Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Latest primary polls:

Chile Vamos
Activa: Lavín 26,7% ; Sichel 21,6% ; Desbordes 9,4% ; Briones 3,1%
Data Influye: Lavín 38% ; Sichel 38% ; Desbordes 14% ; Briones 10%
Criteria: Lavín 34% ; Sichel 31% ; Desbordes 8% ; Briones 6%
CADEM: Lavín 46% ; Sichel 23% ; Briones 11% ; Desbordes 10%

Apruebo Dignidad
Activa: Jadue 44,7% ; Boric 27,6%
Data Influye: Jadue 54% ; Boric 46%
Criteria: Jadue 56% ; Boric 22%
CADEM: Jaude 54% ; Boric 40%

In Chile Vamos Lavín is slightly ahead but Sichel is quickly catching up (The Cadem poll is older). I honestly think that Sichel might win. He is simultaneously seen as more right wing but is still selling his "independence". There could be a lot of ammo against him (Being basically a lab project of LyD, his past in the New Majority) but Desbordes is the only one attacking him. Lavin is more busy attacking Jadue.

In Apruebo Dignidad, Jadue is either miles ahead or Boric is putting a decent fight. I think that Jadue is going to win comfortably on a more traditional leftist coalition while Boric pulls the educated leftist vote.

[kaoras]

First two days of Franja Electoral:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_y3nV8RPS4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwefc9MmgZY

I haven't been able to bring myself to watch the cringefest of the right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is electability factoring into the calculations of PC-FA voters and/or bigwigs in any way?

[kaoras]

Is electability factoring into the calculations of PC-FA voters and/or bigwigs in any way?

Not really. The right having been beated so badly doesn't put much sense of urgency into it, but in the first round I see it being one of the battlecries of Provoste.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Constitutional convention is supposed to start today. It was pushed back from this morning by protesters who interrupted the national anthem to demand pardons for those imprisoned during the estallido social, originally to noon but it still hasn’t officially gotten underway - many constituyentes refused to start until they could be assured that the police wouldn’t repress demonstrators.

Update: just announced that the constituyentes have all agreed and it’s starting in five minutes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Convention is starting now but they have to wait for a few members who were injured during protests today to arrive. I’m watching it on convencion.tv.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The ceremony is being conducted by TRICEL (national electoral tribunal) secretary Carmen Gloria Valladares, who I think is doing a very good job of running the show while still allowing celebrations and chanting as necessary. (seems like the constituyentes agree, since she just got a standing ovation.)

The election of the convention president is just beginning; the constituyentes are taking out pink envelopes Oprah-style. Shoutout to Francisca Linconao.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

They’re putting the envelopes in a chalice. Hell yes, I live for this sh**t.

[kaoras]

I'm not really sure how the voting system works. Many rounds until someone gets 78? Is not clear.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm not really sure how the voting system works. Many rounds until someone gets 78? Is not clear.

I wasn’t paying too much attention when Valladares was explaining it but I think that’s basically it?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Main candidates for the presidency so far seem to be Elisa Loncón (Mapuche, supported by her people and the FA), Isabel Godoy (Colla, supported by the non-Mapuche indigenous peoples), Patricia Politzer (Independientes No Neutrales), and Harry Jurgensen (RN, lol).

[kaoras]

Main candidates for the presidency so far seem to be Elisa Loncón (Mapuche, supported by her people and the FA), Isabel Godoy (Colla, supported by the non-Mapuche indigenous peoples), Patricia Politzer (Independientes No Neutrales), and Harry Jurgensen (RN, lol).

Yeah, the right put Jurgensen as a testimonial candidate. Elisa Loncón seem to be leading so far. Haven't been paying attention to how the ex-concertación is voting, but I heard some PS voting Loncón too.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Main candidates for the presidency so far seem to be Elisa Loncón (Mapuche, supported by her people and the FA), Isabel Godoy (Colla, supported by the non-Mapuche indigenous peoples), Patricia Politzer (Independientes No Neutrales), and Harry Jurgensen (RN, lol).

Yeah, the right put Jurgensen as a testimonial candidate. Elisa Loncón seem to be leading so far. Haven't been paying attention to how the ex-concertación is voting, but I heard some PS voting Loncón too.

At this point Politzer seems like a testimonial candidate too, tbh, but looks like she still has a chance.

[kaoras]

PS is definitely voting Lincon, as some other members of Lista del Apruebo. Most of PC voting Isabel Godoy. Godoy has received some votes from some Mapuche and Lincon from some non-mapuche indigenous.

Edit:

So far is: Loncón 45, Jurgensen 29, Gody 29, Politzer 16, Dorador 2, Llanquileo 1.

Not enough votes left for Lincón to win in the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Jurgensen ends up 1 vote ahead of Godoy, it looks like. Loncón will likely be president. Wonder how a Loncón-Godoy second round would have gone.

(or is the second round a top three thing or what)

[kaoras]

Jurgensen ends up 1 vote ahead of Godoy, it looks like. Loncón will likely be president. Wonder how a Loncón-Godoy second round would have gone.

I think they vote from 0 again, no one is eliminated. Also, Chile Vamos has 37 votes, so someone didn't vote for Jurgensen.

Full first round result: Loncón 58, Jürgensen 36, Godoy 35, Politzer 20, Dorado 3, others 3.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Jurgensen ends up 1 vote ahead of Godoy, it looks like. Loncón will likely be president. Wonder how a Loncón-Godoy second round would have gone.

I think they vote from 0 again, no one is eliminated. Also, Chile Vamos has 37 votes, so someone didn't vote for Jurgensen.

Full first round result: Loncón 58, Jürgensen 36, Godoy 35, Politzer 20, Dorado 3, others 3.

Oh, Lord. At some point they’ll have to stop using the big chalice even though I love it so much.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cheers for the news that catering will be provided after the second round.

[kaoras]

Cheers for the news that catering will be provided after the second round.

Also they are done with calling one by one to vote. Now they just put the ballot in the chalice

Edit: Godoy seems to have dropped out in favor of Loncón. Many on the right are voting Politzer this time but Loncón got this.

[kaoras]

Loncón was elected.

Final results were Loncón 96, Jürgensen 33, Politzer 19, Godoy 5, 2 blank. Now they are going to elect the vicepresident.

[seb_pard]

Great Loncon's speech, how refreshing.


Chile Vamos should've supported Politzer, but according to some sources, they thought that she was ideologically too far from them. They are gonna be irrelevant in the convention, sad but they deserve it.

[kaoras]

Great Loncon's speech, how refreshing.


Chile Vamos should've supported Politzer, but according to some sources, they thought that she was ideologically too far from them. They are gonna be irrelevant in the convention, sad but they deserve it.

Is it though? I'm sure some individual members will work fine in areas such as the political system, decentralization an so on where every list has a very diverse mix of views, but to save this country of destroying itself is absolutely necessary that the right as a bloc doesn't have veto power to block the needed changes. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I go to watch one (1) screening of In The Heights and they’re still working on electing the vice president when I get back?

Anyway Bassa finished just short of 78 votes in the second round. Strong showing from Rodrigo Rojas, famous for protesting with an IV because he has leukemia.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Final results 84 for Bassa and 35 each for Rojas and Pollyanna Rivera, the right wing candidate.

[kaoras]

After another lackluster debate performance on Sunday, Jadue has said that he will not go to any more debates, canceling 2 that were previously scheduled. He also has started to attack Boric very strongly, attacking him on his Achilles heel (his vote in favour of the anti-looting law during the social unrest, widely seen by the left as Piñerist repression). Maybe his internal polling shows Boric in upset territory?

Jadue has been making a lot of mistakes and is not really that good under scrutiny. Personally, I think his candidacy has turned the Communists in a caricature of themselves, getting too high on their own kool-aid and that has been very detrimental to the left as a whole (They were the ones who vetoed PS and threw away the chance of finally burying the Concertación and the DC, which is sad because PS and FA have actually acted as a coalition in the constitutional convention). So him losing the primary would be overall a good thing for the left, even if the right would rejoice until the end of the millennium. I still think Jadue is the favourite but who knows.