2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here

[Mr.Phips]

Early indications are that Democrats failed to win a supermajority in the New York Senate, and actually lost seats in the legislature as a whole:

GOP Gains Seats In New York State Legislature

State Senate Democrats needed to add two seats during Tuesday’s election to secure a “supermajority” in a chamber that was controlled by Republicans until 2018. A supermajority would have given Democrats two-thirds of the Senate’s seats, giving it the power to override vetoes from the governor’s office and giving senators more leverage.

Entering Tuesday’s election, Democrats held 106 seats in the state Assembly and 41 in the state Senate.

According to a summary of unofficial results in state Assembly and Senate races compiled Wednesday morning by the Associated Press, Republicans picked up five seats in the state Senate and nine seats in the state Assembly, leaving Democrats with a 96 members of the 150-seat Assembly and 36 members in the 60-seat Senate. Those results are far from final with thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted in counties throughout the state.

The New York results are going to get much bluer with absentees. Biden is only up 55%-43% statewide now.  That will expand to at least 60%-38% and the results in the downballot races will follow accordingly.

[Mr.Phips]

My little spreadsheet suggests that after thge absentee ballot fray is over the Pubs will pick up two seats and lose two seats, so no net change: 40D to 23R. The Dems needed to behead two state senate pubs net to get a two thirds majority, and control redistricting. That probably will not happen. The seat most in doubt is one that I have the Pub losing. But the statistical deviation of these absentee ballot projections is high.

What are the seats you have flipping?  I have Dems picking up the two Rochester seats, the Syracuse seat, and the Buffalo seat.  I have Republicans picking up the three LI seats, two Hudson Valley seats, and a Brooklyn seat.  Dems have a pretty good chance to pull ahead in one of the Hudson Valley seats, the Brooklyn seat, and two of the LI seats.  Is that where you are at? 

[Mr.Phips]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

[Mr.Phips]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

I feel like that could end up as a massive dummymander.

Not at all.  Pack all of rural Western NY and the Southern Tier into one district (Reed), pack the North Country and Republican areas in the Mohawk Valley into one district (Stefanik), and then pack two Republicans on Long Island.  For good measure, send a tendril from the Bronx/Yonkers district to grab very Republican parts of Orange County and send a tendril from Sean Patrick Maloney’s district into the Bronx to make that safe.  All 22 Dem districts would have likely gone for Hillary.

[Mr.Phips]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible. 

[Mr.Phips]

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327410632644304898?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1327432849188859905?s=20

Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.  

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado.  He basically gets Hinchey’s old district.  Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/final-results-for-florida-state-senate-district-37-race-expected-thursday/2320422/

I know this has already been posted, but this needs some more analysis.

The GOP flipped a seat that voted for Clinton by 2022. While Trump undoubtably did better in this district this year, this is a Murphy-Nelson district that in 2018 voted for every statewide Democrat by double digits. The GOP likely employed some tactics that have been effective for them in other races: ensuring a third party left wing candidate on the ballot.

Regardless, Democrats hoped to pickup 2 seats this cycle. Instead, they lost one, putting them several cycles back in their hopes to retake a chamber in an alleged "swing" state that they have not held since 1994.

In 2022, both the GOP and Democrats will have several offensive targets. In a Democratic midterm though, I would rather be the GOP. I will do an in depth analysis once more precinct data is present. The Democrats best chance at taking a seat is likely District 8, based around Gainesville where the incumbent is term-limited. The GOP has several prime targets, including Janet Cruz in Tampa Bay and Annette Taddeo, who represents a Hispanic seat in Miami that was only a Clinton +12 seat.

Stay tuned for more info, but the GOP could take a supermajority in both Florida chambers by 2022/2024.

I think Dems lost pretty much every one of their vulnerable seats in the Florida House this year (except for Adam Hattersley’s old seat).  At this point, I don’t know how many more seats Republicans could take there.  

In the Senate, the only vulnerable Dem seats are the Cruz and Taddeo seats.  Winning those would get Republicans to 26-14, which still isn’t two thirds.

[Mr.Phips]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

The governor is irrelevant to the process as long as Dems have a supermajority in both chambers.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1328873544143564801?s=20

Excellent. I hope Metzger and Harckham hold on upstate. Right now it seems like they are behind significantly. Metzger especially. It seems like SD-38 is going to flip unless there are a lot of absentee ballots still to count.

Dems held SD-38.  Harckham likely wins too once the Westchester absentees are counted.  Metzger is in a tougher position.