Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Criteria:



If this poll were to come true, I think it would be the first time ever that women vote more left wing than men.

Similar trends here with Bolsonaro 2018, after men being more favorable to Lula and even Dilma as well. Probably it’s effect of the radicalization of the right, women usually opt for the more centrist option, while men tend to be more susceptible to right/left populism and radicalism.

Also, Boric numbers with the poorest group (they are less than his overall numbers) are eye-opening.

Not really. Overall the left-wing support in Chile has always had the shape of an inverted U, being stronger with the middle class. While in cities there is a more linear relationship, poor rural zones are overwhelmingly right-wing, except for the North (In this election you can still see that in Coquimbo and Aconcagua). Hell, analysis of the left support in the 60's and 70's showed that even back then they did better with the more educated working class and that one of their worst groups was actually extremely poor and marginal voters.

[DL]

Not really. Overall the left-wing support in Chile has always had the shape of an inverted U, being stronger with the middle class. While in cities there is a more linear relationship, poor rural zones are overwhelmingly right-wing, except for the North (In this election you can still see that in Coquimbo and Aconcagua). Hell, analysis of the left support in the 60's and 70's showed that even back then they did better with the more educated working class and that one of their worst groups was actually extremely poor and marginal voters.

Any theories as to why that is the case?

[kaoras]

Not really. Overall the left-wing support in Chile has always had the shape of an inverted U, being stronger with the middle class. While in cities there is a more linear relationship, poor rural zones are overwhelmingly right-wing, except for the North (In this election you can still see that in Coquimbo and Aconcagua). Hell, analysis of the left support in the 60's and 70's showed that even back then they did better with the more educated working class and that one of their worst groups was actually extremely poor and marginal voters.

Any theories as to why that is the case?

There isn't much research into that (or any electoral topic outside abstentionism tbh). Some researchers said that support for the left among the working class pre 1973 was actually dependent on them believing that social classes existed, basically, having class consciensusness, and that this only happened in more educated and prosperous areas. The relationship between leftism and better living standards is really old, the guy from 1954 who I cited in the last page already noted that back then.

Anecdotally, I have noted that more militantly left wing people tend to be very aspirational, wanting to get ahead in life and putting a lot of value in education. And when they do actually get ahead they keep their voting patterns because the right is repulsive to them at a personal and cultural level.

 Honestly the FA pattern of support is the inverted U in steroids,   their best results are among the "new" middle class that used to be poor in the 80's and 90's, with the difference that, unlike the Concertación, they also tend to struggle with the urban poor. But even the Concertación had this pattern, a paper from 2001 showed that the support for the Concertación and the right was tied among unskilled workers but the Concertación beat the right 3-1 among qualified workers.

[H. Ross Peron]

Guess Marx was right about the lumpenproletariat...

More seriously, it makes sense if slightly more educated and skilled workers were more likely to be unionized. Also the rural poor are probably much more religious compared to the urban working class. Is there any class component to Evangelicalism in Chile? Evangelical converts in Latin America seem to be a mix of upwardly mobile "new" middle class types and the poor. Of course, many evangelicals still vote for left parties in Latin America for class reasons.

[PSOL]

Guess Marx was right about the lumpenproletariat...

More seriously, it makes sense if slightly more educated and skilled workers were more likely to be unionized. Also the rural poor are probably much more religious compared to the urban working class. Is there any class component to Evangelicalism in Chile? Evangelical converts in Latin America seem to be a mix of upwardly mobile "new" middle class types and the poor. Of course, many evangelicals still vote for left parties in Latin America for class reasons.

There’s also the aspect that while some of the Lumpenproletariat are not willing as a class person to join the workers movement, as a whole they have no class consciousness and are thus convinced by gut feelings or uncaring about politics.

What is the turnout of the rural poor and unemployed relative to the population?

[kaoras]

Guess Marx was right about the lumpenproletariat...

More seriously, it makes sense if slightly more educated and skilled workers were more likely to be unionized. Also the rural poor are probably much more religious compared to the urban working class. Is there any class component to Evangelicalism in Chile? Evangelical converts in Latin America seem to be a mix of upwardly mobile "new" middle class types and the poor. Of course, many evangelicals still vote for left parties in Latin America for class reasons.

Yeah, union membership was very correlated with left support. The stereotype of evangelicals is that they are usually poor, but I think in reality they are mixed with upper classes. But, the one area in the country that has actually shifted from being ancestrally left-wing to voting for the far right, the Arauco Coal Basin, has a very high concentration of evangelicals, so in that area at least it checks out.

There’s also the aspect that while some of the Lumpenproletariat are not willing as a class person to join the workers movement, as a whole they have no class consciousness and are thus convinced by gut feelings or uncaring about politics.

What is the turnout of the rural poor and unemployed relative to the population?

In general poor people vote much less than the rich, but turnout tends to be higher in rural areas, especially noticeable in municipal elections. I don't think there is much data about the unemployed, I think a few polls have the crosstab but I don't recall anything noteworthy.

But yeah, most poor people don't vote and is extremely common to hear that "it doesn't matter who wins, I will have to work nevertheless"

[kaoras]

There is some drama about a supposed deal between Parisi and Kast. Kast supposedly offered Parisi a ministry and a pardon for his child support lawsuit if Parisi endorsed him. Apparently, the "source" for this info is Gino Lorenzini, who, let's remember, was the one who created all the infrastructure for the PDG before Parisi took the party away from him. It seems that he is still bitter lmao.

Parisi has called this story fake and tbh I don't think there's much credibility to it, but the whole ordeal is pretty funny to watch, especially considering that Kast will be on Parisi web show this Sunday (and Boric on Tuesday)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Making an endorsement seems like a silly thing to do for Parisi, no?

[kaoras]

Yeah, it doesn't make sense. PDG will do a non-binding online consult among its members.

BTW: The "last" CADEM poll (polling ban starts tomorrow)

Boric 40 (+1)
Kast 35 (+2)

#Thightening

[kaoras]

Pulso Ciudadano:

Boric 42.2 (+1.8 )
Kast 28.3 (+.3.8 )



#tightening

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1467290768230563843

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

#loosening?

[jaichind]

Why are the polls so off from each other? Even  if there is house effects you would think from a credibility point of view the pollsters would find a way to adjust for it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why are the polls so off from each other? Even  if there is house effects you would think from a credibility point of view the pollsters would find a way to adjust for it.

Are they? Besides Pulso Ciudadano/Activa, they seem to all be showing a narrow Boric lead. That could be herding, of course, but it’s not like we’re seeing wild disparities.

[kaoras]

Why are the polls so off from each other? Even  if there is house effects you would think from a credibility point of view the pollsters would find a way to adjust for it.

Are they? Besides Pulso Ciudadano/Activa, they seem to all be showing a narrow Boric lead. That could be herding, of course, but it’s not like we’re seeing wild disparities.

No, there are actually quite a few disparities.

Activa (no consistent bias) and Data influyes (left bias) both show massive double-digit Boric leads.

Feedback (very heavy right winb bias on first round); CADEM (fairly accurate, but with right-wing bias in the past), and Criteria (no consistent bias) are showing a Boric with a relatively comfortable but not massive 5-6 point edge)

Atlas Intel (underestimated every single leftist candidate on the first round save for Artés) and Black and White (Sichel pollster) have an extremely narrow Boric lead.

_{There's also Studio Publico, who predicted 37% for Kast in the 1st round and had Kast leading Boric 45,3-45%, basically a tie, but if you looked at their crosstabs they had Boric leading 47-42}

The house effects are all over the place but maybe you could conclude that Boric is in the middle range and the other pollsters are showing the upper and lower ranges.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Gay marriage approved in the Senate (and Chamber of Deputies). Kast stays mad.

[Mike88]

Love Chilean campaign songs:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1468706068226363398

And this clip from the Kast family is so cringe:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1468706642401370119

Kast's face is hilarious. He's like thinking "They're all horrible" xD xD

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

After a rather extended period of waffling, Boric confirms that he will not do an interview on Parish’s radio program.

[kaoras]

After a rather extended period of waffling, Boric confirms that he will not do an interview on Parish’s radio program.

It was fairly obvious that Parisi was going to grill him, it was a lose lose situation for him. He is lucky (or likely he knew in advance) that a lot of PDG scandals came out today in the press (Yeah, PDG ended up being a pyramid scheme, who could possibly had seen that coming)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

After a rather extended period of waffling, Boric confirms that he will not do an interview on Parish’s radio program.

It was fairly obvious that Parisi was going to grill him, it was a lose lose situation for him. He is lucky (or likely he knew in advance) that a lot of PDG scandals came out today in the press (Yeah, PDG ended up being a pyramid scheme, who could possibly had seen that coming)

I’m shocked, I can’t believe it, how could Dr. Parisi do such a thing etc

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/PipoAraos/status/1469109321615101954

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/PipoAraos/status/1469109321615101954

The Atlas intel tracking is different from their regular polls. In any case Atlas Intel underestimated every single leftist candidate in the first round so it basically just showing their house effect.

(Also, I'm amazed at your capacity of always posting the most obnoxious and hackish twits you can find relating to Chile and Argentina, and also I have to lol at the notion that Boric downturn has anything to do with the universally hated ISAPRES, that's has been barely in the agenda or in social media)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How was the ARCHI debate? Will it matter?

[kaoras]

How was the ARCHI debate? Will it matter?

It was very nasty. I would say it is a tie because each side got clips of the other being destroyed and whatever. I'm kinda busy right now, that's why I'm not commenting on all the polemics that much.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/PipoAraos/status/1469109321615101954

The Atlas intel tracking is different from their regular polls. In any case Atlas Intel underestimated every single leftist candidate in the first round so it basically just showing their house effect.

(Also, I'm amazed at your capacity of always posting the most obnoxious and hackish twits you can find relating to Chile and Argentina, and also I have to lol at the notion that Boric downturn has anything to do with the universally hated ISAPRES, that's has been barely in the agenda or in social media)

I try to post tweets over images where possible because guests can actually see the former but sometimes the only tweets that include all the relevant context have hackish takes attached. So, uh, reposts and retweets aren't endorsements

Specifically, the interesting part of the AtlasIntel tracking poll isn't the margin but the trend: JAK fell precipitously and dipped below Boric after the first round before suddenly shooting up again over the past few weeks. The crosstabs are also unexpected: while the supporters of the other candidates (obviously except Sichel) either heavily favour Boric or are evenly split, non-voters and those who spoiled their ballot go almost as strongly for Kast as Sichel voters.

I wouldn't say this means Kast is the favourite but it seems like he's regained some momentum and the final result should be quite close.