2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here

[lfromnj]

MN state senate is looking close although looking like the GOP holds it.

[lfromnj]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/11/04/dems-and-progs-lose-supermajority-in-the-vermont-house-by-a-hair


Something went really wrong for downballot Ds literally everywhere, I can't see many states where they are actually improving

Anyway this definitely means no Bernie cabinet position.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1324258950418780160

Dems aren't even flipping AZ legislature even with a massive gerrymander in their favor, tbf its a bit less effective by the end of the decade.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin GOP failed to get supermajorities in the Legislature. 

Republicans flipped 2 Senate seats SD-10 in the Twin Cities exurbs and SD-30 in the Green Bay Area.  SD-32 in western Wisconsin is led by the a Democrat by about 600 votes.  If things stand, the GOP is one seat short of a supermajority.  21-12 GOP.

Dems netted 2 seats in the Assembly, Ad-13 and AD-23, both in the Milwaukee suburbs.  61-38 GOP.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/republicans-fall-short-of-veto-proof-majorities-in-wisconsin-legislature/article_13ad5df1-4e2d-5750-890e-8372a9d5b2ec.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I mean... Dems winning legislative seats in WOW is a BFD.

Its bacon stripped between Waukesha and Milwaukee county and Ozaukee and Milwaukee county. Its also the parts of those WOW counties closest to Milwaukee.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1324599938542698497

lol

[lfromnj]

Clinton +6,
ouch.

[lfromnj]

Ouch
 NC democrats lost a clean Wilmington state senate district to the left of the county which voted for Biden.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1325959085309763585

lol, dems got to redraw all the Mecklenburg and Wake districts during the redraw.

[lfromnj]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/11/11/jose-javier-rodriguez-ileana-garcia-recount-continues-state-senate-district-37/

Never change FDP

Looks like Democrats are about to lose a senate seat covering parts of the actual city of Miami itself that even voted for Murphy in 2016. Republicans may have ran a person who was an indy with the same last name as the D and they got like 1.5%.

[lfromnj]

Looks like the Alaska house is looking ok for D's.

[lfromnj]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

I feel like that could end up as a massive dummymander.

Not at all.  Pack all of rural Western NY and the Southern Tier into one district (Reed), pack the North Country and Republican areas in the Mohawk Valley into one district (Stefanik), and then pack two Republicans on Long Island.  For good measure, send a tendril from the Bronx/Yonkers district to grab very Republican parts of Orange County and send a tendril from Sean Patrick Maloney’s district into the Bronx to make that safe.  All 22 Dem districts would have likely gone for Hillary.

Why would you pack 2 Republicans on Long Island?

Also Im guessing the packs would border each other right?
You could prob make atleast one tossup out of those 2 packs.

[lfromnj]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible. 

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

[lfromnj]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.  

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado.  He basically gets Hinchey’s old district.  Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.

Yeah its really tough to remove Katko without Ithaca,  I guess one could cook up some monstrosity or something Rochester is barely holding itself in a Likely/Safe D seat and its not much more with Buffalo.

[lfromnj]

Some of the Orthodox Jews in that seat were pretty pro Clinton IIRC because Bill Clinton gave some pardons to a group of them after they voted for Hillary in her 2000 Senate Campaign.

[lfromnj]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

[lfromnj]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

The governor is irrelevant to the process as long as Dems have a supermajority in both chambers.

Not completely irrelevant they can still guide and pressure and presumably has some allies in the legislature.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1329587898367283204

There is a tied state senate race in PA!