Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[jaichind]

It seems TPLF ally Oromo Liberation Army is a lot closer to Addis Ababa than TPLF forces.  This is because Addis Ababa is in Oromo region itself.  Due to ENDF shifting to Eastern Amhara to stop TPLF the OLA is now expanding and moving toward  Addis Ababa.  In the meantime, the Amhara militia grows bigger and bigger threatened by the growth of TPLF.  It will not surprise me that soon the Amhara militia will itself become bigger than ENDF.  At some stage in the future, the Addis Ababa regime might just become the regime of Amhara just like at some stage in the Yugoslav Civil War the Yugoslav federal forces and government merely became the arm of Greater Serbia.

[Zinneke]

It seems TPLF ally Oromo Liberation Army is a lot closer to Addis Ababa than TPLF forces.  This is because Addis Ababa is in Oromo region itself.  Due to ENDF shifting to Eastern Amhara to stop TPLF the OLA is now expanding and moving toward  Addis Ababa.  In the meantime, the Amhara militia grows bigger and bigger threatened by the growth of TPLF.  It will not surprise me that soon the Amhara militia will itself become bigger than ENDF.  At some stage in the future, the Addis Ababa regime might just become the regime of Amhara just like at some stage in the Yugoslav Civil War the Yugoslav federal forces and government merely became the arm of Greater Serbia.

It's for sure something to look out for. I would argue though that the ENDF cannot be compared to the JNA because the JNA was a Serb-dominated institution whereas the ENDF has for the past 15 years been a Tigray-dominated institution, hence why it has had its ass handed to it once the Tigrayans left : all the major Tigray cadres have left bar a couple and there are no quality commanders. Quality Amhara ethnic commanders are basically in the regional Amhara special forces. This is more like if Macedonia had hegemony over Yugoslavia for 30 years and over the military for 15 then decided to hold a referendum, secede and slowly undermine and take back a broken Belgrade-centred push for power over them. The ENDF's only advantage is that it has airstrike capability.

Actually Issayas's longevity in Eritrea can also be explained by his handling of civil-military relations. He never bothered to seperate the political sphere from the military even an iota because of this. That was actually the TPLF's initial "mistake" in the authoritarian playbook by creating the EPRDF, that they only somewhat "corrected" in 2005. But then Zenawi seemed genuinely committed to ethnic federalism. Power got to his head though.

I also think the OLA have little interest in territorial integrity if they come to power. They will just care about securing Addis/Finfinne but the rest...don't think they will care that much. Like Serbia though they could "intervene" in places they have sizeable minorities like Amhara. but Tigray, Afar, SOuther peoples...no way they expend resources...

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/24/ethiopia-pm-has-gone-to-wars-frontlines-state-affiliated-media

"Ethiopia’s PM has gone to the battlefront: State-affiliated media"

TPLF-OLA getting close to Debre Sina.  This is the last defensible town before the major city and military node of Debre Birhan.  If Debre Birhan were to fall then the road is open to a joint advance on  Addis Ababa with OLA forces to the West of  Addis Ababa. 

So Abiy Ahmed is either looking to flee the country (unlikely) or wanted to play a role to boost the morale of his troops ahead of the decisive battles of  Debre Sina and possibly Debre Birhan.  One point I have made before, the road between Debre Sina and Debre Birhan is flat and without much foliage.  So if TPLF-OLA were to travel down that road to reach Debre Birhan they will be vulnerable to the ENDF airforce.   The main risk for Abiy Ahmed is that ENDF morale cracks before then if Debre Sina were to fall.  So I assume Abiy Ahmed is motivated to prevent such cracking of morale by being at the front and ensuring that if the battle moves to terrine that plays to ENDF strengths that they are still a fighting force.

[jaichind]

According to

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&ll=12.992238631835509%2C34.923995799999986&z=5

TPLF elements have reached Debre Sina.  If they capture Debre Sina they will have to traverse up a steep hill to reach the open road to Debre Birhan which is the last major city before Addis Ababa.  If the ENDF cannot hold this high ground when TPLF-OLA does not have an airforce that would mean that most likely it is about to crack and the end of the Abiy Ahmed regime will be coming soon.

[PSOL]

So a meeting with Western diplomats and the TPLF was leaked and then restricted. Ethiopia was getting trade deals and were growing close to China, but with that being what made the Biden Administration angry enough to throw their support to the TPLF is so petty.

With this information in mind, both the TPLF and Ahmed are privatizers and butchers, so revolutionary defeatism must be applied to this conflict. Saying this, the overthrow of the Ahmed administration and the different factions wiping one another out could make room for more revolutionary forces to take control and bring about meaningful change to a people’s democracy.

[Zinneke]

Or maybe partition is the long term solution.

[PSOL]

Or maybe partition is the long term solution.

Do we really want another Yugoslavia situation? Where each state just becomes a proxy force for the most powerful bloc on the continent? I don’t think that would help anyone here.

Ethiopia has been a unified country for centuries, why break it up now when the path is a confederation with some people and federation with others.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

According to

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&ll=12.992238631835509%2C34.923995799999986&z=5

TPLF elements have reached Debre Sina.  If they capture Debre Sina they will have to traverse up a steep hill to reach the open road to Debre Birhan which is the last major city before Addis Ababa.  If the ENDF cannot hold this high ground when TPLF-OLA does not have an airforce that would mean that most likely it is about to crack and the end of the Abiy Ahmed regime will be coming soon.

What's the source ?

[Zinneke]

Or maybe partition is the long term solution.

Do we really want another Yugoslavia situation? Where each state just becomes a proxy force for the most powerful bloc on the continent? I don’t think that would help anyone here.

Ethiopia has been a unified country for centuries, why break it up now when the path is a confederation with some people and federation with others.

Abyssinia was an unified empire for centuries where Oromo, Somali, Afari, Tigray (bar 20 years), and the Southern peoples were ruled under an Amharic speaking yoke that created a civic Ethiopian identity in Addis in order to be able to rule after the notion of empire became deeply unfashionable.

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

But anyway, short term what is needed is precisely a more Yugoslav solution in the sense that International Courts should get involved and more stronger international community presence is needed in general. Fat chance now though that Abiy Ahmed has tied his mast to China and thanks to a classic Thucydides trap the US is mildly supporting the TPLF. UN workers are being arrested and nobody is kicking up a fuss.

[Silent Hunter]

For its part, the British foreign ministry is advising its nationals to get out or prepare to shelter in place.

FCDO page

[jaichind]

What's the source ?

I am not sure.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&ll=12.992238631835509%2C34.923995799999986&z=5

is part of a link given in Wikipedia that it uses to create situation maps.  The events mentioned in that google map do seem to correspond to events that other media also report on.  They just put it on a map.

[jaichind]

There does seem to be an  ENDF and local pro-ENDF Afar militia offensive Westward from Mile toward Kombolcha which TPLF captured in late October.  Back in early Nov TPLF-OLA forces did seem to drive Eastward toward Mile to cut supplies from Djibouti to  Addis Ababa.  That offensive failed mostly because of the flat, dry, and desert-like terrain.  Now ENDF is trying to counter-attack and cut the main TLPF force that is attacking Debre Sina from Tigray itself.  Most likely this will fail since the terrain near Kombolcha is much more favorable to TPLF.  In the meantime, Abiy Ahmed seems to be making a big deal of this offensive since he needs all the good news in the media he can get.

[WMS]

Just chiming in to remind people that the Oromo are also rebelling against the Amhara-dominated central government. They can match the Amhara in numbers. In fact that seems to be the current TPLF goal: to link up with the OLA.

The utter moral vacuity of the Eritrean government is amazing: the Amhara were the ones committing genocide against them in the 1970s and 1980s and they went in on their side? Nationalist movement my ass.

[jaichind]

Just chiming in to remind people that the Oromo are also rebelling against the Amhara-dominated central government. They can match the Amhara in numbers. In fact that seems to be the current TPLF goal: to link up with the OLA.

The utter moral vacuity of the Eritrean government is amazing: the Amhara were the ones committing genocide against them in the 1970s and 1980s and they went in on their side? Nationalist movement my ass.

Sure but since the 1970s everyone has been friends with enemies with each other.  Back in the 1970s EPLF and TPLF were close.  EPLF helped TPLF get started and TPLF helped EPLF wipe out its ELF rival before both turned on Derg.  Also while TPLF was the ruling party of Ethiopia before 2018 it was quite hostile toward OLA.

[WMS]

Just chiming in to remind people that the Oromo are also rebelling against the Amhara-dominated central government. They can match the Amhara in numbers. In fact that seems to be the current TPLF goal: to link up with the OLA.

The utter moral vacuity of the Eritrean government is amazing: the Amhara were the ones committing genocide against them in the 1970s and 1980s and they went in on their side? Nationalist movement my ass.

Sure but since the 1970s everyone has been friends with enemies with each other.  Back in the 1970s EPLF and TPLF were close.  EPLF helped TPLF get started and TPLF helped EPLF wipe out its ELF rival before both turned on Derg.  Also while TPLF was the ruling party of Ethiopia before 2018 it was quite hostile toward OLA.

That is all true but one would think a genuinely nationalist Eritrean government would draw the line at aligning with the people who tried to exterminate them.

[PSOL]

Just chiming in to remind people that the Oromo are also rebelling against the Amhara-dominated central government. They can match the Amhara in numbers. In fact that seems to be the current TPLF goal: to link up with the OLA.

The utter moral vacuity of the Eritrean government is amazing: the Amhara were the ones committing genocide against them in the 1970s and 1980s and they went in on their side? Nationalist movement my ass.

Sure but since the 1970s everyone has been friends with enemies with each other.  Back in the 1970s EPLF and TPLF were close.  EPLF helped TPLF get started and TPLF helped EPLF wipe out its ELF rival before both turned on Derg.  Also while TPLF was the ruling party of Ethiopia before 2018 it was quite hostile toward OLA.

That is all true but one would think a genuinely nationalist Eritrean government would draw the line at aligning with the people who tried to exterminate them.

Given that the current most able army to invade Eritrea is the TPLF and friends, I mean it’s clear that they are hedging their bets at survival here on the side weakest to invade.

[jaichind]

"Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics"  -Omar Bradley

That seems to be what is going on with Eritrea.  When TPLF was making rapid progress toward Addis Ababa starting in Oct I was confused on why Eritrea did not launch attacks into Tigray to relieve pressure on ENDF since there will be payback on Eritrea if TPLF were to win a total victory.  A look at the situational map shows why.  It seems that Western Tigray, and its link to pro-TPLF Sudan, is still in the hands of ENDF-Amhara militias.   My conjecture is that Eritrea is focused on its resources on supporting ENDF-Amhara militias controlling Western  Tigray.  With TPLF's attempt to capture Mile having failed the supply lines for ENDF are intact while TPLF is still short of war supplies with no prospect of gaining new sources other than capturing ENDF supplies.  So from a supply point of view time is on ENDF's side ergo TPLF-OLA is rushing to try to win an all-out victory soon.  It seems that Eritrea is making a bet that TPLF's supply problems would mean it would fall short of total victory and that it will prioritize ensuring TPLF's supply problem continue.

[jaichind]

The news last few days seems to be more favorable for ENDF.  It seems they have beaten back the main advance from TPLF toward Debre Birhan (which is being disputed by TPLF) and the ENDF attacks on the flanks of the TPLF advance seem to be making progress (TPLF does seem to admit to some tactical withdraws in these regions.) 

The battle state seems a lot like the early stages of the An Lushan Rebellion against the Tang dynasty of 755-763.  An Lushan who was the military governor of the region now around Beijing sought to drive to the Tang capital of Changan.  The Tang strategy was to hold them off using various defensive barriers while attacking the flanks of the   An Lushan advance.  The Tang correctly figured out that in the long run, An Lushan does not have the resources to fight forever and the best strategy was to try to cut his army advancing on Changan from his now Beijing base. 




The strategy almost worked but political pressure to beat the rebellion early trigged a head-on attack from Changan toward the  An Lushan army advancing on it and its total destruction led to  An Lushan taking Changan resulting in a long war and 8 years before it was beaten.

Most of the ENDF  reverses so far have been resulting from trying to attack TPLF head-on to destroy it leading to its own destruction.  Now it seems to have learned lessons to play the long game, take strong defensive positions to hold back the TPLF offensive, and counter-attack them on the flanks while slowly draining them of supplies. 

The x-factor is OLA which is making its own plans to move on Addis Ababa from the west but the OLA is nowhere as organized and powerful as TPLF.

[jaichind]

In the last few days, ENDF seems to be advancing on all fronts.  In the main TPLF axis of advance, it seems ENDF successfully beat back TPLF's attempt to capture Debre Sina and have driven TPLF back to a position just south of Kombolcha and Dessie.  This means in the TPLF main axis of advance we are back to the position of early Nov 2021.  On the flanks of the TPLF advance, the ENDF is re-taking towns TPLF captured in August.

It seems while TPLF is stronger tactically the ENDF has, for now, made superior strategic choices.  After retaking Mekelle and driving ENDF out of Eastern Tigray the TPLF could have focused on

a) recapturing Western Tigary to open supply routes to Sudan
b) capturing Mile to cut Addis Ababa from the port of Djibouti
c) drive toward Addis Ababa via Debre Birhan

Choices a) and b) are about fighting a long war and choice c) is about fighting a short war.  Now that TPLF choose c) and failed to drive to Debre Birhan this is turning into a long war and not choosing a) or b) is going to hurt TPLF.

Over the next few days, ENDF might be in a position to recapture Kombolcha and Dessie.  Whether they can do so really depends on how much war supplies TPLF still has and how organized ENDF has become.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty suremost Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

Most Spaniards don't want Catalan or Basque secession either, but if a majority in either of those two regions wanted to secede then you can easily argue it's the most democratic solution to let them. It all depends what demos you focus on. The one in the entire state or the ones in various subdivisions of it (regional, ethnic, religious etc.). 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Most Spaniards don't want Catalan or Basque secession either, but if a majority in either of those two regions wanted to secede then you can easily argue it's the most democratic solution to let them. It all depends what demos you focus on. The one in the entire state or the ones in various subdivisions of it (regional, ethnic, religious etc.). 

Not even Tigrayans want to secede from Ethiopia so what is this tangent based on?

[Zinneke]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

How is that relevant. Austria-Hungary was also relatively united. And I don't think being under an Amharic woke constitutes being "united".

South Sudan was partitioned from Sudan for similar reasons. Eventually keeping these states alive is a security threat in itself.

Most Spaniards don't want Catalan or Basque secession either, but if a majority in either of those two regions wanted to secede then you can easily argue it's the most democratic solution to let them. It all depends what demos you focus on. The one in the entire state or the ones in various subdivisions of it (regional, ethnic, religious etc.).  

Not even Tigrayans want to secede from Ethiopia so what is this tangent based on?

Source? Most experts are in agreement that Tigray is the one region of Ethiopia you can find the popular will and the TPLF's action are correlated almost 1 to 1 and is the most intent on full seperatism...and that's from people like International Crisis Group who tend to be sympathetic to the soppy idea of a united Ethiopia.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b171-ethiopias-tigray-war-deadly-dangerous-stalemate

Please, distance yourself from the online or university educated yoke and talk to some of the refugees I have from Somali Region of Ethiopia, Oromia, Afaris, Gambella...Ethiopia was for years a racist state that had a polished image internationally thanks to it being the AU headquarters and Selassie's propaganda about decolonisation.


The best way to know what each region of Ethiopia wants is to hold free fair and democratic elections. Not have Westerners or the Chinese decide for them what is right or wrong. (and yes I am aware of the irony, but surely a democratic process is the bare minimum to know what a people or peoples in this case want).

[Lord Halifax]

Most Spaniards don't want Catalan or Basque secession either, but if a majority in either of those two regions wanted to secede then you can easily argue it's the most democratic solution to let them. It all depends what demos you focus on. The one in the entire state or the ones in various subdivisions of it (regional, ethnic, religious etc.). 

Not even Tigrayans want to secede from Ethiopia so what is this tangent based on?

It's not a "tangent", I'm just pointing out the principal flaw in your argument as stated (if a majority within a country opposes something it's "undemocratic" to do it).