This election result is my dream come true
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  This election result is my dream come true
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Author Topic: This election result is my dream come true  (Read 510 times)
StateBoiler
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« on: November 05, 2020, 11:29:20 AM »

If you asked me pre-election what my dream was, as a more or less never Trump conservative I would've said Biden wins, but narrowly, and carries zero coattails down ballot.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2020, 11:35:34 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2020, 11:51:00 AM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

If I were you I would wait for the Georgia runoffs first Tongue

Although if those do go GOP it is a dream for a never-trump Republican as they won everything downballot but MI-sen and made major gains in the House.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2020, 11:50:09 AM »

If I were I would wait for the Georgia runoffs first Tongue

Although if those do go GOP it is a dream for a never-trump Republican as they won everything downballot but MI-sen and made major gains in the House.

No president on the ballot meaning a subset of voters won't care, therefore party with most institutional strength in the area wins provided there are no personality or other outside factors at play.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2020, 11:51:03 AM »

Biden, if he loses was chosen again by Dems as the nominee and he was scandalous like Hillary was.

Lessons from OH, FL, NC and TX, AA and Latinos are pro second amendment rights and for guns and against SSM.  Buttigieg dropped out before he was embarrassed in the South and dropped out after NV. All of these states voted for Bush W in 2004, due to a SSM ban which cost Kerry the Prez

NC is a tobacco state and so is KY, Bill Clinton sued the tobacco farmers in 1996
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 11:52:43 AM »

I don't think it is, though. The idea NeverTrumper scenario was a presidential blowout with massive downballot ticket-splitting. Trump's politics and perhaps the man's own political career will endure this very narrow loss mitigated by massive base turnout for his brand of Republicanism.
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Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2020, 11:59:37 AM »

How many reduxes of this thread are we going to have? Yes, we get it. You think poor people deserve to die if they can't afford healthcare and you're very happy nothing will be done to alleviate that, plus #Blumpf can't tweet anymore. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2020, 12:01:45 PM »

If you asked me pre-election what my dream was, as a more or less never Trump conservative I would've said Biden wins, but narrowly, and carries zero coattails down ballot.

This is kind of the boat I'm in. The more I think about the results, the better I think they are.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2020, 12:05:20 PM »

I don't think it is, though. The idea NeverTrumper scenario was a presidential blowout with massive downballot ticket-splitting. Trump's politics and perhaps the man's own political career will endure this very narrow loss mitigated by massive base turnout for his brand of Republicanism.

Looks like it'll be a fairly comfortable, but not blowout, Biden win. He's likely to win all 3 blue wall states, and is favored in Arizona and Georgia.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2020, 12:08:08 PM »

I don't think it is, though. The idea NeverTrumper scenario was a presidential blowout with massive downballot ticket-splitting. Trump's politics and perhaps the man's own political career will endure this very narrow loss mitigated by massive base turnout for his brand of Republicanism.

Looks like it'll be a fairly comfortable, but not blowout, Biden win. He's likely to win all 3 blue wall states, and is favored in Arizona and Georgia.

Yeah, but the reason it's not a blowout is because of insane turnout - Trump expanding the base in ways previous Republicans failed to. The focus for Republicans will now be on emulating whatever he did to get and keep that turnout; they can rest assured that Democratic turnout is probably going to drop in 2022 and 2024 regardless of who their next opponent is as Biden starts taking flack for problems beyond the current and the next president's control. That would presumably be enough even for Trump himself.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2020, 12:10:40 PM »

I don't think it is, though. The idea NeverTrumper scenario was a presidential blowout with massive downballot ticket-splitting.

That was never happening. Too many low information voters that don't care about downballot.

Quote
Trump's politics and perhaps the man's own political career will endure this very narrow loss mitigated by massive base turnout for his brand of Republicanism.

I already assumed that had changed. It's why I'm going to make the pitch that the Indiana Democratic Party is a dead organization and should be replaced by the Libertarians for 2nd-party status.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2020, 12:16:04 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."
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Crane
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2020, 12:28:05 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."

Hopefully the Dems don't have permanent damage from their unsuccessful Latino outreach this year.
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Sadader
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2020, 12:33:58 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."

Or Trumpism blew an easy re-election (perceived good economy + incumbency)

He’ll probably lose by the reverse EV total of 2016, and by a >4 point national margin. I don’t see that as a win.
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compucomp
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2020, 12:55:05 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."

I think in the postmortem (pun intended? maybe?) the Republicans will blame the loss on the coronavirus pandemic as an act of God that shifted the race 4-5 points against them. I think it should have shifted even more but if COVID-19 didn't exist Trump may have won the NPV this year.
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VBM
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2020, 12:59:55 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."
Will any 2024 likely GOP candidates have Trump’s """charm""" though?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2020, 01:03:05 PM »

Unfortunately, what this election does is basically validate Trumpism.  The voters could have overwhelmingly rejected Trump and his ideology, sending your party back to the drawing board to hopefully come back with an ideology and political playbook more suited to your beliefs.

Instead, the main takeaway here is going to be "Democrats failed downballot and only narrowly won the presidency, in a year where all the fundamentals were against us.  Let's do it again."

I think here are some actual takeaways:

-Trump is radioactive in the suburbs, but the "establishment wing" of the GOP still has appeal. Focusing on economic and "bread and butter" is good, but the culture wars are not.
-The GOP has a huge opportunity to win over black and Latino voters, and have locked down the Cuban vote for good.
-The election was a rejection of Trump rather than an election of Biden. Maybe Biden can be a unifier and help depolarize the country.
-The WWC seems to be a problem for Dems.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2020, 01:54:21 PM »

Okay, but why? What is your dream, beyond success for non-Trump Republicans and Trump (maybe) not being the leader of the party?
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