Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

How would be Lavin performing if he had won primaries?

I don't think that it would be doing better than Sichel. Lavín isn't as bad as Sichel debating, but he would had the exact same problem of perceived excessive moderation (socialdemocrat, a government neither left nor right). He would have a much better relationship with Chile Podemos + parties but the UDI label would drag him down. I think it would be a wash electorally, but I think Lumine could answer this question better.

[Mike88]

Polling seems to be all over the place: Boric falling or growing; Sichel growing or stagnant; Parisi closing on Boric or stagnant; Kast falling or stagnant; and MEO closing in on Provoste.

My hunch is that they may be all wrong. (And Chilean polls have quite a bad rep).

[kaoras]

Leaked Criteria

All voters:

Kast 25 (+2)
Boric 24 (+1)
Parisi 12 (+4)
Provoste 10 (+1)
Sichel 10 (+2)
MEO 5 (-1)
Artes 2

Likely Voters

Boric 33
Kast 28
Parisi 12
Provoste 10
Sichel 9
MEO 4
Artes 3

[Sadader]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

[Velasco]

It's all over now

I'll be watching tomorrow and hoping Boric has a better performance than the Pinochet supporter

[kaoras]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

[Mike88]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

I assume that with this uncertainty over the election result, turnout will be crucial. The ongoing divisions on the left, with the Constitutional Assembly problems, could demobilize the leftwing voter base and, at the same time, energize the rightwing base. But, the left could also be motivated to show up to vote in order to block Kast. We'll see.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

Would you mind sharing a link to that discord?

[kaoras]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

Would you mind sharing a link to that discord?

Sadly, I think their public invitation links don't work anymore (https://discord.com/invite/rD7QEhAMqx); (https://discord.com/invite/qPDkg67), and I don't have the option to invite by myself. Try to follow Kennet Bunker on Twitter to see if he shares the link again, he tends to do that ocassionaly.

[Logical]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

Provoste vs Sichel runoff

[kaoras]

Other leaks:

Activa Likely Voters:

Kast 25,7
Boric 21,5
Parisi 15,3
Sichel 13,3
Provoste 11,4
MEO 5,5
Artés 2,3

UDD:

Boric 29
Kast 28
Sichel 12
Parisi 11
Provoste 10
MEO 7
Artés 3

UDD senatorial poll for the metropolitan region.

Apruebo Dignidad 29%
Chile Podemos + 20%
Frente Social Cristiano 15%
Fabiola Campillai 12%
Partido de la gente 8%
Nuevo Pacto Social 5% (lol)
Partido Ecologista Verde 4%
Dignidad Ahora 4%
Independientes Unidos 2%
Unión Patriotica 1%

It would be AD: 2, CP 1, FSC 1, Campillai

[Niemeyerite]

Some questions about today:

- At what time do polls close?
- When will the first results be released?
- Will we know who goes to the runoff today?
- At what time do you expect to have a good picture of the final results?

I spent 6 beautiful months of my life in Santiago, and had the opportunity to travel a lot. I'm in love with Chile and am always thinking about going back... I really enjoyed my time there.

Here's my prediction, btw:

Boric 25%
Kast 24%
Sichel 19%
Provoste 15%
Parisi 10%
Ominami 6%
Artés 1%

[kaoras]

Some questions about today:

- At what time do polls close?
- When will the first results be released?
- Will we know who goes to the runoff today?
- At what time do you expect to have a good picture of the final results?

I spent 6 beautiful months of my life in Santiago, and had the opportunity to travel a lot. I'm in love with Chile and am always thinking about going back... I really enjoyed my time there.

Here's my prediction, btw:

Boric 25%
Kast 24%
Sichel 19%
Provoste 15%
Parisi 10%
Ominami 6%
Artés 1%

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain). The first results should come out at 18:30-19:00. We will know today, because in Chile, statistically, with 2,5% of the vote in, the final result doesn't change meaningfully. So, unless 2 candidates are tied for second place, we will know very early. By 19:30 we should have a clear picture,

Also, I'm very happy to hear that you liked Chile a lot! Which places did you visit?

[kaoras]

Link for following the overseas vote. Boric winning very comfortably in Oceania. Asia is right-wing save for Japan (best results for Artés, lmao, JCP stonks) and South Korea (the government apparently was into something with the KPOP thing)

https://tresquintos.cl/votoexterior/

[Lumine]

Yes, results will be on fairly quickly. Other than a few races, I would imagine we'll get the full picture tonight including Congress + COREs. Most likely a Nuevo Pacto Social and Chile Podemos Más massacre (one of which will be significantly worse than the other, can't tell which yet), the first supplanted by Apruebo Dignidad, the other losing a ton of seats thanks to vote spitting (with the Frente Social Cristiano performing better than people expect). If I'm wrong then great, but I'm gearing up for a very difficult night on my end.

How would be Lavin performing if he had won primaries?

I don't think that it would be doing better than Sichel. Lavín isn't as bad as Sichel debating, but he would had the exact same problem of perceived excessive moderation (socialdemocrat, a government neither left nor right). He would have a much better relationship with Chile Podemos + parties but the UDI label would drag him down. I think it would be a wash electorally, but I think Lumine could answer this question better.

I think that's a fair assessment, him being UDI would certainly have held back a few (but not many) of the incumbents that jumped ship, but without being able to prevent a significant voter flow to Kast. Still, I'm actually of the opinion he'd be doing a bit better and prove more competitive in the sense that Sichel's campaign team proved too inexperienced and he got the double punch of the debate and the PDC stuff from 2009. Lavin has been far more thoroughly vetted and people are more aware of both his achievements and screw-ups, so it's perfectly possible a Lavin-Kast competition would have been closer in polling and there would be a lot more uncertainty as to who would go to the second round.

I do believe Sichel is a far better second round candidate than Lavin, but, surprise surprise, one has to get into the second round first. That will be an important lesson for people going forward.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

[Red Velvet]

Link for following the overseas vote. Boric winning very comfortably in Oceania. Asia is right-wing save for Japan (best results for Artés, lmao, JCP stonks) and South Korea (the government apparently was into something with the KPOP thing)

https://tresquintos.cl/votoexterior/

As someone who is used to see Japan being the hotbed of conservative voting (alongside US, especially Florida), this is mind-boggling to me lol

[Mike88]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

In my country, the difference is even less, just 3 hours difference. I believe this is because of Daylight saving time, as Chile is now almost in the Summer season and Europe is almost in winter.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

In my country, the difference is even less, just 3 hours difference. I believe this is because of Daylight saving time, as Chile is now almost in the Summer season and Europe is almost in winter.

Ahh, right, I didn't factor in DST. Still, interesting that the timezone distance is so small.

[kaoras]

In a devastating blow for the right, Boric won the United Arab Emirates with 16 votes, 15 Kast, 12 Sichel and 1 Parisi.

[jaichind]

Standard questions of
a) when do polls close
b) any link to media live streams for exit polls
c) link of results

[kaoras]

Standard questions of
a) when do polls close
b) any link to media live streams for exit polls
c) link of results

18:00 local time, in about 6 hours.
Chile doesn't do exit polls because polling in this country sucks, you can always watch the live counting of votes

Official result page is https://www.servelelecciones.cl/ , the better page though, is www.decidechile.cl

When I go back home I can give you links to live streams. But you can search CNN Chile on YouTube, or Canal 13, TVN, Mega, etc.

[Logical]

Any report/indications on turnout?

[kaoras]

Any report/indications on turnout?

There are very long queues everywhere but it could be COVID protocols and general SERVEL incompetence. But even considering that, it seems that turnout could go up significantly

[PSOL]

This is going to be a mess with a loooot of contestion. Everyone will be up against everyone’s throats for weeks just like in Peru.