Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Former President tack50]

Oof for Chile, Single non transferrable vote is one of the worst election systems out there Basically plurinominal FPTP.

[Former President tack50]

On the PH, I would say that they are a cult, I still remember a friend from high school that studied before my school at a very hippy school in Chile, and he had a friend that her mother was a member of the party (and was a perennial candidate in many elections) and she was very weird and was part of new age groups with other people that also were members of the party. I don't know if they are a cult, but they are weird people that do weird stuffs together.

I don't think hippies doing hippie stuff together counts as a cult. The humanist movement on its origins is somewhat cultish as shown in the book Palomita Blanca but considering how long and how often the party has been in the spotlight in the last 30 years if they were a real cult we would know for sure by now. Besides, maybe is a "Distrito 11" thing, you have those ecological communities there and what not

As a side note, remember when I say that anime was mainstream in Chile?:

snip

What's with Latin America and anime usage in politics? Between this candidate I mentioned on AAD in Perú (who wasn't even the only otaku pandering candidate in that election!) and now this in Chile; Latin America might have more anime in politics than even Japan itself lmao

[Former President tack50]

I know it is very very early but it seems Vamos Por Chile is winning a plurality? (Admittedly a weak one)

I thought the Chilean right was in a horrible spot?

[Former President tack50]

How do the independents lean politically?

[Former President tack50]

Ok so uh, given the results, should I worry about Chile becoming a Bolivarian Republic of some sort and West Venezuela in a couple of years? (Given the left holds a 2/3 supermajority)

Or is the Chilean left not a danger in that way?

[Former President tack50]

Ok so uh, given the results, should I worry about Chile becoming a Bolivarian Republic of some sort and West Venezuela in a couple of years? (Given the left holds a 2/3 supermajority)

Or is the Chilean left not a danger in that way?

In some ways, Chile is arguably the most "European" Latin American country, and this includes the facts that 1) it has a strong civil society that you can't just stomp on like Chávez did, 2) it has a well-developed, diverse economy that would be hard to sink even if you tried, not least because Codelco ≠ PDVSA, 3) the vast majority of insane anti-democratic people are found on the far-right. And don't forget that this two-thirds majority includes people like Christian Democrats.

Really, this feels like being in 1980s Spain and asking if the country is going to turn into Soviet Union after the González landslide(s).

Tbf that was a genuine concern in some circles here right after the 1982 election, that Gonzalez had a "secret plan" of big nationalizations and creating a socialist economy. These spiked up after one of the very first things he did in office was precisely nationalizing a big corporation. Admittedly a shady one and it was a good action (plus that corporation was later reprivatized anyways) but it definitely didn't make people less afraid at the time. Obviously the fears were very unfounded with hindsight given he embarked in the exact opposite of sweeping nationalizations and siding with the Soviets by privatizing stuff and campaigning to remain in NATO.

[Former President tack50]

How powerful is the Chilean Senate? Will it be a problem for Boric that there is no left-wing majority there?

Is perfect bicameralism. It will be a problem, though they also can't pass anything against the government without the chamber that has a leftwing majority (plus PDG that is 3 vaguely populist guys that really aren't worse than having DCs and 3 hardcore evangelical pastors lol). Boric can pass some basic populist measures like higher basic pensions with the help of some RN senators like Ossandon though, I think he should focus on that, not ing up so much, and go all in for the new constitution.

Will there be new elections after the new constitution gets passed? (and if so at what level, presidential, legislative, both?)

[Former President tack50]

Unrelated to everything, but I find it hilarious that the Chilean slang word for "far-rightist/dictatorship sympathicer" is facho; just like here where we use facha for that

[Former President tack50]

I don't know how hot of a take this is, but I don't think 50%+1 is a particularly good threshold for a Constitution. Like sure, I suppose that means it should be enacted, but it would also mean a constitution that is more likely than not headed for failure.

There is a reason why most Constitutions in the world are passed in huge and historic "grand coalitions" , with most if not all major parties supporting them. Then of course they go into a referendum, which said constitution wins by close to North Korean margins because everyone relevant supports it.

Let's look at the Pinochet constitution indeed actually. That ones passed by 91% of the vote in 1989 (I ain't counting the 1980 referendum for obvious reasons). Why? Because literally everyone agreed on it.

I will say I might be biased by being Spanish, where our constitution passed by the very North korean margin of 92-8 back in 1977, with again opposition being basically irrelevant (Basque nationalists asked people to abstain, and the leftist nationalists did ask people to vote it down but that's it). Then again my limited understanding does lead me to believe the current Chilean constitution is worse or more restrictive for left-wing politics than the current Spanish constitution. (on the flip side, Chile does seem a lot more open to reforming their constitution than we do)