CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[2016]

When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

This is all I've seen so far.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyDabbundo/status/1326285688229294081

Katko though had a 55K lead on Election Night so Balter would need to make up a lot of Ground.

I'm still very much convinced Tenney & Malliotakis win here!

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Garcia still wins with the LA later dumps (maybe provisionals?) breaking R, but it will definitely be close.

Not sure about #CA21, but my instinct is that the race ends up bouncing between 51-52-48-49 Valadao-Cox with continuously less Democratic Kerns updates balanced by everything else. But I don't have a really good handle on the vote count there.

Biden won the first batch of Onandaga (Syracuse) mail-ins 80-17 (he had been winning the county 53-44) which makes me really curious about NY-22. Brindisi needs like 76% of the mail-ins assuming no ballots are disqualified and I think he'll get close.

For NJ-07, the reason I'm so sure that Kean will win is that everything out seems to be provisional and he'll net more from them in every county. It's just basic partisan vote disparity stuff, Joe Biden didn't even win the in-person votes in Mecklenburg County.

CA-25: I really like Mike Garcia and hope he wins. It'd be really weird so see him losing in this environment given what's happening downballot.

UT-4: I feel pretty confident that Owens will win at this point. McAdams is the last of the extremely vulnerable house Democrats (Peterson, Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, Rose, Brindisi) who haven't lost yet or are clearly headed for defeat.

NY-22: I'm confident Tenney's got this.

NJ-07: Hunterdon and Somerset seem to say otherwise. They're fully in and Malinowski is doing better than Clinton in both counties.

[2016]

New Alaska Results to be announced 9pm ET/5pm Alaska Time. Vote counting started this morning at 9am Alaska Time.

So, we could know in the next 75 Minutes if Dan Sullivan is reelected!

[n1240]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

Brindisi winning would be a pleasant surprise for Democrats in this awful cycle. With McAdams’ hopes fading, he could be the ”lone survivor” instead.

[Matty]

GOP candidate declares victory in Iowa 2nd

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

Brindisi winning would be a pleasant surprise for Democrats in this awful cycle. With McAdams’ hopes fading, he could be the ”lone survivor” instead.

McAdams is far from finished, but Brindisi winning would be great!

[2016]

It looks like this is Final pending a Recount

https://twitter.com/AustinHarrisIA/status/1326336969161502720?s=20

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 196,852

Rita Hart (D) 196,812

See here

https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/106279/web.264614/#/summary

Miller-Meeks seems to have won by 40 Votes.

[Roll Roons]

Are there a lot of absentees left in Iowa? NYT says only 89% is reporting in IA-02.

[2016]

Are there a lot of absentees left in Iowa? NYT says only 89% is reporting in IA-02.

NYT is wrong. If all of the 24 Counties have canvassed their Results then Absentees have to be included in this canvassed count!

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

[GALeftist]

It looks like this is Final pending a Recount

https://twitter.com/AustinHarrisIA/status/1326336969161502720?s=20

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 196,852

Rita Hart (D) 196,812

See here

https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/106279/web.264614/#/summary

Miller-Meeks seems to have won by 40 Votes.

Unlike certain other examples we've seen lately, this is definitely a recount margin.

[Tekken_Guy]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

Malinowski is going to win

I expect Smith to win, and probably a surprise perhaps from NY or one of the other races.

[2016]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

Malinowski is going to win

I expect Smith to win, and probably a surprise perhaps from NY or one of the other races.

I can give you NJ-7 (Malinowski) and CA-25 (Smith). The others so called surprised in NY: Forget about it. Not going to happen!

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

Malinowski is going to win

I expect Smith to win, and probably a surprise perhaps from NY or one of the other races.

I can give you NJ-7 (Malinowski) and CA-25 (Smith). The others so called surprised in NY: Forget about it. Not going to happen!

ok sure

[GALeftist]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. It looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 219.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 220.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 221.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

AK-AL: Frankly I think Al Gross was the one sleeping, because unless he knows for certain that the next two dumps are going to be substantially more D-leaning than the most recent one, I have no reason to believe there's an Alaskan upset in the cards, either for PRES, SEN, or AK-AL. Likely R bordering on Safe (and I think that's pretty generous all things considered), Rs at 211.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

Calling it for Tenney based off that info.

[Tekken_Guy]

So I guess the lone survivor was....Jared Golden!

[Matty]

Alaska just dumped 50,000 ballots

[100% pro-life no matter what]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

I think CA-34 is already in the Democrats' total of 218, because there are 16 races out there not counting it:

CA- 21, 25, 39
NY- 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 19, 22, 24
UT-4
AK-1
IA-2
IL-14
LA-5

[Tekken_Guy]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

Kean is underperforming Trump’s 2016 numbers across the board in the district. That’s probably not what he wants,

[LimoLiberal]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

Yeah, but Malinowski's going to lose in NJ-07 and CA-10 will be closer than expected, though Harder will still probably win.

[LimoLiberal]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

Kean is underperforming Trump’s 2016 numbers across the board in the district. That’s probably not what he wants,

Have faith.

[Benjamin Frank]

Alaska just dumped 50,000 ballots

The suspense was killing me. :/