Could Trump defeat cost GOP the senate?

[Non Swing Voter]

Theory: Trump loses and GOP senators turn their back on his desperate attempts to overturn the results.  Trump being Trump lashes out at the GOP establishment causing a civil war just in time for the 2 Georgia senate seats holding a runoff election.  Trump fanatics don't show up in disgust regarding how Trump was treated unfairly.  Ossoff and Warnock become US senators causing a 50/50 tie.

How likely?

[Ljube]

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals. Without Trump to drive up the Dem turnout both are going to lose.

[RI]

Soft Dems won't turn out for a runoff after The Big Bad has been slayed.

[Crumpets]

I doubt it. Bush's idiocy didn't give us Senator Jim Martin in 2008 despite historically low approval for his administration.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It will hurt Republicans in 2021 about as much as progressive Democrats mad about Clinton's loss hurt Democrats in 2017

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue won't be heading towards a runoff, the fractions aren't there for 50K votes to lower Perdue's lead to 49%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Soft Dems won't turn out for a runoff after The Big Bad has been slayed.

This is my thinking, but what if he refuses to accept his defeat? What if he denounces Perdue and Loeffler for failing to prevent "the counting of fraudulent votes" or some such nonsense, or at the very least implies he'll be staying on to an extent that sensationalist media finds credible?

[Non Swing Voter]

Perdue won't be heading towards a runoff, the fractions aren't there for 50K votes to lower Perdue's lead to 49%

He's at 50% exactly now.  It seems likely to me that it goes to a runoff the way the ballots are trending.

[Roll Roons]

I doubt it. Bush's idiocy didn't give us Senator Jim Martin in 2008 despite historically low approval for his administration.

But at that point, Democrats already had a big majority so they probably didn't feel the need to invest much. Now, the Senate majority is resting on these two runoffs and GA is much more friendly to Democrats than it was in 08.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Perdue won't be heading towards a runoff, the fractions aren't there for 50K votes to lower Perdue's lead to 49%

He's at 50% exactly now.  It seems likely to me that it goes to a runoff the way the ballots are trending.

He's actually just under. It's far more likely than not at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The anxiety of D's were off the charts on Election day, but once again, we wake up to this 278 map, even in 2018, with exception of KS, the Gov races ended the same way 278 map

That's why in 2018, D's won 40 House seats but lost IN, ND, MO Senate elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

I doubt it. Bush's idiocy didn't give us Senator Jim Martin in 2008 despite historically low approval for his administration.

McCain also won GA by more than 5 points with high Dem turnout and in 2008 almost all the high propensity voters in Georgia were Republican .

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I doubt it. Bush's idiocy didn't give us Senator Jim Martin in 2008 despite historically low approval for his administration.

But at that point, Democrats already had a big majority so they probably didn't feel the need to invest much. Now, the Senate majority is resting on these two runoffs and GA is much more friendly to Democrats than it was in 08.

And Bush wasn’t Trump...he didn’t do anything to hurt Republicans’ chances of keeping the seat.

[Inmate Trump]

History suggests both GOP candidates will prevail in a runoff.

Unfortunately, that's the bet I'd make right now.  It's sad, especially for Rev. Warnock, who would make a fantastic senator.

[President Biden Democrat]

Nah, I think the GOP will keep the Senate. This margin will be 51-49, or 52-48, depending if Warnock will win in GA-Special against Loeffler. Ossoff could win but he seems like an underdog to me, right now at least.

[ajc0918]

Will the infrastructure Dems have built with mail ballots help them turn out more voters?

I have to imagine that will help.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Soft Dems won't turn out for a runoff after The Big Bad has been slayed.

The thing about the suburbs is that we always show up to vote...even in runoffs   It's an uphill battle, but not impossible.  I'd say both races start as Lean R, but Osoff and Warnock compliment each other's bases.

[LabourJersey]

Wasn't Collins the Trump-backed guy in the special election?

It wouldn't shock me in the least if he tweeted something that just kneecaps her, like how she's not a real republican or isn't loyal or something. That coupled with her running the worst campaign I've seen could doom her and maybe take Perdue down with her. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I still think this is why the GOP won't acknowledge the election results.  It has nothing to do with the White House and everything to do with keeping the Trump engaged (and not pissed off) before the Georgia runoffs.

[Alben Barkley]

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals. Without Trump to drive up the Dem turnout both are going to lose.

First of all, LOL no they are not "radicals."

Second of all, seems pretty clear that Trump drove up GOP turnout and that much of his base doesn't bother showing up when he's not on the ballot, given the difference between 2018 and 2020. So I would not assume that.

[Inmate Trump]

History suggests both GOP candidates will prevail in a runoff.

Unfortunately, that's the bet I'd make right now.  It's sad, especially for Rev. Warnock, who would make a fantastic senator.

With Trump’s refusal to accept reality and concede, coupled with the GOP’s enabling of a fascist attempting to hold onto power despite a clear election loss, I am now predicting that both Warnock and Ossoff will win the Senate runoffs.

This entire denial of reality is not a good look for Republicans and I’m betting it backfires on them.

[Ljube]

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals. Without Trump to drive up the Dem turnout both are going to lose.

First of all, LOL no they are not "radicals."

Second of all, seems pretty clear that Trump drove up GOP turnout and that much of his base doesn't bother showing up when he's not on the ballot, given the difference between 2018 and 2020. So I would not assume that.

50% of Biden voters actually voted against Trump, not for Biden.

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals compared to moderates Perdue and Loeffler.

[GALeftist]

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals. Without Trump to drive up the Dem turnout both are going to lose.

First of all, LOL no they are not "radicals."

Second of all, seems pretty clear that Trump drove up GOP turnout and that much of his base doesn't bother showing up when he's not on the ballot, given the difference between 2018 and 2020. So I would not assume that.

50% of Biden voters actually voted against Trump, not for Biden.

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals compared to moderates Perdue and Loeffler.

Will you shut up, man?

[Calthrina950]

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals. Without Trump to drive up the Dem turnout both are going to lose.

First of all, LOL no they are not "radicals."

Second of all, seems pretty clear that Trump drove up GOP turnout and that much of his base doesn't bother showing up when he's not on the ballot, given the difference between 2018 and 2020. So I would not assume that.

50% of Biden voters actually voted against Trump, not for Biden.

Ossoff and Warnock are radicals compared to moderates Perdue and Loeffler.

What? Perdue and Loeffler are the radicals, not Ossoff and Warnock. They've bought into Trump's election fraud nonsense, and have made no effort to disassociate themselves from him or to reach out to moderate swing voters who could decide their fate.

[Ferguson97]

History suggests both GOP candidates will prevail in a runoff.

Unfortunately, that's the bet I'd make right now.  It's sad, especially for Rev. Warnock, who would make a fantastic senator.

With Trump’s refusal to accept reality and concede, coupled with the GOP’s enabling of a fascist attempting to hold onto power despite a clear election loss, I am now predicting that both Warnock and Ossoff will win the Senate runoffs.

This entire denial of reality is not a good look for Republicans and I’m betting it backfires on them.

Are you kidding? The GOP base loves this stuff. This will increase Republican turnout.