Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Rincón is OUT, maybe in favor of Provoste? I don't even know what is happening anymore jajaja.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rincón is OUT, maybe in favor of Provoste? I don't even know what is happening anymore jajaja.

lol lmao

So we’re really gonna have one big opposition primary (minus Jiles) after all?

[PSOL]

So talking with some Chilean travelers has led me to “discover” that the PCCh is a “social democratic” party. Now I’d like to believe with my first impressions that everyone talks with good faith, so what are they talking about exactly? What in official campaign literature or the party platform are they on about?

[Red Velvet]

So talking with some Chilean travelers has led me to “discover” that the PCCh is a “social democratic” party. Now I’d like to believe with my first impressions that everyone talks with good faith, so what are they talking about exactly? What in official campaign literature or the party platform are they on about?

It’s probably social-democratic (center-left) in Latin American terms, which is different than what westerners would expect considering someone like Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders (pretty moderate social-democratic guys to me) are treated as some radical leftists.

Center-left social-democratic to me = Lula (Brazil); Evo Morales (Bolivia); Kirchners (Argentina); Mujica (Uruguay); etc. (Corbyn and Bernie would likely be here too if they were from here)

General ideology = Focus on Income Redistribution; Latin American integration and identity; Not really socialist in practice despite the strong rhetoric: Capitalist and favors private property but flirts with some Marxist-Leninist theories (Socialism of the XXI Century); Often more Internationalist than nationalist and in these days increasingly more socially progressive as well. But that’s not necessarily a general rule and has subtle variations in each place.

They’re probably center-left along the same lines, which naturally will sound radically left-wing to anyone in the right lol. It all depends of the eye of the beholder. Communists would hate them for betraying revolutionary socialism and treating it as something outdated. Right-wingers would see them as a light redesign of communist values in order to fool voters.

[PSOL]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

[kaoras]

So talking with some Chilean travelers has led me to “discover” that the PCCh is a “social democratic” party. Now I’d like to believe with my first impressions that everyone talks with good faith, so what are they talking about exactly? What in official campaign literature or the party platform are they on about?

Well, what do you mean by social democracy? They are in favour of public ownership of natural resources, basic services and want the constitution to establish social use of property. They don't openly call for writing in the constitution that Chile is a socialist country but that would be pragmatism more than anything. You need 2/3 for adding something to the constitution. PC is really pragmatic and usually isn't a fan waving their flag aimlessly for the sake of it (unless is foreign policy...), they always try to achieve real change step by step.

I think their regular platforms are more radical and explicit regarding capitalism but I haven't been able to found them.

[kaoras]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

I wouldn't say that PS is more left-wing than PT. I think they are genuinely social democratic and as I defended many times, Bachelet was the only one who tried (and succeeded to some extent) to enact a left agenda. But PS has a lot of third wayers and scandals and they also aren't particularly radical.

[kaoras]

Okay, now the dust has settled a little bit:

Yasna Provoste said she won't run in any primary, but left the door open to running directly in the first round.

Is basically a certainty that PS, FA, and PC will do a primary together. This may or may not include a common parliamentary list and a common program. No one is sure but Provoste announcement makes it clear that there will be some kind of deal between them (and maybe PPD?, lol)

I think Provoste is almost sure to run if Jadue wins the United Left™ primary, which, I don't think is a bad strategy at all?

We will know the details in a few hours. But one thing is clear: The Concertación is dead, good riddance!

[Red Velvet]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

If the Latin American PT you’re talking about is the Brazilian one, I always saw them as our version of PS. Not necessarily more or less left-wing. There were positive short-term changes but structurally the system was kept because in a democratic system you have to work with tons of different parties to form a majority. Otherwise you do nothing. There are lots of external factors unrelated to the partisan wishes that influence this.

PCC sounds like it’s to the left of both based on the superficial info I read about them. But like kaoras said, if you want to be pragmatic and stay democratic AND relevant you naturally will always somewhat move to the center in practice, even if your campaign rhetoric and internal agenda is more radical.

That’s why I think these Chileans who called it social-democratic would likely say the same about PS and others, or maybe even call them centrists lol

[kaoras]

Okay, now the dust has settled a little bit:

Yasna Provoste said she won't run in any primary, but left the door open to running directly in the first round.

Is basically a certainty that PS, FA, and PC will do a primary together. This may or may not include a common parliamentary list and a common program. No one is sure but Provoste announcement makes it clear that there will be some kind of deal between them (and maybe PPD?, lol)

I think Provoste is almost sure to run if Jadue wins the United Left™ primary, which, I don't think is a bad strategy at all?

We will know the details in a few hours. But one thing is clear: The Concertación is dead, good riddance!

Yeah, about this. Apparently PC and FA didn't want PPD and the Liberal Party, so PS is left alone. What a disaster.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What a failure. All just for it to be Jadue.

[skbl17]

Speaking of Jadue, he's officially the Communist Party's nominee:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1395215145308205056

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

If the Latin American PT you’re talking about is the Brazilian one, I always saw them as our version of PS. Not necessarily more or less left-wing. There were positive short-term changes but structurally the system was kept because in a democratic system you have to work with tons of different parties to form a majority. Otherwise you do nothing. There are lots of external factors unrelated to the partisan wishes that influence this.

PCC sounds like it’s to the left of both based on the superficial info I read about them. But like kaoras said, if you want to be pragmatic and stay democratic AND relevant you naturally will always somewhat move to the center in practice, even if your campaign rhetoric and internal agenda is more radical.

That’s why I think these Chileans who called it social-democratic would likely say the same about PS and others, or maybe even call them centrists lol

How is the PT not left wing?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So *is* there gonna be a DC candidate at all?

[Red Velvet]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

If the Latin American PT you’re talking about is the Brazilian one, I always saw them as our version of PS. Not necessarily more or less left-wing. There were positive short-term changes but structurally the system was kept because in a democratic system you have to work with tons of different parties to form a majority. Otherwise you do nothing. There are lots of external factors unrelated to the partisan wishes that influence this.

PCC sounds like it’s to the left of both based on the superficial info I read about them. But like kaoras said, if you want to be pragmatic and stay democratic AND relevant you naturally will always somewhat move to the center in practice, even if your campaign rhetoric and internal agenda is more radical.

That’s why I think these Chileans who called it social-democratic would likely say the same about PS and others, or maybe even call them centrists lol

How is the PT not left wing?

By working with the neoliberal elites so much for the sake of governance and slowly becoming a neoliberal party that has to be proud of “making the rich richer” in order to justify their appeal to the mainstream media and to the 1%, instead of the people that they are supposed to govern for.

Basically, in the same way every center-left party that focuses on class conciliation between the rich and poor in practice kinda gaslights the working classes into a domesticated friendly co-existence with their natural oppressors. Leading to the elites always being the ones favored while lower classes are supposed to be satisfied with mere crumbles.

That’s the general line that leftists use to criticize center-left parties. They would rather have a socialist government instead of a social-democratic one that promotes class conciliation. But like I said, it always depends on the eye of the beholder because they will always see themselves as the true “center”.

But I think it’s true to some extent. Look at center-left parties in Europe crumbling since they became dominated by soulless technocrats, which coincides with the surge of fascism. That’s why it’s necessary to push things to a more radical left than previously, which is the one proposing change instead of being the status-quo. Otherwise those spaces get occupied by the populist right, which is always a scarecrow to maintain the elites privileges under a more authoritarian government. Europe needs it the most.

This is kinda going off-topic, but Chile is interestingly enough, the most successful case of where this left-wing anger is the active force promoting change. Which is why it’s one of the few countries in the world giving me hope for the future. I think the Latin American right is so much more incompetent and horribly evil than their western counterparts that a return of the left will always be the regular development, as long as these elites keep electing people like Piñera, Fujimori, Uribe and Bolsonaro lol. In Chile you also had all the unresolved Pinochet history to add more fuel to that fire. Greedy elites never understand that the more you humiliate the underprivileged, the more likely is for them to revolt in a strong manner.

Europe will stay with the far-right for longer, I suspect. They completely dominate the anti-establishment rhetoric, it’s the complete opposite of Chile. I think it’s especially likely that they will eventually get France. Which could put the EU and as consequence, global neoliberalism, in quite a dilemma. It will be an interesting country to follow.

US, I have no idea tbh. On one hand, I see a very energized left but they’re not necessarily a majority. Although they have been kinda successful in pushing the center of discussion to their side and creating a populist counterpoint to Trumpism, they face the biggest obstacles as their country is the biggest global representative of crony neoliberal capitalism, which is also probably why this younger generation has a higher motivation energy. Centrist democratic establishment will likely push them to compromise on little achievements, so it all depends on their will to fight and complain I guess.

[kaoras]

So *is* there gonna be a DC candidate at all?

Probably Provoste later in the year

[kaoras]

Poll for the Metropolitan Region Gubernatorial election

Karina Oliva (FA): 32,5%
Cluadio Orrego (DC): 21,7%

Likely Voters:

Karina Oliva: 49,5%
Claudio Orrego: 29,3%

Oliva would get 60% of left-wingers (Orrego barely 23), Orrego just 44,7% of right-wingers. The left is also much more likely to vote (79%) than the right (49%)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Will the governor runoffs have an effect on the FA-PC primary?

[seb_pard]

Very unlikely, particularly as Comunes (Oliva's party) is the FA party that has the best relationship with the Communist Party.

Edit: Well, actually, her victory could strengthen the alliance, but the election outcome will not affect the balance between Jadue and Boric.

[kaoras]

Will the governor runoffs have an effect on the FA-PC primary?

Is more likely to influence Unidad Constituyente. In theory both PS and DC support Orrego, but if Orrego is defeated PS will be less likely to withdraw Narváez candidacy in favor of Provoste, and make a "conventional" primary more likely.

[kaoras]

Some political updates:

New presidential polls have come out after all of the drama. Jadue and Lavin still lead and Jiles is dramatically down in favour of Provoste and Sichel. Narvaez still dead in the water (I don't see how she survives until even a conventional primary unless DC does really badly in governors and PS still resists somehow)

PS and the rest of UC are kinda trying to act as if nothing happened but PS blames PC for the veto. Sadly for them, they may have to sink with that ship.

[kaoras]

This is something that I made: Most voted list for constituent elections (Decide Chile has his maps according individual candidate)

Blue: Vamos por Chile
Orange: Lista del Apruebo
Red: Apruebo dignidad
Pink: Lista del Pueblo
Purple: Independientes por una Nueva Constitución/No Neutrales
Light Green: Independent Regional List
Dark Green: Partido Ecologista Verde
Light Blue: Ciudadanos Cristianos
Crimson: Unión Patriotica
 

Quick analysis: You can see Limarí, Petorca and Aconcagua river valleys, some exact provincial divisions like Chiloé and Palena, and authentic relics from the past like Arauco gulf coal basin. Also, have fun spotting the 2 comunas that voted for UPA! (and the Evangelical one)

I'm trying to do a write-up of analysis for each region of the country, but I don't want to start posting them until I finish.

[kaoras]

Next Sunday there is the second round of the gubernatorial elections in 13 regions. I will just give a quick preview since I think predicting them is impossible because of the probable low turnout.

Arica y Parinacota:Enrique Lee (IND-Chile Vamos) will face Jorge Diaz (DC-Unidad Constituyente)
Tarapacá: The right got locked out of this (former?) stronghold. José Miguel Carvajal (Comunes-FA) vs Marco Pérez (DC-UC)
Antogafasta: Ricardo Díaz (Ind_PRO-UC) almost avoided a runoff, but will face Marco Díaz (not related) from RN-Chile Vamos.
Atacama: This leftist stronghold shut out the right at almost all levels. The fight is between Carlos Pezo (ind_DC-UC) vs former Bachelet's intendente Miguel Vargas (ex-PS)
Coquimbo: Another leftist hotbed, it was UC who got locked out. Ecologist party candidate Krist Naranjo vs Marco Sulantay (UDI-Chile Vamos)

Metropolitana de Santiago: The contest in everyone's watch, the right infamously got fourth place here. Former intendente Claudio Orrego (DC-UC) will face Karina Oliva (Comunes-FA). Oliva leads widely in the only poll, but has made a series of blunders in recent days. The right will not endorse anyone, nor the ecologists (third place with 15%). PH candidate and Pamela Jiles husband Pablo Maltés (10%) endorsed Oliva, who controversially accepted the endorsement.

O'Higgins: Good old UC vs Chile Vamos fight. Pablo Silva (PS) vs Eduardo Cornejo (UDI)
Maule: Another Right lockout in the fourth largest and most rural region, Cristina Bravo (DC-UC) vs centrist independent (ex-Ciudadanos) Francisco Pulgar, who is being investigated for rape.
Ñuble: The newest region of the country, Oscar Crisóstomo (PS-UC) vs Jezer Sepúlveda (UDI-Chile Vamos)
Bio Bio: Former Intendente, ex-DC (ind) Rodrigo Díaz will face Flor Weisse (UDI-CV) in the third largest region of the country
Araucanía: In this rightist stronghold Eugenio Tuma (PPD-UC) faces Luciano Rivas (ind-EVOPOLI-Chile Vamos)
Los Ríos:My home region and ironically the one where the right has more chances. María José Gatica (RN) faces former regional councilor Luis Cuvertino (PS)
Los Lagos:Patricio Vallespín (DC-UC) vs Ricardo Kuchel (RN-Chile Vamos)

In the first round, the only regions where leftist candidates didn't win like 60-70% of the vote were Los Ríos and Maule (where ironically the right didn't pass to the runoff), but with turnout low, I don't feel confident in predicting anything.

[kaoras]

Opposition presidential candidates have been campaigning with gubernatorial candidates, and have called to defeat the right everywhere. Daniel Jadue has been campaigning even for DC candidates where they face Chile Vamos.

Chile Vamos gubernatorial candidates have been trying to get as far as possible from Piñera and even the "rightist" label, saying all sort of nonsense such as "My party is the region" and so on. Presidential candidates from CV have also avoided campaigning for them, the exception being Claudio Orrego hilariously enough, who got the support from Lavín, Desbordes and Briones. He also has been saying that his focus is neither left nor right in his delicate balance act.

In more hilarious news, RN senator Francisco Chahuan is calling for the union of Chile Vamos and the ex-Concertación in a new "Confederación de la Democracia" (the DC-Right alliance in 1973 to oppose Allende) to stop the "red tsunami" of the extreme left in all of this year's elections.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Governor runoffs are today!