Arizona... 2020 fluke?

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona's Maricopa suburban trends got somewhat counterbalanced with Trump's improved performance among Hispanics. That's why it's going to be so close. It was on the path to be purple in 2020 with or without the McCain factor.

[ElectionsGuy]

AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, there’s more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.

That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasn’t that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.

Surprising. I'm sure it's surprising for you.

Remember when you insinuated that I didn't care about the demographic and geographic reality of the situation? Or that I don't acknowledge the shift in the party coalitions? All because I suggested Arizona isn't GONE for Trump? You called the state Likely D and said Trump's path doesn't run through the state. Instead, he's losing it by 0.3% and his path DID run through the state.

Of course not. Only people who believe every stupid OHPI poll that comes out would think that.

More like people who care about the demographic and geographic realities of this state, which suggest an extremely unfavorable future for Republicans in our current alignment, people who acknowledge the shifts in the two parties' coalitions, and people who realize that there is no recent history of Democratic bias in pre-election polling in AZ, but okay.

In any case, if by "gone" you mean Likely D, then yes. I don’t think Trump's path to 270 runs through this state.

How noble and knowledgable you must be good sir. I mean wow, the pretentiousness just reeks.

I'm not denying the "reality" of the way Arizona has gone and is going, I haven't seen many people deny that. What I'm suggesting is that the state is still close and Trump still has the possibility of winning it, and a poll that refuses to weight by education and has a host of other problems does not change that.

What I'm suggesting is it's not gone (aka: It's not Safe D, Likely D does not mean gone). But even saying that has now become too "Republican-friendly" for you to tolerate.

[ElectionsGuy]

^Yes, I’ve already admitted that I jumped the gun on AZ, so your constant ‘rub it in their faces’/‘stick it to the hive mind’ shtick accomplishes virtually nothing and I’m (reluctantly) putting you on ignore now. I was hesitant at first because you generally provide valuable/interesting/thoughtful contributions to this forum (which you’re absolutely right to call out for its Democratic bias) and I’m probably closer to you ideologically than most other green avatars here, but it got really old after the first 500 times and I already have 280 alerts. We all make bad predictions/push premature narratives (as do you sometimes) but I suggest getting over your obsession with me in particular. Believe it or not, there’s plenty of other posters to ‘go after’ that fit your impression of me (smug, sarcastic, part of the hive mind, etc.).

I could mock your analysis about NH being some unpredictable, swingy, independent state that Trump had a better shot at than WI/MI/PA in 2016 and that’s proven its status as one of the most elastic states at the federal level this year even though it has an all-D Congressional delegation, Ayotte couldn’t even win in 2016, Shaheen did better than Warner in 2014 and was the only Democrat to survive a race which was actually targeted by the NRSC, etc., but why bother?

That's fine. I'll stop bringing stuff up and criticizing your past posts. But understand the reason I'm doing this. You spent months specifically responding to me, almost always in a negative way. No one, not any other person, responded to me more directly than you did. I don't typically bump threads to respond to people unless they wrongfully attack me or others. That's why I've been on your case the past few weeks moreso than some others (I don't have the "obsession" you claim I have). I go after other people too but no one was more consistently hostile to me than you were.

I don't appreciate being insulted for months and months leading up to an election for differing perspectives. That's my warning to you, don't engage with me this way again and I'll drop the criticism and we can interact with each other normally again. And I really hope that can happen again at some point because you make some good points in many of your posts.