Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[MaxQue]

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 _{Chileans will appreciate this joke}) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piñera ran the country into the ground

That's because you don't know Chilean party acronyms . Chile Digno is the communist coalition and is now allied with the Broad Front. Both of them are called "extreme-left" by the right. Besides, that projection is really favorable to the right. I think is insane to think that they are only going to fall 3%

Ah I see, that makes more sense then. Still a very distant third place, but if it is favorable to the right, that makes sense

They got very greedy and many of their usual allies walked away and allied with the center-left instead, if I remember other Chilean threads well.

[MaxQue]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

 Now say that without crying.

Come on, he cannot cry, he is just a bunch of Russian lines of computer script.

[MaxQue]

Also, a group of clowns personalities, mostly related to the ex-Concertación has formed a Whatsapp group called "Amarillos por Chile" _{(oh, of course they call it a movement, but so far it is literally a whatsapp group that sends letters to La Tercera and El Mercurio)}. They say that the convention is going for a dangerous "refoundational" path with their radical proposals of, eh, recognizing indigenous peoples and having actual regional governments. They say that Chile wants moderate reforms and want to lobby for a "yellow" constitution (In Chile Amarillo/Yellow is used to refer to "moderate heroes" and people who change positions on issues a lot).

They are led by the insufferable columnist Cristián Warnken and all the usual suspects such as Mariana Alwyn, Soledad Alvear and Andrés Velasco and also a few DC congress members like Ximena Rincón.

These people are like the 10-15% of support that the left has lost in the Barrio Alto in the last 10 years, a part of the elite that think that the economic and political model is good and should be preserved with minimal technocratic changes (as in, Bachelet reforms were too much for them) and also usually complain and how antidemocratic the left has become lately with an, honestly, fairly disturbing blind eye for the right wing authoritarianism of the likes of Kast and human rights abuses of the Piñera government.

A big part of the problem seems to be that everyone empowers them by calling them centrists instead sayign the truth and calling them right-wingers?

[MaxQue]

Pedro Pool, an Osorno businessmen also known as the "Chilean Milei", said in an online show that if Approve wins, he is going to create "armed resistance groups" that will kill more than the number of people killed by Pinochet and that the exiles would be sent to Dawson Isle with "little clothes", also threatening to execute the indigenous ex-constituents and others like Bassa and Aria. Pool has said he has presidential ambitions and interviewed Kast during the last presidential campaign. Kast praised him because "he tell it like it is". Cute. Of course, since he isn't left wing, the mainstream press has already moved on.

Any reason why he wasn't arrested?