Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Also of course understandable but still very funny to watch Unidad Constituyente blame MEO for splitting the left vote when they’re doing the same thing to Boric and Apruebo Dignidad.

"Fourth time's the charm" - Marco Enriquez-Ominami, apparently.

Though seriously, how much damage can he do to either UC or AP, he's gotten less popular with every election, at the rate he's going he'd get what, 2-3%?

MEO literally buried his party, PRO will lose legal status as it was kicked out of the Unidad Constituyente* list. He should keep his tradition of losing half of his voters since the last elections.

The whole inscription thing at SERVEL has been a total clownfest (as it has become tradition). I will probably update tomorrow when the dust is settled. But there are many twists, betrayals, name changes and more.

[kaoras]

Okay, so in the end we have 9 presidential candidates, equaling the record of 2013. These are:

• Eduardo Artés (UPA): Hard left and anti-revisionist communist. Got 0,5% in 2017
• Diego Ancalao: Ex-DC, Ex-IC, Ex-FRVS, Ex PRI, Ex-PH. Now the Mapuche candidate represents what is left of La Lista del Pueblo (or at least a fraction). Some people are still mad about dumping Cuevas, but he managed to get the signatures at the last minute. This whole mess will make it hard for him to get the anti-Boric left vote.
• Gabrel Boric (Apruebo Dignidad):Left, Probably laughing somewhere at the chaos of LDP and the pitiful turnout of Unidad Constituyente.
• Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO): Centre-Left. His messianic complex was discussed earlier. He said that if in 2 weeks Provoste polls higher than him he will step down. I have no comments to make about this clown.
• Yasna Provoste (Nuevo Pacto Social): Centre-Left. Unidad Constituyente is dead, long live to Nuevo Pacto Social. More details on that later. Might "freeze" his DC militancy.
• Gino Lorenzini (ind): Populism (kinda rightist) He founded el Partido de la Gente, then left after some drama with Parisi. He is not a clown, he is the entire circus. Proposes, among other things, to send 3 children to space each year, give vitaminic supplements according to DNA tests, and so on. In serious danger of being rejected given his past militancy in PDG.
• Franco Parisi (Partido de la Gente): Right Populism. Got 10% in 2013. Since then has veered closed to evangelical groups and some Pinochetist elements, though appears to be pivoting to standard populism this time. Has many scandals.
• Sebastián Sichel (Chile Podemos+): The right that is totally not a continuation of this government. Pivoting hard to the center, leaving space for Jose Antonio Kast
• Jose Antonio Kast (Partido Republicano): Far Right. See above. His parliamentary list could cause trouble to the right.

A random teacher from Magallanes, Sergio Tapia, appeared with the signatures and SERVEL but in the end couldn't register for undisclosed reasons.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's funny the right is running as "Chile Podemos+"

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It's funny the right is running as "Chile Podemos+"

It’s the #branding.

Also Fabiola Campillai is breaking from the Lista del Pueblo and running as an independent for Senate.

[PSOL]

I am going to split my ticket to make my vote count. Go UPA’s Artés/parliamentary Wide Left+.

[kaoras]

I had a huge effort post for the parliamentary lists but it got erased. Here's the abridged version:

There are 12 parliamentary lists:

• Unión Patriotica (UPA): Far Left, Support Artés, Unlikely to gain seats, could get like 1% of the vote.
• Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR): Far left, Trotskysts, well organized in Antofagasta where they have a slight chance at a seat.
• Dignidad Ahora (DA): Left, coalition of Partido Humanista (PH) and Partido Igualdad (PI). They did well in May with 5% of the vote in councilors. Everyone's favourite politician, Pamela Jiles should get reelected, and maybe her husband Pablo Maltes. Other than that, is hard.
• Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV). Left. They did really well in May despite not getting any constituents. Very good results in gubernatorial and councillors, they are attracting protest votes. Should get a seat in their stronghold of Concepción Metro area but they could surprise in other districts.
• Apruebo Dignidad (AD): Left. Frente Amplio (FA) + Partido Comunista (PC) and FRVS. The list supporting Boric, their objective is being the hegemonic force in the left, targeting 35-50 deputies and 4-7 senators.
• Partido Progresista (PRO): Centre Left. Royally screwed by MEO move, alone they have 0 chances at anything. Trash collector service for the rest of the left. One of the casualties was Alejandro Guillier who joined the party a few months ago and will not go to re-election due to his now 0 options.
• Nuevo Pacto Social (NPS): The good old centre-left with a new name after kicking out PRO. DC+PS+PPD+PR+PL+NT. Supporting Yasna Provoste (to much chagrin of half of PS), they aspire to maintain their current representation, the target is 42 deputies and 10 senators. Very weak slate in Metropolitan Region for the senate.
• Partido de la Gente (PDG): Populism. This thing fields an impressive slate (in numbers), the party was a project of Parisi and Lorenzini and his building block was Lorenzini's Pyramid scheme. After a dispute with Lorenzini (who left), Parisi is now in control. How far to the right their populism will go depends on how Parisi does his campaign basically. At first glance they shouldn't get any seats, but who knows if there's a populist surge.
• Independientes Unidos (IU): Right Populism, coalition of the known anti-mask and anti-vaxxer Cristian Contreras/Dr File's Centro Unido (CU) and the RN splinter Partido Nacional Ciudadano. Cristian Contreras was going to run for president but at the last minute decided to run for senator in the Metropolitan Region. Same electoral prospects as PDG, they will hurt each other and the right as a whole.
• Chile Podemos + (CP+): Right. The new name of Chile Vamos, UDI-RN-PRI-EVOPOLI. Supporting Sichel who is totally not the continuity of this goverment. This list has a lot of recycled candidates, relatives of current politicians and an old politics feel in general (even NPS tried to bring some new faces). This could be a recipe for disaster just like the constituent elections. They say they want to keep their current representation, but most think they will be happy with a third in both chambers (very easy in the senate where they need just 4 seats and target 10).
• Nuevo Tiempo (NT): Far Right. Tiny evangelical party, against abortion, gay marriage and everything you expect. Shouldn't get anything, only running for deputies.
• Frente Social Cristiano (FSC): Far Right. Coalition of Kast's Partido Republicano (REP) and Partido Conservador Cristiano (PCC). They have a lot of candidates in the chamber of deputies but in the Senate, they only presented a list in the Metropolitan Region. Could get up to 5 seats. Obviously supporting Jose Antonio Kast Candidacy

None of the candidates supported by La Lista del Pueblo got enough signatures, just Fabiola Campillai who as mentioned above break with them. She has a good shot in the senate for The Metropolitan Region.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I had a huge effort post for the parliamentary lists but it got erased.

Thank you so much for the effort you’ve been putting into this thread all along!

[MRCVzla]

Servel has just barred to run Ancalao (not enough valid signs) and Lorenzini (been affiliated to a party -PDG- in the past).

[kaoras]

Uh boy. Server rejected the candidacies of Gino Lorenzni and Diego Ancalao.

Lorenzini was predictable since the law states that if you want to run as independent you can't be on a political party in the 9 months prior and he was on PDG until last month.

Ancalao isn't a total surprise either since he barely managed enough signatures and there was always the possibility that some of them would get rejected. But oh boy, nobody expected it to happen in a way so spicy. Of his 35k signatures, 23k wen from a notary that hasn't operated since 2018 and whose titular died in February of this year. Servel is taking these antecedents to justice. I can hear Boric laugh from here.

So there are only 7 candidates left.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m gonna need an in-depth documentary series on the Lista del Pueblo after the dust settles, please.

[kaoras]

New poll!

And also, new UDD poll:

Boric 21,8%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 12,9%
Kast 10,7%
Parisi 7,7%
Lorenzini 5,1% (not running)
Ominami 4,1%
Ancalao 1,5% (not running)
Artés 1,4%

Lorenzini voters should go to Parisi. Second round results

Boric 31%-Sichel 30%
Sichel 32,8%-Provoste 27,1%
Boric 31,2%-Provoste 24%

[Boobs]

Countdown to Enriquez-O. dropping out commencing now… Wonder how much of his vote will actually switch to SRA YASNA.

[Mike88]

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

[kaoras]

Countdown to Enriquez-O. dropping out commencing now… Wonder how much of his vote will actually switch to SRA YASNA.

I doubt Ominami is actually going to drop out. In the end it will be hard for him to reach 4% though.

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

Kast voters are very likely to be overrepresented in online panels. Kast at around 10% seems right but it will not go up significantly when undecided make up their minds. He has a hard ceiling of 13-15% of open Pinochetists

[kaoras]

Also, CADEM, yay. After the forced dropouts:

Boric 20%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 13%
Kast 10%
Parisi 7%
Ominami 3%
Artés 1%

[Mike88]

Countdown to Enriquez-O. dropping out commencing now… Wonder how much of his vote will actually switch to SRA YASNA.

I doubt Ominami is actually going to drop out. In the end it will be hard for him to reach 4% though.

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

Kast voters are very likely to be overrepresented in online panels. Kast at around 10% seems right but it will not go up significantly when undecided make up their minds. He has a hard ceiling of 13-15% of open Pinochetists

Right, but the issue is if Provoste continues polling badly and her voters decide to vote tacitly in Boric. That could make Kast surpass her. But, it's still very early. A lot of water will still pass under the bridge.

Ominami seems like a very vain politician, with an ego the size of Jupiter.

Also, CADEM, yay. After the forced dropouts:

Boric 20%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 13%
Kast 10%
Parisi 7%
Ominami 3%
Artés 1%

Basically identical results compared with the UDD poll.

[kaoras]

Right, but the issue is if Provoste continues polling badly and her voters decide to vote tacitly in Boric. That could make Kast surpass her. But, it's still very early. A lot of water will still pass under the bridge.

Ominami seems like a very vain politician, with an ego the size of Jupiter.

Ominami seems to think he is destinied to be the Messiah of the left, yes. One of the worst politician out there and I'm glad I didn't fell for his performative Bacheletism in 2017.

About Provoste, it was already shocking for them for Kast to beat Goic in 2017, now it would be even worse. A possible silver lining for her is that NPS voters (what is left of them anyway), old and poor, are very likely to be undercounted in online panels. Some online polls don't even count the E segment which is the strongest for the traditional centre-left.

BTW, the campaign has been very boring outside the drama of the inscriptions /LDP. The only remarkable thing is Sichel showing the right true colours saying "you can't use the excuse of human rights to not keep public order". But outside some leftist outrage, it doesn't even matter because the rightist voters have shown time and time that they only care about human rights in Cuba and Venezuela.

[Mike88]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

[kaoras]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

[H. Ross Peron]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

Im guessing the right is also very unpopular with youths? Are there any age differences between mainstream conservatives and Kast supporters?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Guillier (along with many other members) has quit PRO over anger at ME-O and endorsed Provoste lol.

[kaoras]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

Im guessing the right is also very unpopular with youths? Are there any age differences between mainstream conservatives and Kast supporters?

Data for the constituent elections:

18-29:
Apruebo Dignidad 21%
Lista del Pueblo 20%
Vamos x Chile (now CP+): 13%
Lista del Apruebo (now NPS): 11%
Ind. No Neutrales: 8%

30-49: registered AFTER automatic enrollment.
Apruebo Dignidad 19%
Lista del Pueblo 17%
Vamos x Chile: 15%
Lista del Apruebo: 13%

30-49: registered BEFORE automatic enrollment
Vamos x Chile: 25%
Apruebo Dignidad: 18%
Lista del Apruebo:15%
Lista del Pueblo: 11%

50-70
Vamos x Chile: 21%
Apruebo Dignidad 18%
Lista del Apruebo: 18%
Lista del Pueblo: 11%

70+:
Vamos x Chile: 35%
Lista del Apruebo: 22%
Apruebo Dignidad: 14%
Ind. No Neutrales: 9%
Lista del Pueblo: 6%

For the presidential primaries:



Yes, the right is doing very badly with younger voters. I have not seen data for other elections so is hard to get a sense if there's a meaningful difference between Kast voters and the rest of the right.

[Boobs]

Activa/Pulso Ciudadano poll

Boric - 30.2% (+9%)
Sichel - 18.0% (-16%)
Provoste - 15.9% (+4%)
Kast - 11.5%
Parisi - 11.3%

Lorenzini - 5.7%
Enríquez-O. - 4.6%
Artés - 1.5%
Ancalao - 1.4%

Steep drop for Sickle, not sure I believe it at all.

[kaoras]

I have been saying for months that people should not take Activa variations seriusly. The next poll will have a huge Boric collapse/ right surge. It works like clockwork:

Regarding Pulso Ciudadano/Activa:

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

This is just their normal effect on steroids. They are just not a good pollster.

Full results:

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also >decimals