Will Biden flip Inyo County, CA?

[E-Dawg]

Inyo County is in the Sierra Nevada region bordering Nevada, and it is extremely sparsely populated with only 18,000 people. The county has voted consistently Republican, with Trump winning by a 13 point margin in 2016, which was about the same margin as in past elections. However, the current results in the county show Biden leading 54.2%-43.7% with 66% of the vote in. I find this interesting because Mono and Alpine, the two fellow sparsely populated counties bordering Nevada, also used to be very Republican. However, those two counties have become very Democratic in recent years, and I don't know why that is and am wondering if Inyo will do the same. Do you guys think Biden will maintain his lead and flip Inyo, or do you think the current count is a fluke? I'm happy to hear any theories on what may be the cause of this potential flip.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I would be surprised if Inyo stayed Democratic when all votes are counted. Unlike Mono and Alpine Counties, there is not a major ski resort in Inyo County. Teton County, WY; Blaine County, ID; Park County, UT; and a lot of Colorado counties are heavily Democratic because they have ski resorts.

Looking at the numbers in two previous elections:
2016: 4,248 (Trump) to 3,155 (Clinton) plus some third party vote
2018 - Gov: 4,018 (Cox, Republican) to 3,244 (Newsom, Democratic) with no third party vote

Now, with ~66% reporting, we have 3,443 for Biden and 2,776 for Trump. That’s a lot of ground (1,500 or so votes) that Trump would have to make up unopposed to meet previous Republican benchmarks.

I’m a believer in the idea that, with changes in CA law for 2020 regarding counting mail-in ballots, that we might not see the long tail of Democratic-leaning results that characterized California reporting for the last several elections (and maybe before I followed it closely). Now, the mail-in ballots could at least be somewhat processed before Election Day, leading to a lot more votes being counted and reported on the night of Election Day. It should help reduce California’s reputation for taking ages to count votes, but it might mess with known reporting patterns.

TL;DR: Inyo County doesn’t have the defining characteristic of liberal mountain-west counties (ski resort(s)), but Biden has done quite well on the initial count and we could see a big swing here. All of that depends on the remaining ballots though.

[E-Dawg]

I would be surprised if Inyo stayed Democratic when all votes are counted. Unlike Mono and Alpine Counties, there is not a major ski resort in Inyo County. Teton County, WY; Blaine County, ID; Park County, UT; and a lot of Colorado counties are heavily Democratic because they have ski resorts.

Looking at the numbers in two previous elections:
2016: 4,248 (Trump) to 3,155 (Clinton) plus some third party vote
2018 - Gov: 4,018 (Cox, Republican) to 3,244 (Newsom, Democratic) with no third party vote

Now, with ~66% reporting, we have 3,443 for Biden and 2,776 for Trump. That’s a lot of ground (1,500 or so votes) that Trump would have to make up unopposed to meet previous Republican benchmarks.

I’m a believer in the idea that, with changes in CA law for 2020 regarding counting mail-in ballots, that we might not see the long tail of Democratic-leaning results that characterized California reporting for the last several elections (and maybe before I followed it closely). Now, the mail-in ballots could at least be somewhat processed before Election Day, leading to a lot more votes being counted and reported on the night of Election Day. It should help reduce California’s reputation for taking ages to count votes, but it might mess with known reporting patterns.

TL;DR: Inyo County doesn’t have the defining characteristic of liberal mountain-west counties (ski resort(s)), but Biden has done quite well on the initial count and we could see a big swing here. All of that depends on the remaining ballots though.

I have noticed that the count in the counties in the south of the Central Valley where I live (Tulare, Kern, Kings) have become more Republican as votes keep being counted, so there's probably a good chance Inyo will remain Republican, though it looks like the margin would still be surprisingly close.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I would be surprised if Inyo stayed Democratic when all votes are counted. Unlike Mono and Alpine Counties, there is not a major ski resort in Inyo County. Teton County, WY; Blaine County, ID; Park County, UT; and a lot of Colorado counties are heavily Democratic because they have ski resorts.

Looking at the numbers in two previous elections:
2016: 4,248 (Trump) to 3,155 (Clinton) plus some third party vote
2018 - Gov: 4,018 (Cox, Republican) to 3,244 (Newsom, Democratic) with no third party vote

Now, with ~66% reporting, we have 3,443 for Biden and 2,776 for Trump. That’s a lot of ground (1,500 or so votes) that Trump would have to make up unopposed to meet previous Republican benchmarks.

I’m a believer in the idea that, with changes in CA law for 2020 regarding counting mail-in ballots, that we might not see the long tail of Democratic-leaning results that characterized California reporting for the last several elections (and maybe before I followed it closely). Now, the mail-in ballots could at least be somewhat processed before Election Day, leading to a lot more votes being counted and reported on the night of Election Day. It should help reduce California’s reputation for taking ages to count votes, but it might mess with known reporting patterns.

TL;DR: Inyo County doesn’t have the defining characteristic of liberal mountain-west counties (ski resort(s)), but Biden has done quite well on the initial count and we could see a big swing here. All of that depends on the remaining ballots though.

I have noticed that the count in the counties in the south of the Central Valley where I live (Tulare, Kern, Kings) have become more Republican as votes keep being counted, so there's probably a good chance Inyo will remain Republican, though it looks like the margin would still be surprisingly close.

Yeah, I have noticed that too. I remember El Dorado (five miles from where I live) and Kern being Dem initially, but both have flipped to Trump. I think El Dorado (and Placer) will be closer than ever given their high number of educated suburbanites. I don’t see that in Inyo, so it would be a shocker. I’m also assuming that it will go more Republican as more votes are counted. We shall see!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Inyo went from 3,443 for Biden and 2,776 for Trump with ~66% reporting to 3,894 for Biden and 3,393 for Trump. So Biden gained 450 and Trump gained about 625. Not enough to close the gap yet, but it definitely helped Trump. Only 500 votes separate them now.

[Battista Minola 1616]

In this moment Joe Biden still leads by 59 votes with 95% reporting.
It will be the ultimate nail-biter! What if Biden and Trump tie? I think a county tie hasn't happened since 1992.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

In this moment Joe Biden still leads by 59 votes with 95% reporting.
It will be the ultimate nail-biter! What if Biden and Trump tie? I think a county tie hasn't happened since 1992.

As of 1:18 PM PST on Friday, Inyo is reporting 370 ballots to count, including same-day registration. It will be close. A tie would be fun to see.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Environmentalists and national park rangers don’t like anti-science, climate change denying politicians.

[E-Dawg]

Environmentalists and national park rangers don’t like anti-science, climate change denying politicians.

That may be the case for some people in Inyo, but the county has consistently voted Republican by about by over 10 point margins, even for Trump in 2016. Why would the people in Inyo have flipped parties now and not sooner?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Environmentalists and national park rangers don’t like anti-science, climate change denying politicians.

That may be the case for some people in Inyo, but the county has consistently voted Republican by about by over 10 point margins, even for Trump in 2016. Why would the people in Inyo have flipped parties now and not sooner?

Crack theory: climate change is progressively getting worse, and Trump has been more administratively incompetent than previous Republicans. Maybe the voters of Inyo county reached a breaking point?

[E-Dawg]

Currently, there are now 4,623 Biden votes and 4,611 Trump votes. I don't know now many raw votes are left to be counted, but it looks like this county may stay with Trump after all.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Currently, there are now 4,623 Biden votes and 4,611 Trump votes. I don't know now many raw votes are left to be counted, but it looks like this county may stay with Trump after all.

62 uncured votes left in Inyo, though now it's a question of how many get resolved in time.

Regardless of who ends up winning, it'll still be the best result for a Dem here since LBJ

[Battista Minola 1616]

Currently, there are now 4,623 Biden votes and 4,611 Trump votes. I don't know now many raw votes are left to be counted, but it looks like this county may stay with Trump after all.

62 uncured votes left in Inyo, though now it's a question of how many get resolved in time.

Regardless of who ends up winning, it'll still be the best result for a Dem here since LBJ

As I said, it's the ultimate nail biter.

But having so much (very empty) land mass flip blue would be very nice to see on a map.

[E-Dawg]

Inyo being blue honestly makes the California county map more aesthetically pleasing IMO.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Inyo being blue honestly makes the California county map more aesthetically pleasing IMO.

Hard agree. It just feels "off" that Alpine and Mono vote differently from Inyo.

[E-Dawg]

Does anyone know how many votes are left in the county to be counted? Count hasnt updated in like a week.

[Hope For A New Era]

I swear we're heading for this map



I mean it jokingly right now, but seriously...is there even a ceiling? It seems like every election Ds flip more counties.

Dems need to stop packing themselves so hard, and quickly. Spread out, Californians! Do it for the Senate!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Inyo has its final results report up.

Biden flipped the county by fourteen votes, 4,634 to 4,620.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Inyo has its final results report up.

Biden flipped the county by fourteen votes, 4,634 to 4,620.

IT'S REAL!

I like me some a Lombardy-sized flip (in terms of area).

[Rand]

To those who thought this county couldn’t/wouldn’t flip..

INYO FACE!

[vileplume]

I swear we're heading for this map



I mean it jokingly right now, but seriously...is there even a ceiling? It seems like every election Ds flip more counties.

Dems need to stop packing themselves so hard, and quickly. Spread out, Californians! Do it for the Senate!

Lol it's more likely IMO that California swings back to more 'normal' margins than gets ludicrously 70+% Democratic (which as you say is better for the Dems anyway). This is because the reason why California has been one of the most Dem states over the past several years is more due to it having a low non-Hispanic white population and the GOP playing into 'white identity' politics rather than because of white coastal 'latte liberals' (who are a factor in the state's strong blue lean, just not the primary one).

If the GOP is going to be a sustainable party long term they are going to have to do consistently better with non-white voters (of which you perhaps saw the first signs of this year) otherwise the party will die. If/when this happens California is one of the states that will see the biggest GOP improvements relative to now (though actually winning the state as a whole will remain very difficult). Remember also that California rejected numerous leftist/liberal ballot measures this year so there is definitely a market for a right inclined party to perform significantly better in the state than the GOP currently does, provided said party can bridge the racial voting gap.

Thus whilst it is very possible that Inyo continues to trend Democratic due to the spread of a rural liberal culture that affects Mono and Alpine, I think it's quite likely that even if the Dems win the presidency in 2024 that the GOP at least regains Butte and flips Stanislaus. When the GOP eventually wins the national popular vote again they'll probably also be winning counties such as Merced, Fresno, San Bernardino and Riverside and possibly places like their old stronghold of Orange (if they can reverse Trump's poor performance in places like Laguna Niguel and build on his gains with Asian voters) or Imperial (if rural/non-urban Hispanics start voting more like rural/non-urban whites).

[E-Dawg]

Inyo has its final results report up.

Biden flipped the county by fourteen votes, 4,634 to 4,620.

Damn that was close. Its pretty sad that it took a whole month to know for sure. Oh well, California is still quicker at this than New York.

[DrScholl]

An almost 1500 vote gain in such a small county is impressive especially when you consider it has lost population since 2010.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Inyo has its final results report up.

Biden flipped the county by fourteen votes, 4,634 to 4,620.

DEATH VALLEY JOE

[Young Conservative]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?