Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

UDI used images of the coup and the bombing of La Moneda for their terror campaign in their parliamentary franja. Classy

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

UDI used images of the coup and the bombing of La Moneda for their terror campaign in their parliamentary franja. Classy

One of the worst major parties in the democratic world.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also notable how Kast’s franja was very anti-cancel culture/right-wing grievance politics. Seemed almost devoid of content beyond “say what you really think [about Pinochet or the gays or whatever]”. I would have expected at least something about the estallido or immigration or his general campaign themes, but I guess they’re all subordinate to the “Atrévete” message - banking hard on “shy Kast voters” I suppose.

[kaoras]

Also notable how Kast’s franja was very anti-cancel culture/right-wing grievance politics. Seemed almost devoid of content beyond “say what you really think [about Pinochet or the gays or whatever]”. I would have expected at least something about the estallido or immigration or his general campaign themes, but I guess they’re all subordinate to the “Atrévete” message - banking hard on “shy Kast voters” I suppose.

Kast is trying (successfully IMO) to moderate his image and to present himself as someone "nice" which is why he is recurring to more subtle dog whistles such as "rebelate" (against the left). His radio ads are similar though a little more overt on what they are doing (I don't remember the exact wording though)

Kast also seems to understand to a certain extent that the terror campaign of Chile Podemos + and the government is way too hysterical and needs to be dialed back a little to be effective. He criticized the government for blaming the violence of the 18 de Octubre on Provoste and Boric for example.

From what I can tell he has been successful at mobilizing disenchanted right wing voters that had stopped supporting Chile Podemos+ and could have been lost to abstention, but I've yet to see him attrackting anyone that was not traditionally right wing to begin with.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was watching the ad compilation and I was wondering why Mario's ads felt so high quality. Then I learned that he was a filmmaker involved in the television in the past.
It all makes sense now.

[kaoras]

I was watching the ad compilation and I was wondering why Mario's ads felt so high quality. Then I learned that he was a filmmaker involved in the television in the past.
It all makes sense now.

Ah, Ominami, yeah, but it's the fourth time doing the same thing, it loses the charm

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was watching the ad compilation and I was wondering why Mario's ads felt so high quality. Then I learned that he was a filmmaker involved in the television in the past.
It all makes sense now.

Ah, Ominami, yeah, but it's the fourth time doing the same thing, it loses the charm

I guess that was my first time seeing the ads, so it would make sense I'd be very impressed.

[kaoras]

Two new polls, and Kast is in full surge right now.

CADEM:

Kast 23 (+2)
Boric 20 (=)
Provoste 12 (=)
Sichel 7 (=)
Parisis 6 (=)
Ominami 5 (+1)
Artés 1 (-2)

Tankies for Kast?

Internal poll for Boric campaign, from Criteria (Likely Voters):

Boric 30,8%
Kast 27,7%
Provoste 10,9%
Sichel 8,1%
Parisi 7,7%
Ominami 3,5%
Artés 2%.

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is there parliamentary polling?

[Lumine]

Is there parliamentary polling?

There was a single poll months ago, but it was meaningless then and even more so now. Cadem (I know, not reliable) delivered a detailed study on the highly competitive Senatorial race for Santiago a month ago, and that was a lifetime ago. Still:

Chile Podemos +: 30,3%
Apruebo Dignidad: 25,6%
Frente Social Cristiano: 13,1%
Nuevo Pacto Social: 6,9%
Partido de la Gente: 3,4%
Partido Ecologista Verde: 3,0%
Centro Unido: 2,6%
Dignidad Ahora: 1,1%
Unión Patriótica: 0,4%

The right + center right is getting more than 45% in that poll, which isn't happening even on our wildest dreams, but there is a chance we do overperform a bit in the Senate because the lists are relatively strong. Apruebo Dignidad should also expect excellent results all around, because they have momentum and strong candidates, and because Nuevo Pacto Social (or "I can't believe it's not the Concertación MK3") has some really weak candidates.

It's becoming increasingly hard to venture any predictions because we have no idea what kind of turnout we'll see and what kind of voters will show up, and we'll be going blind with no polls released after November 6th. But if I had to venture a guess, the combined right recedes back to less than a third of Congress (but not quite as dismal as the Constituent Assembly), Apruebo Dignidad gains the congressional plurality (but not nearly close to a majority), Nuevo Pacto Social loses a ton of seats, and a handful of minor party/independent candidates will get through (like ex-LDP supporter Fabiola Campillai as a Senator for Santiago).

[Lumine]

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

It does seem the case that a substantial amount of left-wing voters are just not comfortable with him, but I wouldn't worry about them not falling in line by the time we get into the second round (they may not vote on the first though, which will hurt the left downballot). If anything, I'd be more worried about Boric losing the less ideological voters via self-inflicted wounds, like his sudden lack of message discipline after managing to stay above the fray for quite a while.

All he needs to do is be quiet, try to look presidential and not do something stupid, and he should sail into an easy victory. It would be quite something if he botched it up with this political climate.

Having said all that, I do think Kast has successfully increased his ceiling, even if he's still far ahead from where he would need to be in order to have a chance. At least anecdotally, I have heard of non-ideological people finding him more appealing this time (more "presidential" by comparison to some of the other candidates, if that makes sense) or being willing to settle for him in light of the options.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Two new polls, and Kast is in full surge right now.

CADEM:

Kast 23 (+2)
Boric 20 (=)
Provoste 12 (=)
Sichel 7 (=)
Parisis 6 (=)
Ominami 5 (+1)
Artés 1 (-2)

Tankies for Kast?

Internal poll for Boric campaign, from Criteria (Likely Voters):

Boric 30,8%
Kast 27,7%
Provoste 10,9%
Sichel 8,1%
Parisi 7,7%
Ominami 3,5%
Artés 2%.

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

Turns out that a campaign consisting of shouting "he's a fascist! His father was a NAZI!" isn't all that convincing outside of a public university student union

JAK winning still doesn't seem likely yet but it would really be fitting for him to trip through the door thanks to the complete incompetence of everyone else.

Sichel barely needs explanation, but he and ilk absolutely deserve a single digit smashing. Provoste hardly deserves much better. The Chilean elites combine the arrogance and emphasis on optics over action of those in Washington DC with all the greed and corruption of the worst caudillo. They inherited a (relatively) safe and prosperous country without ever having to justify their own positions or to seriously consider how to handle the problems they still had without breaking what worked. So instead they put their own enrichment above all else and called anyone who went against them Communist terrorists, so naturally they're currently getting blown out by actual socialists. They're incapable of actually considering any opposition on its own terms to accept it or refute it because they don't actually have any kind of ethos or ideology behind their actions, besides the occasional attempt to mindlessly copy the US or Europe. So all they can do is throw out smears that look increasingly ridiculous even to their own supporters, thereby destroying their own legitimacy.

But then Boric is seemingly making the exact same mistake, thinking he can substitute a strong positive vision with smears of his strongest opposition. I'm no expert on Kast's past but he whatever he may secretly believe his supporters are popping up all over the place because he has a message that's actually relevant to Chileans today. Not the problems of people in 1942, or 1973, or 1989, but of 2021. When Sichel was his opponent he did it easily enough, but of course all he had to do was call him a corrupt snake and Sichel would dutifully hiss and show off his loot. Now that he can't just rely on the obvious corruption of the government he can either put forward a convincing positive vision or fight what Kast is actually saying as opposed to hyperbolic comparisons to past monsters. The Chilean radical left has built up enough public goodwill in the past few years that he would win either way. He could even just shut up, stop shooting himself in the foot now that he's the clear frontrunner and glide into the presidency inoffensively.

Whereas falling back on "he's ADOLF PINOCHET" with an electorate that's had the part of the brain responsible for outrage burnt out through decades of hyperbole about Communist terrorists is probably the single best way to get President Kast.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I mean, there’s also the fact that Kast doesn’t believe in vaccine mandates but does believe in “detaining radical agitators” (aka any protesters). It’s not a secret belief of his or something dug up from the past, it’s his current platform.

[kaoras]

Two new polls, and Kast is in full surge right now.

CADEM:

Kast 23 (+2)
Boric 20 (=)
Provoste 12 (=)
Sichel 7 (=)
Parisis 6 (=)
Ominami 5 (+1)
Artés 1 (-2)

Tankies for Kast?

Internal poll for Boric campaign, from Criteria (Likely Voters):

Boric 30,8%
Kast 27,7%
Provoste 10,9%
Sichel 8,1%
Parisi 7,7%
Ominami 3,5%
Artés 2%.

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

Turns out that a campaign consisting of shouting "he's a fascist! His father was a NAZI!" isn't all that convincing outside of a public university student union

JAK winning still doesn't seem likely yet but it would really be fitting for him to trip through the door thanks to the complete incompetence of everyone else.

Sichel barely needs explanation, but he and ilk absolutely deserve a single digit smashing. Provoste hardly deserves much better. The Chilean elites combine the arrogance and emphasis on optics over action of those in Washington DC with all the greed and corruption of the worst caudillo. They inherited a (relatively) safe and prosperous country without ever having to justify their own positions or to seriously consider how to handle the problems they still had without breaking what worked. So instead they put their own enrichment above all else and called anyone who went against them Communist terrorists, so naturally they're currently getting blown out by actual socialists. They're incapable of actually considering any opposition on its own terms to accept it or refute it because they don't actually have any kind of ethos or ideology behind their actions, besides the occasional attempt to mindlessly copy the US or Europe. So all they can do is throw out smears that look increasingly ridiculous even to their own supporters, thereby destroying their own legitimacy.

But then Boric is seemingly making the exact same mistake, thinking he can substitute a strong positive vision with smears of his strongest opposition. I'm no expert on Kast's past but he whatever he may secretly believe his supporters are popping up all over the place because he has a message that's actually relevant to Chileans today. Not the problems of people in 1942, or 1973, or 1989, but of 2021. When Sichel was his opponent he did it easily enough, but of course all he had to do was call him a corrupt snake and Sichel would dutifully hiss and show off his loot. Now that he can't just rely on the obvious corruption of the government he can either put forward a convincing positive vision or fight what Kast is actually saying as opposed to hyperbolic comparisons to past monsters. The Chilean radical left has built up enough public goodwill in the past few years that he would win either way. He could even just shut up, stop shooting himself in the foot now that he's the clear frontrunner and glide into the presidency inoffensively.

Whereas falling back on "he's ADOLF PINOCHET" with an electorate that's had the part of the brain responsible for outrage burnt out through decades of hyperbole about Communist terrorists is probably the single best way to get President Kast.

Except that Boric hasn't done that? I don't know If you are actually following the campaign or just assuming that the Chilean left is following the Haddad playbook but Boric is all about a positive vision for a new Chile, in Unity, and advancing together towards the future under rainbows.

Some analyst even said that Kast is surging precisely because "fear is stronger than hope"

If anything, I would say that Boric NEEDS to do more negative campaign and show everyone about all the authoritarian insanities of Kast. I don't recall him attacking Kast at all outside the debates.

Your description of the Chilean Elite is good but the Chile that Pinochet left couldn't be described as "prosperous" by any definition of the word, the poverty rate was 70% (using the current methodology), real wages recovered 1973 levels in 1996... The "prosperity" started in the 90's, the dictatorship economic "prosperity" is a myth

[kaoras]

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

It does seem the case that a substantial amount of left-wing voters are just not comfortable with him, but I wouldn't worry about them not falling in line by the time we get into the second round (they may not vote on the first though, which will hurt the left downballot). If anything, I'd be more worried about Boric losing the less ideological voters via self-inflicted wounds, like his sudden lack of message discipline after managing to stay above the fray for quite a while.

All he needs to do is be quiet, try to look presidential and not do something stupid, and he should sail into an easy victory. It would be quite something if he botched it up with this political climate.

Having said all that, I do think Kast has successfully increased his ceiling, even if he's still far ahead from where he would need to be in order to have a chance. At least anecdotally, I have heard of non-ideological people finding him more appealing this time (more "presidential" by comparison to some of the other candidates, if that makes sense) or being willing to settle for him in light of the options.

What I have seen is Boric is actually doing better among not that ideological but progressive voters while struggling with more militantly left wing people (as in, the people whose usual motivation for voting is to "stop the right")

I'm not really that worried about those people not voting in the first round, but is a problem that Boric has. (I honestly didn't know who the hell were the 20% that is voting for Boric in the polls until I started digging among less ideological people,  since most of my left wing bubble is undecided). I think Artes could randomly appear with like 5% of the vote in election day.

[kaoras]

I mean, there’s also the fact that Kast doesn’t believe in vaccine mandates but does believe in “detaining radical agitators” (aka any protesters). It’s not a secret belief of his or something dug up from the past, it’s his current platform.

And have dictatorial powers to detain people in their homes without congress approval, and investigate and control ONG, and fight against the influence of evil international organizations, and to to weaken legal oversight over government action and be able to recall opposition governors, and...

Honestly, it's obvious that the press isn't going to focus on it like they did it with Jadue because of course not, they are the chilean press. But is insane that the left isn't using this as regular ammo against Kast

[kaoras]

JAJAJAJAJA, Oh god, Sichel is the gift that just keeps on giving.

Today several deputies and senators from Chile Podemos + declared their support for Kast (many of them had been attacked by Sichel for different reasons). The right was also angry with Sichel because of his attacks on Kast and told him to stop doing that since they want to support Kast in the second run and get incorporated in his government if he wins. (did I mention that Sichel is the candidate that attacks Kast the most? I don't know what the hell Boric is doing but his franja is full of his saccharine unity nonsense and Provoste is busy destroying the private pension system in the senate, none of them even talk about Kast unless they are provoked by him)

Sichel responded to this by giving a press conference at prime time, saying he wasn't going to be blackmailed into morphing into a far-right person that isn't tolerant and doesn't believe in liberty and diversity (obviously refering to Kast)

He asked Chile Podemos + parties to give freedom of action to support Kast because he didn't want to be with people that wanted to go back to an old right that wanted to roll back liberties and social rights and supported him only for convenience.  

That was a very good speech though, I think he could make gains in the polls, but maybe I liked it because he epically trashed the right and Kast.

In any case, Chile Podemos +, is, once again, in full disarray.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Part of me imagines that Boric is going easy on Kast for now so he gets into the second round and the left can avoid a Naranjazo-style defeat to Provoste. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but it’s at least an understandable one.

[kaoras]

The democratic, liberal and renewed right™ EVOPOLI announced that they would support Kast in the second round.

Also, some RN deputy said that Sichel was a Trojan Horse sent by the Concertación to destroy the right from within lol. Unfortunately for Sichel, and this is something that always seem to happen with him, despite his speech being good, all the coverage surrounding it is basically "the right in disarray".

Part of me imagines that Boric is going easy on Kast for now so he gets into the second round and the left can avoid a Naranjazo-style defeat to Provoste. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but it’s at least an understandable one.

I think this is also FA line of thinking, and I honestly consider it sickening bearing in mind that Kast is basically threatening to arrest them if he wins. Another reason to not even touch anything FA-related in the first round.

[Estrella]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

[kaoras]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

From the presidents from 1932 onwards onwards:

Arturo Alessandri Palma (1920-1925 and 1932-1938): Better known for first government, he was a reformist and clashed constantly with Congress and the parliamentary oligarchy, who refused to pass his social laws (such as 8 hours workday, legalization of unions, etc.). He is mostly remembered for these laws and the new constitution of 1925, which ended up passing after a military intervention that started the chaotic period of 1925-1932. His second government is mostly remembered for having brought order after that mess and for bringing the military back in line. He was clearly right-wing on this time and has some incidents of bloody repression such as the Masacre de Ranquil (Right-wing traditions have deep roots you see). Overall, positive image.

The Radical Governments (1938-1952) are overall fairly well regarded for their economic policies and social advances.

Pedro Aguirre Cerda (1938-1941): One of the most fondly remembered presidents. Famous for his industrialization and specially pro-education policies ("Gobernar es educar"). I think he was good but he is vastly overrated in popular culture He himself was very critical of his administration and felt that he wasn't able to improve the living conditions of the poor. But his Frente Popular did very well in the municipal and parliamentary elections of 1941, so at the time he was well regarded. Died from cancer.

Juan Antonio Ríos (1941-1946): Mainly positive because of his industrialization policies but he isn't widely discussed. Suffered a lot from the infighting of his coalition Alianza Democratica (successor of the Frente Popular) that was heavily defeated in the 1945 midterms, the last time the Right won a parliamentary majority without centrist parties. Also died early.

Gabriel Gonzalez Videla (1946-1952): The only thing he is remembered for is the infamous "Ley Maldita" (cursed law) that illegalized the Communist Party and the start of the Cold War. I think he is the only radical president that doesn't have a photo in the Radical Party headquarters and is basically the black sheep of the period.

Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931 and 1952-1958). He first ruled the country as a dictator until the great depression and won in 1952 with a populist and antipartisan platform. This is the first government my grandmother remembers and she HATES him. Said it was the worst government she lived under after Pinochet and Piñera, having to do long queues in the countryside to get a little bit of flour. Generally regarded as bad, and the ibañist forces were electorally obliterated by the end of his government.

Jorge Alessandri (1958-1964). Neutral, remembered for the natural disasters, the Mundial de Futbol, and the first antecedents of land reform. Again, not widely discussed, but my grandmother remember his ads about "El pan grande para Chile" (a big bread for Chile), saying that the bread she always had to eat was very small

Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964-1970). Very positive I would say, for his policies of land reform, chilenization of copper minds and people's participation. DC partisan will not stop singing praises for this government and basically say that this is the best government that Chile had. My grandmother say it was "good", though the DC electoral results at the end of the decade show that it didn't quite live to the expectations at the time, but nowadays is fondly remembered.

[buritobr]

Is Gabriel Boric moderate like Michele Bachelet?
I saw he defeated a more leftist candidate in the primary.

[H. Ross Peron]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

From the presidents from 1932 onwards onwards:

Arturo Alessandri Palma (1920-1925 and 1932-1938): Better known for first government, he was a reformist and clashed constantly with Congress and the parliamentary oligarchy, who refused to pass his social laws (such as 8 hours workday, legalization of unions, etc.). He is mostly remembered for these laws and the new constitution of 1925, which ended up passing after a military intervention that started the chaotic period of 1925-1932. His second government is mostly remembered for having brought order after that mess and for bringing the military back in line. He was clearly right-wing on this time and has some incidents of bloody repression such as the Masacre de Ranquil (Right-wing traditions have deep roots you see). Overall, positive image.

The Radical Governments (1938-1952) are overall fairly well regarded for their economic policies and social advances.

Pedro Aguirre Cerda (1938-1941): One of the most fondly remembered presidents. Famous for his industrialization and specially pro-education policies ("Gobernar es educar"). I think he was good but he is vastly overrated in popular culture He himself was very critical of his administration and felt that he wasn't able to improve the living conditions of the poor. But his Frente Popular did very well in the municipal and parliamentary elections of 1941, so at the time he was well regarded. Died from cancer.

Juan Antonio Ríos (1941-1946): Mainly positive because of his industrialization policies but he isn't widely discussed. Suffered a lot from the infighting of his coalition Alianza Democratica (successor of the Frente Popular) that was heavily defeated in the 1945 midterms, the last time the Right won a parliamentary majority without centrist parties. Also died early.

Gabriel Gonzalez Videla (1946-1952): The only thing he is remembered for is the infamous "Ley Maldita" (cursed law) that illegalized the Communist Party and the start of the Cold War. I think he is the only radical president that doesn't have a photo in the Radical Party headquarters and is basically the black sheep of the period.

Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931 and 1952-1958). He first ruled the country as a dictator until the great depression and won in 1952 with a populist and antipartisan platform. This is the first government my grandmother remembers and she HATES him. Said it was the worst government she lived under after Pinochet and Piñera, having to do long queues in the countryside to get a little bit of flour. Generally regarded as bad, and the ibañist forces were electorally obliterated by the end of his government.

Jorge Alessandri (1958-1964). Neutral, remembered for the natural disasters, the Mundial de Futbol, and the first antecedents of land reform. Again, not widely discussed, but my grandmother remember his ads about "El pan grande para Chile" (a big bread for Chile), saying that the bread she always had to eat was very small

Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964-1970). Very positive I would say, for his policies of land reform, chilenization of copper minds and people's participation. DC partisan will not stop singing praises for this government and basically say that this is the best government that Chile had. My grandmother say it was "good", though the DC electoral results at the end of the decade show that it didn't quite live to the expectations at the time, but nowadays is fondly remembered.

It's nice to know your grandmother has such long lasting memories of Chilean history. Is Allende her favourite President?

[kaoras]

Is Gabriel Boric moderate like Michele Bachelet?
I saw he defeated a more leftist candidate in the primary.

Boric is way to the left of Bachelet. There are actually only minor differences between Boric and Jadue platforms, but Boric rhetoric places heavy emphasis on Unity and presents himself as a moderate. He also, unlike Jadue, isn't a scary communist.

[kaoras]

It's nice to know your grandmother has such long lasting memories of Chilean history. Is Allende her favourite President?

Yes, I actually interviewed her about his memories for college, here's a transcript of what she said about Allende.

For me, the best government was Allende. In the Allende government, my children had milk, they had shoes. Although there are people who will never recognize those things, that was the most beautiful time of my life, where I had more possibilities to educate my children, where I had more opportunities to achieve things.

We did not lack anything, we dressed our children well, we did not lack food, we did not lack milk. I don't know why the rich found it bad, I suppose because of their own convenience. When they began to say that there were no things in the stores, those things were hidden by them. Any rightist hoarded things and sold them in their homes at the price they wanted.

Also at that time, my husband studied at INACAP [Technical high education], he got a degree as a construction manager and was studying at the university. But after the coup, he could no longer continue studying, because all those things were Allende's policies to help with the workers' education. But he managed to get his title of construction manager, which was better than being a simple carpenter.