Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.
They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.
Yep. First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04). In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis. Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.
There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.
Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado. He basically gets Hinchey’s old district. Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.
Yeah its really tough to remove Katko without Ithaca, I guess one could cook up some monstrosity or something Rochester is barely holding itself in a Likely/Safe D seat and its not much more with Buffalo.
I guess what happens is you throw Utica into Katko's seat and force it to shed its more Republican western counties, wouldn't be a done deal, but still probably a Lean D seat and maybe Likely D, if he faces Brindisi. Also if NY Dems take the supermajority, Malliotakis is done, her seat can just be drawn into Manhattan and become like D+30, and the Brooklyn part of the seat is actually quite blue I believe, so incumbents won't complain about having to take it in. My guess is that you follow the Verrazano Bridge onto 278 and then take the Battery Tunnel into Manhattan to get road continuity and then just send the seat into Manhattan, this messes with Nadler's seat a bit, but not too much, and Nadler is of course still safe.
My guess is Dems go for a 22-4 or 21-4 delegation, depending on whether NY loses one or two CD's, in both cases the cuts would probably be seats currently held by Dems. (The first cut would be Brindisi (or Tenney, if she hangs on) and the second cut would be an NYC Dem) Katko and Malliotakis are targeted and all other Reps are not targeted and all Dems are made safe.
