Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

As I said, the tracking is different from their polls. The crosstabs you are referring to are from their regular poll and are totally nonsensical. They have Boric losing 25-35 and winning those over 60 years, which is totally different from the first-round results and the crosstabs from every other pollster.

[kaoras]

Okay, first of all, leaked Polls:

CADEM: Boric 39 (-1), Kast 36 (+1)
Atlas Intel: Kast 40.9 - Boric 39.1
I've seen a conflicting reports on Atlas Intel "tracking", I've not been able to determinate if it is real or not

So there was movement against Boric last week. It seems that the debate today will be decisive.
On other hand, the highlight of the ARCHI one was that Kast accused Boric of sexual abuse. This was the harassment claim of the first round / primary. The woman in question said that Boric had apologized for his "actitudes machistas", said she was voting for him and called Kast to stop using her.

In other news, Bachelet is in Chile and everyone is making that huge deal. Kast even asked to have a meeting with her. That's hilarious. I honestly don't know why Kast seem so worried about her, she isn't THAT popular

[Mike88]

Okay, first of all, leaked Polls:

CADEM: Boric 39 (-1), Kast 36 (+1)
Atlas Intel: Kast 40.9 - Boric 39.1
I've seen a conflicting reports on Atlas Intel "tracking", I've not been able to determinate if it is real or not

So there was movement against Boric last week. It seems that the debate today will be decisive.
On other hand, the highlight of the ARCHI one was that Kast accused Boric of sexual abuse. This was the harassment claim of the first round / primary. The woman in question said that Boric had apologized for his "actitudes machistas", said she was voting for him and called Kast to stop using her.

In other news, Bachelet is in Chile and everyone is making that huge deal. Kast even asked to have a meeting with her. That's hilarious. I honestly don't know why Kast seem so worried about her, she isn't THAT popular

Yeah, I had that thought to. I recall she ending her term with a pretty big disapproval rating, however, not that high compared with Piñera. Maybe Kast wants to look "presidential", in a way like he's talking to a UN official, or something.

Polls, or rather leaked polls, seem to show a big tightening of the race. Kaoras, how do you sense the mood in both camps?

[kaoras]

Okay, first of all, leaked Polls:

CADEM: Boric 39 (-1), Kast 36 (+1)
Atlas Intel: Kast 40.9 - Boric 39.1
I've seen a conflicting reports on Atlas Intel "tracking", I've not been able to determinate if it is real or not

So there was movement against Boric last week. It seems that the debate today will be decisive.
On other hand, the highlight of the ARCHI one was that Kast accused Boric of sexual abuse. This was the harassment claim of the first round / primary. The woman in question said that Boric had apologized for his "actitudes machistas", said she was voting for him and called Kast to stop using her.

In other news, Bachelet is in Chile and everyone is making that huge deal. Kast even asked to have a meeting with her. That's hilarious. I honestly don't know why Kast seem so worried about her, she isn't THAT popular

Yeah, I had that thought to. I recall she ending her term with a pretty big disapproval rating, however, not that high compared with Piñera. Maybe Kast wants to look "presidential", in a way like he's talking to a UN official, or something.

Polls, or rather leaked polls, seem to show a big tightening of the race. Kaoras, how do you sense the mood in both camps?

Well, Bachelet has gotten more popular retrospectively, especially among the left because of her foresight at trying to deal with most of the issues that emerged with the social uprising. She also has a very intense following among lower-income and old people, demographics were FA and Boric struggle, so in that sense she could help, but is not like she is going to decide the election by herself which is the image that you get if you are following the news.

I think the campaign has gotten very nasty with a lot of polarization (something rather predictable but still sad). I think most Boric people are mildly optimistic but I don't know what to expect honestly.

[Niemeyerite]

Is Bachelet expected to officially endorse Boric?

[kaoras]

Is Bachelet expected to officially endorse Boric?

Boric Campaign Manager said yes, but it will be likely be low-key given her role at UN

[kaoras]

Very boring debate. Draw at 0 so far.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If only Tulio Triviño were here to give his thoughts.

[Red Velvet]

The poll tightening is scary… I hate how almost all elections seem to be a 50/50 these days.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Take a shot every time Boric mentions “people watching at home”.

[kaoras]

If only Tulio Triviño were here to give his thoughts.

I'm seizing this opportuniy to share this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk0g1Yy7THs

The hymn of the Southern Hemisphere on this Holiday Season.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Matías del Río looks like he stepped off the page of a Dr Seuss book about depression.

[kaoras]

This is so boring I don't even want to keep watching. I thought we were done.

[kaoras]

And it's over. It had a high rating but Jesus Christ, what a snoozefest.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And it's over. It had a high rating but Jesus Christ, what a snoozefest.

I thought the drug test bit was fun.

[kaoras]

And it's over. It had a high rating but Jesus Christ, what a snoozefest.

I thought the drug test bit was fun.

Yeah, that and Kast saying "I can't be homophobic, my daughter has gay friends".

[Lumine]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

[kaoras]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:



The psychological effect of Kast winning the first round was way too much. And Kast is just that scary for the left.

[Lumine]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:

Oh, I agree, I have no doubt fear against JAK will undoubtedly motivate the left, what I wonder is whether the more apolitical part of the electorate will buy into it, or whether they'll find it insincere and/or reward JAK for being seen as more consistent. My guess is it will be the former, but it's still interesting to think about it.

[kaoras]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:

Oh, I agree, I have no doubt fear against JAK will undoubtedly motivate the left, what I wonder is whether the more apolitical part of the electorate will buy into it, or whether they'll find it insincere and/or reward JAK for being seen as more consistent. My guess is it will be the former, but it's still interesting to think about it.

Oh, yea, I honestly don't know what goes on in the minds of those people, we will know on Sunday I guess. I recently talked with a teacher that said something along these lines: "My neighbor says that this election is complicated because both candidates are extreme, but Boric isn't that extreme, right? The communist candidate was Provoste wasn't she?, not him"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:



The psychological effect of Kast winning the first round was way too much. And Kast is just that scary for the left.

can't entirely figure out what's being said here other than hugging grandmas and dancing, saving us from fascism, can you translate?

[kaoras]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:

The psychological effect of Kast winning the first round was way too much. And Kast is just that scary for the left.

can't entirely figure out what's being said here other than hugging grandmas and dancing, saving us from fascism, can you translate?

Guaton [Kinda despective way of referring to someone fat] Boric, you have to become the most concertacionist of concertacionists [Concertación, the old centre-left that ruled chile for 24 years and that Boric used to criticise a lot, currently kinda NPS, supported Provoste in this election], hug every grandma in every family health center, privatize some things and dance cumbia [a reference to a meme about Bachelet doing it], become a sell out, ctm* and save us from fascism

CTM means son of a b*tch but in this context, he is not calling Boric that, he is using it to give more emphasis to what he is saying.

[kaoras]

Bachelet officially endorses Boric

https://twitter.com/h_ciudadano/status/1470771036224376838

This is what all the fuzz is about. And now some RN deputies are calling her to resign from the UN. This is a "huge deal" only because the right themselves are making a huge deal out of this because god knows why

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there enough centrist Chileans who like Bachelet but were still unsure about Boric for this endorsement to have a significant impact?

[Estrella]

If only Tulio Triviño were here to give his thoughts.

https://twitter.com/TuIioTrivino/status/1470616778027851776