Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

Are you counting DC as Center Right? And Parisi as Far Right? Both of those are wrong.

[Colbert]

Pero aunque es el dato más importante del día, no es el único relevante que dejó la jornada: la participación superó largamente el 50%, más que el Plebiscito constitucional y más que cualquier torneo electoral desde que existe el voto voluntario;

Fuente: Emol.com - https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2021/11/21/1038840/analisis-cifras-eleccion-presidencial.html

record of voting since vote is not obligatory

[kaoras]

I will give my thoughts tomorrow I think. But Parisi capitalized the populist discontent that the leftist independents capitalized in the Constituent elections.

Also, I wouldn't count PDG as right, those guys are anyone guess how they will behave.

[Colbert]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

Are you counting DC as Center Right? And Parisi as Far Right? Both of those are wrong.

my bad about DC, not center right, exact.


But Parisi is anti-immigration. Nolens volens, far right for me (or populist right, if you prefer, whatever, in the rightist bloc, distinct from moderate right)

[kaoras]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

Are you counting DC as Center Right? And Parisi as Far Right? Both of those are wrong.

my bad about DC, not center right, exact.


But Parisi is anti-immigration. Nolens volens, far right for me (or populist right, if you prefer, whatever, in the rightist bloc, distinct from moderate right)

Parisi didn't made inmigration part of his campaign. He campaigned against both left and right as a pure populist, and his platform isn't right wing in any form. He has the same pension system proposals as Yasna Provoste.

[Colbert]

there are hard-right-winger which approve social positions (me, by exemple, if I was american, I would be for a danish social welfare instauration)

[Colbert]

about Parisi and immigration

https://videoencontexto.com/franco-parisi-le-da-duro-a-la-onu-y-critica-la-llegada-de-haitianos/



https://www.elnortero.cl/noticia/listado/franco-parisi-debemos-tener-una-ley-de-inmigracion-tan-estricta-como-en-estados-unid

[jaichind]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

But could not one argue that a Far-Right candidate will have a lot tougher time to hold on to the Center-Right vote and maybe get some defections from the Left voting bloc?  I guess one could counterargue that Boric is also out of the mainstream and the same logic will apply to his ability to grow his vote as well.

[kaoras]

about Parisi and immigration

https://videoencontexto.com/franco-parisi-le-da-duro-a-la-onu-y-critica-la-llegada-de-haitianos/

Look, you only have to actually take a look at the parliamentary results (where the left now has a narrow majority even against Right+PDG) to see that a very big chunk of Parisi voters pick the left in the other elections. Parisi did not campaign as a right winger.

[Colbert]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

But could not one argue that a Far-Right candidate will have a lot tougher time to hold on to the Center-Right vote and maybe get some defections from the Left voting bloc?  I guess one could counterargue that Boric is also out of the mainstream and the same logic will apply to his ability to grow his vote as well.

I agree with all your points. If Kast would have been opposed to a center left candidate, I doubt he would have win.

[Logical]

85,08% polls counted

Kast 28,06%
Boric 25,48%

Parisi 13,10%
Sichel 12,48%
Provoste 11,81%
MEO 7,61%
Artes 1,46%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I imagine a lot of the Parisi voters will…stay home.

[Logical]

How Chilean Antarctica voted:

Kast 34
Boric 4
Parisi 4
Sichel 2
MEO 2
Provoste 1
Artes 0

#PenguinsforPinochetistas

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How Chilean Antarctica voted:

Kast 34
Boric 4
Parisi 4
Sichel 2
MEO 2
Provoste 1
Artes 0

#PenguinsforPinochetistas

One of the five comunas that voted for Rechazo. IIRC it’s mostly a military base.

[Red Velvet]

I will give my thoughts tomorrow I think. But Parisi capitalized the populist discontent that the leftist independents capitalized in the Constituent elections.

Also, I wouldn't count PDG as right, those guys are anyone guess how they will behave.

Let me give this straight, whether it’s comfortable or not: the left everywhere needs to go back to its roots and abandon “woke”. The results in the North of Chile are just another evidence of that in another country.

Economic left-wing agenda + Anti-immigration position + Less academic rhetoric and personal presentation are key into getting those populist voters in the North who definitely are not Right-wing, but still didn’t vote for the left in this round. You gotta connect with the working class masses in order to win, not with progressive city “elites”.

Chile in this round reminded me more of US or European electoral dynamics and in LatAm for the left to win, you can’t take the more populist sectors of the working class for granted.

[xelas81]

Isla de Pascua (Easter Island)

BORIC                 972   33,59%   
KAST                   581   20,08%
PROVOSTE           352   12,16%   
MEO                    323   11,16%
SICHEL                314   10,85%   
PARISI                 311   10,75%   
ARTES                   41    1,42%

[Estrella]

I will give my thoughts tomorrow I think. But Parisi capitalized the populist discontent that the leftist independents capitalized in the Constituent elections.

Also, I wouldn't count PDG as right, those guys are anyone guess how they will behave.

Let me give this straight, whether it’s comfortable or not: the left everywhere needs to go back to its roots and abandon “woke”. The results in the North of Chile are just another evidence of that in another country.

Wrong. The North isn't West Virginia.

Parisi and Errazuriz have 2 things in common. First of all, they had strength in the Norte Grande (the regions I keep mentioning) but limited success in the Norte Chico (Atacama and Coquimbo). Historically all of northern Chile has been THE left win stronghold thanks to the mining tradicions that saw the birth of the worker's movement and the left itself. Since the return of democracy, the left has had a huge underlying problem with the north, not because the mines are gone, but because the miners are now absurdly rich. To give you an idea, right now the unions of CODELCO are threatening strike after rejecting a proposal of 31 thousand dollars in additional benefits per worker. No tradition can withstand that amount of money long term. Tarapacá shift happened under the dictatorship and now is one of the most right-wing areas of the countries (likely helped by Pinochet policies like a free tax area for commerce in Iquique). Antofagasta was clearly showings signs of malaise by 2013 and the bottom fell for the left in 2017 in all the north, even in the Norte Chico that had been more stubbornly left wing. Now, the plebiscite and the elections in May are showing that 2017 might have been a fluke, but we will have to see in November.

Economic left-wing agenda + Anti-immigration position + Less academic rhetoric and personal presentation are key into getting those populist voters in the North who definitely are not Right-wing, but still didn’t vote for the left in this round. You gotta connect with the working class masses in order to win, not with progressive city “elites”.

Please, I beg you, take one look at the results. Chilean elite votes overwhelmingly for the right. The working class, however defined (and defining who exactly is working class in 2021 is a big problem) generally votes for the left. Parisi did as well as he did because he's an anti-political independent. Concertación dinosaurs or left-wing activists would never pull that off, no matter how loudly they would bellow about kicking out the Venezuelans. Again, this isn't America.



Take a guess where Kast does best. It's not the reddest areas, I can tell you that much.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric’s speech was…fine. Sounds like he cried a bit beforehand but he hit the points he needed to hit.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

How Chilean Antarctica voted:

Kast 34
Boric 4
Parisi 4
Sichel 2
MEO 2
Provoste 1
Artes 0

#PenguinsforPinochetistas

One of the five comunas that voted for Rechazo. IIRC it’s mostly a military base.

Those who aren't there as military personnel are still left over propaganda pieces from the Pinochet days, right? Trying to get a permanent population to grant more legitimacy to the claim etc

[Red Velvet]

I will give my thoughts tomorrow I think. But Parisi capitalized the populist discontent that the leftist independents capitalized in the Constituent elections.

Also, I wouldn't count PDG as right, those guys are anyone guess how they will behave.

Let me give this straight, whether it’s comfortable or not: the left everywhere needs to go back to its roots and abandon “woke”. The results in the North of Chile are just another evidence of that in another country.

Wrong. The North isn't West Virginia.

Parisi and Errazuriz have 2 things in common. First of all, they had strength in the Norte Grande (the regions I keep mentioning) but limited success in the Norte Chico (Atacama and Coquimbo). Historically all of northern Chile has been THE left win stronghold thanks to the mining tradicions that saw the birth of the worker's movement and the left itself. Since the return of democracy, the left has had a huge underlying problem with the north, not because the mines are gone, but because the miners are now absurdly rich. To give you an idea, right now the unions of CODELCO are threatening strike after rejecting a proposal of 31 thousand dollars in additional benefits per worker. No tradition can withstand that amount of money long term. Tarapacá shift happened under the dictatorship and now is one of the most right-wing areas of the countries (likely helped by Pinochet policies like a free tax area for commerce in Iquique). Antofagasta was clearly showings signs of malaise by 2013 and the bottom fell for the left in 2017 in all the north, even in the Norte Chico that had been more stubbornly left wing. Now, the plebiscite and the elections in May are showing that 2017 might have been a fluke, but we will have to see in November.

Economic left-wing agenda + Anti-immigration position + Less academic rhetoric and personal presentation are key into getting those populist voters in the North who definitely are not Right-wing, but still didn’t vote for the left in this round. You gotta connect with the working class masses in order to win, not with progressive city “elites”.

Please, I beg you, take one look at the results. Chilean elite votes overwhelmingly for the right. The working class, however defined (and defining who exactly is working class in 2021 is a big problem) generally votes for the left. Parisi did as well as he did because he's an anti-political independent. Concertación dinosaurs or left-wing activists would never pull that off, no matter how loudly they would bellow about kicking out the Venezuelans. Again, this isn't America.



Take a guess where Kast does best. It's not the reddest areas, I can tell you that much.

Yeah and if those people voted for an anti-politics independent, it’s because they had reasons to NOT vote for this left this time. I agree it’s not just anti-immigration, this topic happens to be only one factor of multiple ones that now evidence the disconnect the left now finds in places where they had good performances.

If these Parisi voters can be defined as people who “drifted away from the left after getting richer”, why wouldn’t they just vote for Kast or even Sichel instead of feeling like doing a protest vote? What’s the hesitation? Sounds to me they don’t really identify much with conservatives although they still didn’t want to vote for the left (talking about Parisi voters). And those reasons and more self-criticism are worth exploring. WHY people drifted away from the left and from politics as a whole in a general way?

Obviously immigration is only one single issue, but it exemplifies the cultural disconnect that can now exist between the discourse from big city progressives and the existing demands from people in other places.

[Logical]

94,83% polls counted

Kast 27,97%
Boric 25,70%

Parisi 12,93%
Sichel 12,65%
Provoste 11,69%
MEO 7,60%
Artes 1,46%

[H. Ross Peron]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

[Lumine]

Well, that was a wild ride, and very paradoxical in many aspects. We'll be rethinking the results of the election for quite a long time.

Sad to see Sichel didn't have a surge and still stunned both at the PDG and the Senate results in particular. The congressional race I was involved with was lost, but I don't feel despair over it.

Null vote on the runoff, here we go.

[PSOL]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

Good, associating with the upscale left in Chile most likely caused a depressing effect on PC. Boric’s awful campaigning depressed the entire working class to lead to this.

The upscale left and the useful idiots in the PC ruined a once in a lifetime opportunity by doing the same mistakes as what was done in 1968 France, abort the revolution led by their own union in hopes that electoralism would help their @$$es. Unlike then, there was no overarching Soviet Union that made them do it and—most importantly—Jadue could have won this election had he been more aggressive and gone for owning the rich instead of kowtowing towards the unpopular front/diet electoralism nonsense.

[MRCVzla]

Congress final composition:
Chile Podemos Más: 53 (RN 25, UDI 23, Evopoli 4, PRID 1)
Apruebo Dignidad: 37 (PC 12, CS 9, RD 8, Comunes 6, FRVS 2)
Nuevo Pacto Social: 37 (PS 13, DC 8, PPD 7, PR 4, PL 4, Ciudadanos 1)
Frente Social Cristiano: 15 (PREP 14, PCC 1)
Partido de la Gente: 6
Dignidad Ahora: 3 (PH)
Partido Ecologista Verde: 2
Independientes Unidos: 1 (Centro Unido)
Independiente: 1 (Carlos Bianchi)

Left-wing and Center-left combined: 79
Right-wing combined: 68
Others (Centrists/Right-wing populists and Independent): 8

Senate (seats to renovate)
Chile Podemos Más: 12 (RN 5, UDI 5, Evopoli 2)
Nuevo Pacto Social: 8 (PS 4, DC 2, PPD 2)
Apruebo Dignidad: 4 (FRVS 2, PC 2)
Frente Social Cristiano: 1 (PREP)
Independientes: 2 (Fabiola Campillai and Karim Bianchi)

Senate full composition
Right-wing: 25 (RN 12, UDI 9, Evopoli 3, PREP 1)
Centre-left: 18 (PS 7, PPD 6, DC 5)
Left-wing: 5 (FRVS 2, PC 2, RD 1)
Independents: 2 (Campillai > lean left-wing, Bianchi > lean centre-left)

Left/centre-left majority at the Chamber, but hung Senate (tied 25-25).

Additional notes:

PDG elected in Antofagasta (D3), Coquimbo (D5), Valparaíso Cordillera (D6), Maipú (D8) and the two Biobío districts (D20 and D21).
All PH seats are concentrated in D12 (La Florida-Puente Alto) due to Pamela Jiles' strong preference votes.
PEV' new seat are in D8, leader Félix González was reelected in Biobío Costa (D20).
Centro Unido-independent seat are in Maule Norte (D17).
The Magallanic Bianchi's are going to switch chambers, Carlos is until now Senator while Karim is a Congressman (elected in 2017 as a PR-independent).