Arizona... 2020 fluke?

[Blue3]

Did Arizona only go blue because of Trump’s repeated dissing of McCain and how COVID has ravaged there?

Will it realistically be in play in 2024, or was 2020 a unique storm?

Especially with how much closer Nevada has gotten, and how Trump seems to have greatly expanded the Latino vote despite everything.

[Catalyst138]

Nah Arizona trends are a real thing. It’s on track to become Virginia 2.0.

Also Nevada only had 67% of the vote in, it’s probably going to be a larger lead in the end. Nevada always looks closer than it ends up being.

[Kuumo]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Secretary of State in 2021 should tell you that Biden's likely victory was not a fluke. Arizona won't necessarily become as Democratic as Virginia and Colorado, but it will very much be a competitive state for at least the next two election cycles.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators

tells me Martha McSally is an idiot, and the GOP's worst enemy in AZ is the arrogance and incompetence of the state party.

[Frodo]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators

tells me Martha McSally is an idiot, and the GOP's worst enemy in AZ is the arrogance and incompetence of the state party.

They kept the legislature, so they can't be that incompetent. 

[Kuumo]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators

tells me Martha McSally is an idiot, and the GOP's worst enemy in AZ is the arrogance and incompetence of the state party.

True. And I think it's more likely than not that the AZ-GOP continues to be incompetent.

Just look at the VA-GOP. About 12 years ago, Virginia was in about the same place politically as Arizona right now. And what did the VA-GOP do? Other than one gubernatorial victory in 2009, they proceeded to lose every statewide election until they finally lost even their legislative majorities in 2019 because they were so deep in denial that their state was changing and would slip away from them if they didn't change their messaging and strategy.

The AZ-GOP could fare better, but they need to get to work right now since they already don't have much of a bench other than Doug Ducey since they lost both Senate seats and all of their House members are either crazy (Gosar, Biggs, Lesko) or have serious baggage (Schweikert). They are still relatively strong on the state level, but trends tend to hit state level elections last (VA, NV, KY, WV, AR, etc.). If Arizona Republicans want to keep Arizona competitive for the next decade, they need to perform well in 2022 by defeating Mark Kelly and holding on the governor's office and their legislative majorities. They are lucky that they can use the 2022 election to test strategies for 2024, which will likely be a tougher election for them than 2022.

[lfromnj]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators

tells me Martha McSally is an idiot, and the GOP's worst enemy in AZ is the arrogance and incompetence of the state party.

They kept the legislature, so they can't be that incompetent. 

yeah that too with a pretty gerrymandered D favored map.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AZ will be contested in 2024 just like VA and CO were contested in 2012.

[TDAS04]

Arizona 2020 is Virginia 2008, not Indiana 2008.

[Santander]

Where else can we spend our winters now? Every state either has Democrat tyranny or is the sh**thole that is the Southeast.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators

tells me Martha McSally is an idiot, and the GOP's worst enemy in AZ is the arrogance and incompetence of the state party.

They kept the legislature, so they can't be that incompetent. 

Virginia Republicans kept the state House until last year...

[pbrower2a]

No. Fast-growing Mexican-American population and a faster-growing Mexican-American electorate. Lots of people moving in from California to get away from high rents and taxes, taking their political beliefs with them (although many leaving California are Mexican-Americans, which creates obvious overlap).

See California or New Mexico in the 1990's, Colorado and Nevada in the Double-Zero Decade, and Te4xas in the 2020's.   

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona's Maricopa suburban trends got somewhat counterbalanced with Trump's improved performance among Hispanics. That's why it's going to be so close. It was on the path to be purple in 2020 with or without the McCain factor.

[lfromnj]

Arizona's Maricopa suburban trends got somewhat counterbalanced with Trump's improved performance among Hispanics. That's why it's going to be so close. It was on the path to be purple in 2020 with or without the McCain factor.

Yeah look at Santa Cruz and Yuma.

[Medal506]

AZ will be contested in 2024 just like VA and CO were contested in 2012.

I think Santorum or Gingrich could have won Virginia as it did have a huge evangelical population.

[Chips]

Where else can we spend our winters now? Every state either has Democrat tyranny or is the sh**thole that is the Southeast.

Texas.

[bagelman]

It's a 2020 fluke that the state almost voted Trump.

[xavier110]

It depends on if these suburban college-educated folks stay with Ds as the non-white population grows.

[Chips]

The GOP is capable of winning AZ in future elections. They just need to keep Trump's gains among Hispanics and then nominate someone who resonates more with college-educateds and boom.

[Figueira]

No, it's a swing state now.

[Samof94]

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Secretary of State in 2021 should tell you that Biden's likely victory was not a fluke. Arizona won't necessarily become as Democratic as Virginia and Colorado, but it will very much be a competitive state for at least the next two election cycles.

They have a majority D delegation.

[cwh2018]

Arizona is one of the top5 r 6 most important states for at least the next 2 to 3 elections.  It could be a key swing state for the next 20 years.  It will aslo gain an electoral college vote.

[dw93]

Could be, only time could tell. For all we know, Georgia could be the fluke.

[prag_prog]

I don't think it will quickly become solid D states like VA, Colorado..I think it will still be a closely contested battleground state for atleast next 2-3 cycles.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes AZ has joined the 291/247 blue wall and Sinema and Kelly should be reelected and AZ should have a D as Gov in 2022