New bellwether states

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The three states with the longest bellwether streak are now Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which have voted for the eventual winner since 2008.

If Trump, however, somehow manages to pull off a last-minute win, Ohio remains the state with the longest bellwether streak (since 1964).

PS: I have also made a thread about the one single remaining bellwether county.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, we'll have to see what happens in elections without Trump on the ballot. The Trump coalition seems to have in common with the Obama coalition the fact that a lot of voters only show up when he's on the ballot (but when he's on the ballot, they really show up).

Right now I'm still thinking Pennsylvania could be a bellwether. Geographically and demographically, it sort of has "a little bit of everything." It looks to be developing a situation similar to Florida, where all the little moving parts almost cancel each other out.

But we'll see what happens. You never truly know.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, we'll have to see what happens in elections without Trump on the ballot. The Trump coalition seems to have in common with the Obama coalition the fact that a lot of voters only show up when he's on the ballot (but when he's on the ballot, they really show up).

Right now I'm still thinking Pennsylvania could be a bellwether. Geographically and demographically, it sort of has "a little bit of everything." It looks to be developing a situation similar to Florida, where all the little moving parts almost cancel each other out.

But we'll see what happens. You never truly know.

When I talk about bellwether states, I'm always referring to bellwether streaks.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are zero states that got 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020 all correctly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. It's only gotten 1976 wrong. Every other state blew at least one of 2000, 2004, or 2020.

[Agonized-Statism]

R.I.P. the bellwethers

Pennsylvania until it shifts into the Republican column. After that, it'll probably be Texas since neither party can concede so many electoral votes. See New York in the 19th century.

[Calthrina950]

R.I.P. the bellwethers

Pennsylvania until it shifts into the Republican column. After that, it'll probably be Texas since neither party can concede so many electoral votes. See New York in the 19th century.

It looks like the era of close presidential elections, which has prevailed since 2000, is set to continue for the indefinite future. It would be very depressing if this country never sees a landslide at the presidential level again. But yes, I agree that Pennsylvania and Texas will probably be bellwether states in the future. Ohio has now lost her bellwether status, and is clearly headed the way of Indiana and Missouri.

[SWE]

New Mexico is still the best PV bellwether, it's only voted for the popular vote loser once since becoming a state (Ford over Carter)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

New Mexico is still the best PV bellwether, it's only voted for the popular vote loser once since becoming a state (Ford over Carter)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410893

[Mr. Smith]

In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. It's only gotten 1976 wrong. Every other state blew at least one of 2000, 2004, or 2020.

This is true of Nevada too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. It's only gotten 1976 wrong. Every other state blew at least one of 2000, 2004, or 2020.

This is true of Nevada too.

It depends on how you define the attribute perfect in this case.
If you measure the streak of the PV bellwether status, Nevada is indeed almost as "perfect" as New Mexico as its streak also began in 1912 (when NM took part in a presidential election for the very first time), and both states got it wrong in 1976 (and Nevada moreover in 2000).
If you, however, count the "misses" since the beginning of statehood, New Mexico is "perfecter" when it comes to popular vote "hits", as Nevada was truly an anti-bellwether state in its early years.
Here are the election years Nevada refused to vote for the popular vote winner:

1876
1880
1884
1892
1896
1900
1908
2000

I wonder why the Nevadans chose to vote for Kennedy in 1960, when every state surrounding them was supporting Nixon. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Mr. Smith]

In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. It's only gotten 1976 wrong. Every other state blew at least one of 2000, 2004, or 2020.

This is true of Nevada too.

It depends on how you define the attribute perfect in this case.
If you measure the streak of the PV bellwether status, Nevada is indeed almost as "perfect" as New Mexico as its streak also began in 1912 (when NM took part in a presidential election for the very first time), and both states got it wrong in 1976 (and Nevada moreover in 2000).
If you, however, count the "misses" since the beginning of statehood, New Mexico is "perfecter" when it comes to popular vote "hits", as Nevada was truly an anti-bellwether state in its early years.
Here are the election years Nevada refused to vote for the popular vote winner:

1876
1880
1884
1892
1896
1900
1908
2000

I wonder why the Nevadans chose to vote for Kennedy in 1960, when every state surrounding them was supporting Nixon. 🤷🏼‍♂️

In fairness, California was JFK leading  until the absentee ballots came in. The networks had it called for him initially.

But Nevada had Vegas connections and McCarran and all those sorts of things going on.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I wonder why the Nevadans chose to vote for Kennedy in 1960, when every state surrounding them was supporting Nixon. 🤷🏼‍♂️

Probably for the same reason why Georgians chose to vote for Biden in 2020, when every state surrounding them was supporting Trump?

[SingingAnalyst]

R.I.P. the bellwethers

Pennsylvania until it shifts into the Republican column. After that, it'll probably be Texas since neither party can concede so many electoral votes. See New York in the 19th century.

I think at least 3 of GA, MI, PA, WI will be pretty reliable bellwethers, and possibly even NC going forward.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Well, we'll have to see what happens in elections without Trump on the ballot. The Trump coalition seems to have in common with the Obama coalition the fact that a lot of voters only show up when he's on the ballot (but when he's on the ballot, they really show up).

Right now I'm still thinking Pennsylvania could be a bellwether. Geographically and demographically, it sort of has "a little bit of everything." It looks to be developing a situation similar to Florida, where all the little moving parts almost cancel each other out.

But we'll see what happens. You never truly know.

When I talk about bellwether states, I'm always referring to bellwether streaks. Pennsylvania will probably vote for the statewide winner in the future again, but its voting streak has been brought to a temporary halt for now.

Did you think Trump would win Pennsylvania, when you posted this?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Did you think Trump would win Pennsylvania, when you posted this?

Yessssss! I simply underestimated the huge number of mail-in votes.
I feel so ashamed, embarrassed and stupid now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Did you think Trump would win Pennsylvania, when you posted this?

Yessssss! I simply underestimated the huge number of mail-in votes.
I feel so ashamed, embarrassed and stupid now.

Don't be so hard on yourself.

[DabbingSanta]

Longest winning streaks...

popular vote: New Mexico since 1980

actual winner:  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania since 2008