Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.
Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left: 68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)
The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats
I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.
More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piņera ran the country into the ground
That's because you don't know Chilean party acronyms 
. Chile Digno is the communist coalition and is now allied with the Broad Front. Both of them are called "extreme-left" by the right. Besides, that projection is really favorable to the right. I think is insane to think that they are only going to fall 3%
Ah I see, that makes more sense then. Still a very distant third place, but if it is favorable to the right, that makes sense
Poll
