CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.

everything we've seen in the past day or two seems like a slight tilt towards Brindisi

[2016]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.

everything we've seen in the past day or two seems like a slight tilt towards Brindisi

No, it isn't. Just like bandg & Wasserman said. It's a pure TOSS UP! Wasserman estimated less than 1K either way. Brindisi can win but so can Tenney!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.

everything we've seen in the past day or two seems like a slight tilt towards Brindisi

No, it isn't. Just like bandg & Wasserman said. It's a pure TOSS UP! Wasserman estimated less than 1K either way. Brindisi can win but so can Tenney!

You hope

[2016]

New ABC NEWS House Tally (probably now the most accurate out of the four TV Networks)

DEMOCRATS 219
REPUBLICANS 207
Undecided 9 (CA-21, CA-25, IA-2, LA-5 (Runoff); NY-2, NY-3, NY-18; NY-19, NY-22)

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-house-election-results-live-map

If we give the DEMS NY-3, NY-18, NY-19 they will be at 222
If we give the GOP CA-21, IA-2, LA-5 and NY-2 they will be at 211 Seats
Pure Toss Up CA-25 and NY-22

So, the new House could either be 224-211 or 222-213!

[Storr]

New ABC NEWS House Tally (probably now the most accurate out of the four TV Networks)

DEMOCRATS 219
REPUBLICANS 207
Undecided 9 (CA-21, CA-25, IA-2, LA-5 (Runoff); NY-2, NY-3, NY-18; NY-19, NY-22)

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-house-election-results-live-map

If we give the DEMS NY-3, NY-18, NY-19 they will be at 222
If we give the GOP CA-21, IA-2, LA-5 and NY-2 they will be at 211 Seats
Pure Toss Up CA-25 and NY-22

So, the new House could either be 224-211 or 222-213!

However the few uncalled races left go, with a such a slim majority for the Democrats, all special elections this Congress, no matter how remote the possibility they might be competitive, will garner serious interest from the national parties and media.

[StateBoiler]

New ABC NEWS House Tally (probably now the most accurate out of the four TV Networks)

DEMOCRATS 219
REPUBLICANS 207
Undecided 9 (CA-21, CA-25, IA-2, LA-5 (Runoff); NY-2, NY-3, NY-18; NY-19, NY-22)

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-house-election-results-live-map

If we give the DEMS NY-3, NY-18, NY-19 they will be at 222
If we give the GOP CA-21, IA-2, LA-5 and NY-2 they will be at 211 Seats
Pure Toss Up CA-25 and NY-22

So, the new House could either be 224-211 or 222-213!

However the few uncalled races left go, with a such a slim majority for the Democrats, all special elections this Congress, no matter how remote the possibility they might be competitive, will garner serious interest from the national parties and media.

Richmond has announced he will make it official and join the Biden administration. He'll probably be there for beginning of Congress and the seat is safe Democrat, but for the 2 to 3 months it'll take to choose his successor, that's a reduced majority by 1 for the Democrats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

[wbrocks67]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

I think someone posted their schedule and there should be another dump tonight

[Roll Roons]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

This, but for Tom Kean. Obviously I'll be disappointed if he doesn't win, but I'd much rather just get it over with instead of constantly stressing about it.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

You'll get your relief by 4:30 today, counting ends at 4pm, they're only counting 2 days a week for 6 hours a week.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

They're only counting 2 days a week for 6 hours a week.

That's appalling.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

They're only counting 2 days a week for 6 hours a week.

That's appalling.

Gotta love our home man

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328797714574757889

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328797714574757889

This very well could go to a recount. I think Malinowski also has a fund.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

They're only counting 2 days a week for 6 hours a week.

That's appalling.

Gotta love our home man

In LA, the only thing that goes slower than the traffic is the vote counting.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Is there any update on when Los Angeles County is gonna dump some more ballots? It's been a week and I need to see Christy Smith take the lead.

*prays*

They're only counting 2 days a week for 6 hours a week.

That's appalling.

Gotta love our home man

In LA, the only thing that goes slower than the traffic is the vote counting.

I'd laugh if it wasn't true.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328809146536214529

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1328802386354311168

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328827087382261761

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1328829320802959361?s=19

[BudgieForce]

Oof. Not over for Smith. But that's bad news.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1328829320802959361?s=19

WOW,
all of the sudden this now looks more promising for Mike Garcia. 371 Vote-lead! How many Ballots are left to count! Can't be too many now!

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1328829320802959361?s=19

WOW,
all of the sudden this now looks more promising for Mike Garcia. 371 Vote-lead! How many Ballots are left to count! Can't be too many now!

On Sunday the Ventura county manager said that there were only around 2700 votes remaining in the whole district, that would mean there's only 500 or so votes left. I'm shocked they announced already, I wasn't expecting until they finished counting today.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328831798676054016

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1328810802707636224

Morris County added a new batch that went 51.6% for Kean. The article says that Morris County should is done minus some provisionals and cure letters.