Surprising realizations from the 2020 election

[Pissed-off CVS Manager]

Based on the 2020 election results, it appears that contrary to Atlas consesus, GA is capable of voting to the left of FL, NC, and TX, and that NV can vote to the right of AZ. Wississippi is apparently more blue (non-Atlas blue) than PA and FL???!

[Dr. Arch]

So, based on the 2020 election results, it appears that contrary to Atlas consesus, GA is capable of voting to the left of FL, NC, and TX, and that NV can vote to the right of AZ. Wississippi is apparently more blue (non-Atlas blue) than PA and FL???!

PA is not close to done.

[Pissed-off CVS Manager]

Also, it is interesting that ID swung so hard for Trump, more than other states when Biden was expected to be competitive in ID.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, it is interesting that ID swung so hard for Trump, more than other states when Biden was expected to be competitive in ID.

I'm sorry. Are you saying that it was expected for Biden to be competitive in IDAHO?

[Pissed-off CVS Manager]

Also, it is interesting that ID swung so hard for Trump, more than other states when Biden was expected to be competitive in ID.

I'm sorry. You're saying that it was expected for Biden to be competitive in IDAHO?

Well, the state was expected to trend towards Biden. It voted 59% for Trump in 2016, and now it shoots up to 63%, which is impressive when you consider that most states never cross the 60% threshold for any candidate. The Boise susburbs were expected to shift to Biden, but this apparently did not materialize. Trump performed worse in OK this year (65% in 2020, 66% in 2016) but better in Idaho.

clinton trump voters

[S019ian Liberal]

Based on the 2020 election results, it appears that contrary to Atlas consesus, GA is capable of voting to the left of FL, NC, and TX, and that NV can vote to the right of AZ. Wississippi is apparently more blue (non-Atlas blue) than PA and FL???!

Lol. Wtf smoking are you on man? muh "Idaho is rarely 60%+ R"

[ElectionsGuy]

I was shocked - literally shocked - by the numbers from Miami-Dade and South Texas. I knew Trump was going to improve with Hispanics, but the extent to which he did is astounding. Dems need to think about this going forward.

I will also admit I was a little wrong on Georgia - it's a serious problem for Republicans and I don't think it'll ever be Lean R for the foreseeable future. I thought Trump would improve by enough with blacks to offset some of his suburban Atlanta erosion - but the erosion was stronger than I expected.

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gunernatoriak map 2021/2024 26D/24R

Biden replicated the Gubernatorial elections for the next 4 yesrs

[ibagli]

Also, it is interesting that ID swung so hard for Trump, more than other states when Biden was expected to be competitive in ID.

Idaho was always going to swing to Trump, for the same reason as Utah. Trump's baseline was artificially low because of McMullin.

[Panda Express]

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

Urbanization or the urban/rural trends will only benefit the Democrats if the cities are growing at a healthy clip

If you look at the population change between 2010-2019, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Detroit all lost population

Philadelphia grew 3.80% which is fine but not spectacular

Minneapolis grew 12.28%

[pbrower2a]

Much of Suburbia is legitimately urban now with the same problems that the core cities used to have to themselves: traffic congestion, decaying infrastructure, pollution, poverty, drugs, crime, and struggling schools. Suburbia in its old days used to have some rural qualities with low-density population and lily-white populations: that is often over. Suburban America often has giant apartment complexes that have replaced the post-WWII bungalows of returning veterans of the Greatest Generation. Many of the remaining bungalows that once had middle-class households resembling the family of Ward, June, and "Beaver" Cleaver on TV are now decrepit slums seventy years later.  In a city like Detroit there remains urban flight -- but that is now black urban flight to Detroit suburbs. Those black people are not changing their political values.

The trends in Suburbia have existed for several decades. Joe Biden is on the brink of winning the Electoral College at least with 270 electoral votes and, as the rest of the count comes in, either 270 itself, an electoral count that could be any of

285 (add NC)
286 (add GA)
290 (add PA)
301 (add GA and NC)
305 (add NC and PA)
306 (add GA and PA)
321 (add GA, NC, and PA)

Biden is not going to win Alaska.

Consider this: Joe Biden already has a majority of the popular vote already, and that majority is only going to get bigger even if he wins no more states.

[ultraviolet]

Gunernatoriak map

[charcuterie]

I think that the big shocker will come after all the votes are counted and we check out where states voted relative to the nation. 2024 strategy will probably be completely different from this year.

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump has made inroads with Latinos despite offending them and immigration issues.

[Calthrina950]

It appears that the Evan McMullin vote in Utah split about 50/50 between Trump and Biden. Trump ended up receiving less than 60% of the vote (as most predicted), but Biden failed to break 40%. Nevertheless, his 38% is still the best Democratic performance in the state since Lyndon Johnson. And one of the few states where the polls were relatively accurate was my home state of Colorado. Gardner lost by 9% and Trump lost by 13%-in line with what we saw for most of the year. Biden's 55% is the best percentage a Democrat has garnered in Colorado since Johnson.

[GlobeSoc]

i wonder if part of the reason that MN is acting differently is that it hasn't had an R trifecta for a long time to disrupt democratic voting blocks?

Also long term the Democrats really should make a play for Mormons if at all possible. Getting Utah to behave like a secular state with the same demographics would make senatorial alignment a bit easier. The same is true to a lesser extent for the plains and mountain west in general, but utah seems like the easiest of those states to lay the groundwork by far

[(no subject)]

AOC might like to consider the possibility that Hispanic voters, particularly but not solely the Cuban-Americans in Florida, reacted badly to the sight of prominent Democrats (such as herself) promoting socialism, a system many of them have had personal experience of and came to America to escape from.

Few of those whose families have emigrated from Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela have any experience of Scandinavian social-democracy. They have had plenty of experience of Castro, Ortega and Chavez, and that is what they see socialism as. So when they see a prominent Latina Democrat like AOC espousing socialismo, they take her at her word and vote accordingly.

[Del Tachi]

Talking about how "socialism" or "immigration" affected the national Latino vote is typical, overwrought Atlas #analysis. 

Let's face it:  at their core, Latino Americans are ethnic Whites

The fact that they voted more like ethnic Whites in 2020 may have something to do with how prominently race/BLM were played as issues by the Democrats.  It should be no secret that Black and Latino communities don't....uhm...well...let's just say...see eye to eye with one another on a lot of issues 

[Hope For A New Era]

Also long term the Democrats really should make a play for Mormons if at all possible. Getting Utah to behave like a secular state with the same demographics would make senatorial alignment a bit easier. The same is true to a lesser extent for the plains and mountain west in general, but utah seems like the easiest of those states to lay the groundwork by far

Absolutely. Utah is a Safe D state waiting to happen at this point.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Talking about how "socialism" or "immigration" affected the national Latino vote is typical, overwrought Atlas #analysis. 

Let's face it:  at their core, Latino Americans are ethnic Whites

The fact that they voted more like ethnic Whites in 2020 may have something to do with how prominently race/BLM were played as issues by the Democrats.  It should be no secret that Black and Latino communities don't....uhm...well...let's just say...see eye to eye with one another on a lot of issues 

You do know that Latinos still voted significantly for Biden overall, right?

[Del Tachi]

Talking about how "socialism" or "immigration" affected the national Latino vote is typical, overwrought Atlas #analysis. 

Let's face it:  at their core, Latino Americans are ethnic Whites

The fact that they voted more like ethnic Whites in 2020 may have something to do with how prominently race/BLM were played as issues by the Democrats.  It should be no secret that Black and Latino communities don't....uhm...well...let's just say...see eye to eye with one another on a lot of issues 

You do know that Latinos still voted significantly for Biden overall, right?

You do know change happens at the margins, right?  lol

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I was shocked - literally shocked - by the numbers from Miami-Dade and South Texas. I knew Trump was going to improve with Hispanics, but the extent to which he did is astounding. Dems need to think about this going forward.

I will also admit I was a little wrong on Georgia - it's a serious problem for Republicans and I don't think it'll ever be Lean R for the foreseeable future. I thought Trump would improve by enough with blacks to offset some of his suburban Atlanta erosion - but the erosion was stronger than I expected.

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

Speculation: If you want to know where Democrats are losing the most ground, take a look at MN-01, MN-02, and WI-03. My hunch is that sentiments are very similar. If you want to know where Democrats are making up for those losses, take a look at MN-04, MN-05, and WI-02.

I think Democrats are on the decline in both MN and WI in rural areas for the exact same reasons, but MN has a much larger progressive urban/suburban population to draw from and compensate than WI does. Double the size of the Madison metro and you'll get a Badger state that looks more like a carbon copy of the Gopher State.

[lfromnj]

I was shocked - literally shocked - by the numbers from Miami-Dade and South Texas. I knew Trump was going to improve with Hispanics, but the extent to which he did is astounding. Dems need to think about this going forward.

I will also admit I was a little wrong on Georgia - it's a serious problem for Republicans and I don't think it'll ever be Lean R for the foreseeable future. I thought Trump would improve by enough with blacks to offset some of his suburban Atlanta erosion - but the erosion was stronger than I expected.

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

Speculation: If you want to know where Democrats are losing the most ground, take a look at MN-01, MN-02, and WI-03. My hunch is that sentiments are very similar. If you want to know where Democrats are making up for those losses, take a look at MN-04, MN-05, and WI-02.

I think Democrats are on the decline in both MN and WI for the exact same reasons, but MN has a much larger progressive urban/suburban population to draw from than WI does. Double the size of the Madison metro and you'll get a Badger state that looks more like a carbon copy of the Gopher State.

But it looks like WI03/IL17/IA01 all swung neutrally this year while MN01 swung D.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I was shocked - literally shocked - by the numbers from Miami-Dade and South Texas. I knew Trump was going to improve with Hispanics, but the extent to which he did is astounding. Dems need to think about this going forward.

I will also admit I was a little wrong on Georgia - it's a serious problem for Republicans and I don't think it'll ever be Lean R for the foreseeable future. I thought Trump would improve by enough with blacks to offset some of his suburban Atlanta erosion - but the erosion was stronger than I expected.

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

Speculation: If you want to know where Democrats are losing the most ground, take a look at MN-01, MN-02, and WI-03. My hunch is that sentiments are very similar. If you want to know where Democrats are making up for those losses, take a look at MN-04, MN-05, and WI-02.

I think Democrats are on the decline in both MN and WI for the exact same reasons, but MN has a much larger progressive urban/suburban population to draw from than WI does. Double the size of the Madison metro and you'll get a Badger state that looks more like a carbon copy of the Gopher State.

But it looks like WI03/IL17/IA01 all swung neutrally this year while MN01 swung D.

I mean, over time, at all levels. Ron Kind had to sweat out the results after two decades of no serious Republican challenge whatsoever.

[lfromnj]

I was shocked - literally shocked - by the numbers from Miami-Dade and South Texas. I knew Trump was going to improve with Hispanics, but the extent to which he did is astounding. Dems need to think about this going forward.

I will also admit I was a little wrong on Georgia - it's a serious problem for Republicans and I don't think it'll ever be Lean R for the foreseeable future. I thought Trump would improve by enough with blacks to offset some of his suburban Atlanta erosion - but the erosion was stronger than I expected.

I also want to know what happened in Minnesota that didn't in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dems performed like a big Biden victory would've happened nationwide and flipped several Trump '16 counties back blue. I know their state party is strong but it was a serious outlier in the Midwest.

Speculation: If you want to know where Democrats are losing the most ground, take a look at MN-01, MN-02, and WI-03. My hunch is that sentiments are very similar. If you want to know where Democrats are making up for those losses, take a look at MN-04, MN-05, and WI-02.

I think Democrats are on the decline in both MN and WI for the exact same reasons, but MN has a much larger progressive urban/suburban population to draw from than WI does. Double the size of the Madison metro and you'll get a Badger state that looks more like a carbon copy of the Gopher State.

But it looks like WI03/IL17/IA01 all swung neutrally this year while MN01 swung D.

I mean, over time, at all levels. Ron Kind had to sweat out the results after two decades of no serious Republican challenge whatsoever.

Talking about the presidential results from 2016>2020.