is an historic election. So he thinks there is a 6m floor. The turnout will depend on youth population (which increased by massive numbers in the last election, particularly in working class parts) and +65 population (which was very low last election). The latter will probably increased due to vaccination process, but by how much is the question.
-Despite what people are commenting, expect a fast counting process. SERVEL will probably publish first results around 8:30pm and from there we can expect a fast bleeding of votes. Order will be: Constitutional members, Governors, Mayors, Counselors
-Regarding the Constitutional Convention, expect a lot of unknown names (to our centralist society) to appear in the spotlight on Monday. Independent members, regional leaders and women will make a surprise.

If you want to listen the interview click the following link (around 20 minutes interview, starts at 1:16:30)
https://sonarfm.cl/sonar-informativo-0#

[seb_pard]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

[seb_pard]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

Lower than for the original plebiscite? Or about the same?

I think final turnout will be slightly lower than the original plebiscite. Important to have in mind that yesterday's turnout was 40% of last year, so is not that low.

[seb_pard]

Will there be exit polls/predictions when polls close at 6PM (local time)?

I don't think so, Chile don't use Exit Polls here. What you can expect is live counting on TV (so TV stations start to compile data across the country)

https://youtu.be/UUZHINr7RLE?t=2182

This is an example of what you can expect after 6pm

[seb_pard]

One important info: Magallanes Region (the southernmost of the country) have a different time zone and they will close polls 1 hour before the rest of the country, so the counting will start at that time.

Magallanes have become one of the most interesting regions of the country: They have a strong autonomist/separatist sentiment with movements aiming for more decision-making competences,  Apruebo won with 79.6% and is one of the two regions (the other one being Aysen, just north of Magallanes) where Guillier beat Piñera (56.3% vs 43.7). In addition, the region has one of the largest Croatian communities outside Croatia (in terms of share of population)

[seb_pard]

Polls starting to close in Magallanes, will try to update results as they are released

If you want to watch some news and live counting, I recommend the following streaming (joint transmission between CNN Chile and Chilevision), it doesn't require a VPN:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD5Of2I8JXk

[seb_pard]

Counting started with Constitutional Members-Indigenous groups (17 seats in total).

[seb_pard]

First poll stations counting the general Constitutional in Punta Arenas, and independent Andrea Pivcecic, regionalist Elisa Giustinianovich and Rodrigo Alvarez (UDI and former Pinera minister) are doing fine, although these are preliminary/anecdotical results.

This region elects 3 constitutional members

[seb_pard]

Very messy process (the Chilean way), some places started counting Constitutional (as it should be, according to SERVEL), others Mayors, others councilors. Is going to be a long night.

[seb_pard]

Honestly, by seeing the counting, the right is doing pretty bad (and actually the crazy ones like Teresa Marinovic are doing well).


Independents are doing very very good. I don't see a big drop in turnout, lower but not that significant (is even higher in places like Nunoa). We will see later.

[seb_pard]

Final result from a polling station in Santiago

[seb_pard]

Stingo (Ind within Broad Front) slaughtering his district.

Final result from Maipu

[seb_pard]

La Lista del Pueblo doing really really good.

[seb_pard]

Constitutional Convention with 1.2% of the vote (slower than real count):

[seb_pard]

I know it is very very early but it seems Vamos Por Chile is winning a plurality? (Admittedly a weak one)

I thought the Chilean right was in a horrible spot?

There are all together in just one list, while the rest is divided across several lists. But what the right is aiming is to get a third of the seats in the Constitutional Convention, and apparently they are not obtaining that, anything less than that is a total failure for them, despite winning a plurality.

[seb_pard]

Results with 8.3% of the vote (lower than SERVEL)

[seb_pard]

I love my country

[seb_pard]

Results with 8.3% of the vote (lower than SERVEL)

The results are the same in SERVEL, from what I'm seeing. The 8.3% number is the turnout, right?

Yeah you are right, that 8.3% is turnout with current vote (assuming universe of 14m voters)

[seb_pard]

How do the independents lean politically?

I would say mostly to the left, as is a mix of academics, NGOs members and social activists. One example is Benito Baranda (first in District 12, with 12.63% of the vote) was the historic leader of Home of Christ, a very important jesuit NGO working for people in extreme poverty. He focus a lot on poverty and stuff like that and is center-left but he comes from a right-wing background (his brother was a minister of Pinera).

[seb_pard]

The best for me is seeing the Apruebo Dignidad's good results (18%, 3% higher than Lista del Apruebo). In Chile it has been very easy to blame them for everything, while the rest of the opposition acted in a terrible way (I'm aiming particularly at leaders of DC and PPD). Today, the were able of becoming the main opposition group, reaching high percentages in working-class neighborhoods. Proud of them.

[seb_pard]

I see that a Republican is getting 30% in the race for mayor of Las Condes. Is that just local protest vote (I assume it's a place where UDI have been in power since forever), or is it indicative of something re: the kind of people who live there?

Is a bit of the two. Las Condes is the natural stronghold (because is where half of the economic elite live, with rest living in Vitacura, Lo Barnechea, Chicureo and some other pockets), which is very right-wing and not moderate but very disciplined in terms of voting. What happened in Las Condes is that Lavin choose his successor but Lavin, which is a master marketer and a chameleon, tried to portrait himself as a social-democrat (well, he defined as a Bacheletist/aliencist 15 years ago) so he probably angered some people in his coalition in a time they feel under siege.

The Republican candidate, Gonzalo de la Carrera, is a well-known figure (he has a radio show in Agricultura, the favorite radio station within the right-wing) and he is crazy and a nasty man (you can check some of his controversies) and I think he perfectly represent part of the right-wing that don't want to negotiate now and would love to have the military back. They have always been there but for the first time they feel unheard and not represented (lol), so they are voting for this candidate.