Is Biden actually going to win?

[Lincoln Republican]

The count continues.

Question -

Is Biden actually going to win?

Please discuss.

[Use Your Illusion]

3 of the 4 swing states are looking REALLY good for him right now. His odds are no worse than 75%. I think he did it. The early vote strategy was one of the best a campaign has maybe ever had. It is very hard to run a front porch campaign and win. He was never gonna do it unless early vote shattered records and it did

[Del Tachi]

PA and GA look good for him; NC good for Trump; AZ and NV still pretty unknown

So definitely advantage Biden at this point; which is where we've been since election night

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA and GA look good for him; NC good for Trump; AZ and NV still pretty unknown

So definitely advantage Biden at this point; which is where we've been since election night

Lol, all of the remaining ballots are VBM in Philly, Trump is done, he will lose PA

[Del Tachi]

PA and GA look good for him; NC good for Trump; AZ and NV still pretty unknown

So definitely advantage Biden at this point; which is where we've been since election night

Lol, all of the remaining ballots are VBM in Philly, Trump is done, he will lose PA

Uhm....

him = Biden

[BaldEagle1991]

I think I'm already mentally accepting that Biden is the 46th President based on how everything is standing.

[SN2903]

Trump def has the edge if he can win AZ and GA with a court battle in PA.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden will almost certainly win AZ.

Trump needs to sweep NC, GA, PA, and NV.

Trump will probably win NC, but he's very unlikely to win any of the remaining three.

EDIT: He has a good chance in GA, but PA and NV I don't see happening.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump will win NC and Georgia could go either way, but everything else looks pretty comfortable for Biden right now. And it doesn’t look like Perdue is going to hit 50%.

[Woody]

IDK We have to see how Arizona goes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

IDK We have to see how Arizona goes.

While I don't agree with Fox News calling AZ for Biden, Trump needs 57% of the remaining 470000 (NYT estimate) votes to pull even. What remains to be counted?

285,000 in Maricopa County (currently 51.4% Biden to 47.2% Trump)
45,000 in Pima County (currently 60.1% Biden to 38.6% Trump)
21,000 in Mohave County (currently 74.4% Trump to 24.5% Biden)
21,000 in Pinal County (currently 55.9% Trump to 42.4% Biden)
18,000 in Yuma County (currently 53.0% Trump to 45.5% Biden)
13,000 in Coconino County (currently 62.9% Biden to 35.2% Trump)
10,000 in Cochise County (currently 57.4% Trump to 40.7% Biden)
9,000 in Navajo County (currently 52.7% Trump to 46.0% Biden)
7,000 in Apache County (currently 66.8% Biden to 32.1% Trump)

There are probably some more votes floating around here and there, but that's what I could determine from the current numbers.

Maybe if I had precinct-level data I could piece together a scenario where Trump makes up a deficit of 68,000 votes, but I struggle to see how.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump needs to go 3/3 in AZ, GA, and PA. NC I think is a done deal for Trump. Nevada I think is Likely Biden due to the outstanding mail ballots still to count. I would rather be Biden right now than Trump.

[Del Tachi]

Trump's path is (legitimately) eking it out in AZ and GA, and then successfully challenging/stopping the PA count at some point.  That gets him to 279 (assuming NC is a done deal for him)

[RI]

Yes